基于力学平衡模型的长三角港口物流发展协调性研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于港口物流协调发展理论分析框架,构建相应的综合评价指标体系和协调性判别模型,对长三角13个港口物流发展协调性进行综合评判。结果表明：长三角已形成较为明显的以上海港为核心,宁波-舟山港、苏州港和南京港为副中心,其余港口为重要补充的多层次港口物流规模等级结构;港口物流协调发展层次总体偏低,以低水平协调型为主,且港口物流发展协调度与综合发展度间存在紧密联系,呈现明显的“U”型曲线特征;港口物流协调发展偏离方向集中化特征不明显,制约不同港口物流协调发展的主要因素存在较大区别,同时就物流运营发展滞后型、城市支撑发展滞后型和基础设施发展滞后型港口分别提出改进方向。

关键词: 港口物流, 指标体系, 协调性, 港口地理学, 长三角

Abstract:

Based on the idea of systems theory, one new theoretical analytical framework for port logistics coordinated development is proposed by the authors. The framework consists of three subsystems, including port infrastructure, logistics operation, and city support. On the basis of it, one comprehensive index system of port logistics coordinated development is established in this research. It contains 3 second grade indexes and 14 third grade indexes. This article abstracts the coupling relationship, between the three subsystems, into vector relation of three forces with different direction in Cartesian coordinate system. Then, the authors construct the coupling coordination discriminate model of port logistics development, by combing the comprehensive evaluation index system with the mechanical model. Furthermore, by using the natural and social economic statistic data from 13 container ports in the Yangtze River Delta in 2013, the comprehensive development level, the coordinated development state and the main restrictive factors of port logistics development are estimated and quantified. The results show that: 1) There are some significant differences in the comprehensive development degree of port logistics among the Yangtze River Delta port system, and it has formed a multi-level port logistics hierarchical structure. Shanghai is the center, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Suzhou and Nanjing are the sub-centers, and the rest of the ports is the supplement. 2) There are some obvious differences in the coordination degree of port logistics in the Yangtze River Delta post system. The overall level of coordination is obviously low. The Yangtze River Delta post system includes five kinds of coordination development types, of which the low-level coordination type is the main types, and it covers 7 ports, accounting for 53.85% of the total ports. In particular, the comprehensive development degree is closely linked with the coordination degree of port logistics, and the relation is in line with the ‘U-shaped’ curve. 3) The concentration characteristic of the deviated direction of the coordination degree is not obvious. The quantity of ports in the lag type of the port infrastructure, logistics operation and city support subsystems is approximately the same. Finally, how to promote the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta port logistics has carried on the preliminary discussion.

Key words: port logistics, index system, coordination, Port Geography, the Yangtze River Delta

中图分类号:

F552.7

叶士琳, 曹有挥, 蒋自然, 王佳韡. 基于力学平衡模型的长三角港口物流发展协调性研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1624-1631.

Shilin Ye, Youhui Cao, Ziran Jiang, Jiawei Wang. Coordination of Port Logistics Development Based on Mechanical Model: A Case of the Yangtze River Delta Port System[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(11): 1624-1631.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	单位	权重
港口物流综合发展度	基础设施发展度（OA）	生产用泊位数	个	0.21
		生产用码头长度	m	0.23
		航道水深	m	0.22
		集装箱航线数	条	0.34
	物流运营发展度（OB）	货物吞吐量	t	0.18
		集装箱吞吐量	TEU	0.32
		集装箱吞吐量增长率^①	%	0.13
		物流企业发展指数^②	—	0.20
		集装箱运输组织能力^③	—	0.17
	城市支撑发展度（OC）	地区生产总值	亿元	0.16
		第三产业比重	%	0.21
		进出口贸易总额	亿美元	0.29
		金融机构贷款余额	亿元	0.21
		人力-信息指数^④	—	0.13

港口物流协调发展类型	发展阶段	协调状态	港口	比重（%）
高水平协调型	高水平	协调	上海港（0.57）	7.69
中等水平基本协调型	中等水平	基本协调	南京港（1.58）	7.69
中等水平失调型	中等水平	失调	宁波-舟山港（5.43）、苏州港（3.23）	15.38
低水平协调型	低水平	协调	温州港（0.84）、南通港（0.87）、嘉兴港（0.95）、台州港（0.63）、镇江港（0.33）、泰州港（0.51）、扬州港（0.54）	53.85
低水平基本协调型	低水平	基本协调	江阴港（0.49）、连云港港（1.77）	15.38