安徽省人口年龄结构特征及其社会经济影响研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据人口普查和抽样调查的数据资料,采用对比分析、聚类分析等研究方法分析了1953~2015年安徽省人口年龄结构时间特征、空间特征。从时间上看,安徽省人口年龄结构不断演变,少儿人口数量从不断增加转变为不断减少,劳动适龄人口比重比较稳定,人口老龄化程度不断加深,总抚养系数和少年儿童抚养系数大幅度下降,老年抚养系数上升;从空间上看,人口年龄结构存在较大地区差异。安徽省人口年龄结构对社会经济发展的影响主要表现为：① 人口老年化导致劳动生产率和经济增长速度的减缓,家庭规模小型化,并对社会养老保障和医疗卫生的挑战;② 少儿人口的不断减少影响教育资源的配置;③ 人口年龄结构的区域差异进一步加剧了安徽区域发展的不平衡性。为了尽可能地减缓人口年龄结构演变对安徽省社会经济发展的不利影响,建议采取如下措施：一是充分利用“人口红利”机遇期,加快经济发展,不断促进社会进步;二是要加强引导,因地施策;三是完善社会保障制度,努力扩大社会保障制度的覆盖面,力争全覆盖,尽量减小城乡差距;四是大力发展养老产业,探索建立满足居家养老、社区养老、机构养老等多种方式需求的政府主导、政策扶持、社会参与、市场运作的社会化养老服务体系。

关键词: 人口年龄结构, 人口老龄化, 社会经济影响, 安徽省

Abstract:

Anhui is a province with a large population. Its age structure has an important impetus to the speed, type and trend of population development, thus affecting the social and economic development. According to the data of population census and sample survey, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of population age structure in Anhui Province from 1953 to 2015 by contrastive analysis and cluster analysis. From the temporal point of view, the population age structure here has been evolving. The number of children decreases compared with that of the past. The proportion of working-age population is relatively stable. The aging of the population is worsening. The total dependency coefficient and the children dependency coefficient have decreased to a large degree while the dependency coefficient of the elderly has increased. From the spatial point of view, the population age structure varies in regions. The impacts of the population age structure of Anhui Province on the social and economic development are as follows. First, the aging of population leads to the slowdown of labor productivity and economic growth, the miniaturization of family size, and the challenge of social security and health care. Second, the decreasing population of children affects the allocation of educational resources. Finally, The regional disparity of population age structure further aggravates the imbalance of Anhui regional development. In order to minimize the negative impact of the demographic age structure on the social and economic development of Anhui Province, we propose the following measures. First, the opportunity of “population dividend” period needs to be made full use of to accelerate economic development and promote social progress. Second, policies, under the guidance, are to be adopted according to regional differences. Third, the social security system needs to be improved so that its coverage can be expanded to the fullest and the gap between urban and rural areas in this aspect can be minimized. Fourth, the pension industry is to be vigorously developed and a socialized pension service system led by the government, supported by policies, participated by the society and operated in the market can be established to meet the various needs of pension at home, in communities, or in institutions.

Key words: population age structure, aging population, socio-economic impacts, Anhui Province

中图分类号:

C921

汪静. 安徽省人口年龄结构特征及其社会经济影响研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1728-1735.

Jing Wang. Characteristics of the Age Structure of Anhui Population and Its Socio-economic Impacts[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(11): 1728-1735.

图/表 5

表1

1953~2015年安徽省人口年龄结构状况"

年份	总人口（万人）	0~14岁人口比重（%）	15~64岁人口比重（%）	65岁以上人口比重（%）	老少比（%）	年龄中位数（岁）	少儿抚养系数（%）	老年抚养系数（%）	总抚养系数（%）
1953	3034	36.06	61.23	3.71	10.29	23.04	59.87	6.16	66.03
1964	3124	38.42	59.23	2.35	6.12	20.98	64.89	3.97	68.86
1982	4967	36.15	59.77	4.08	11.30	24.02	60.48	6.83	67.31
1990	5618	28.39	66.12	5.39	19.04	24.02	42.89	8.16	51.05
1991	5737	28.23	65.83	5.94	21.05	24.82	42.88	9.03	51.92
1992	5794	27.96	65.95	6.09	21.78	25.16	42.40	9.24	51.64
1993	5825	26.56	67.12	6.32	23.80	25.28	39.57	9.24	48.99
1994	5889	26.60	67.00	6.40	24.06	25.39	39.70	9.55	49.25
1995	5923	27.33	65.94	6.73	24.61	26.38	41.45	10.20	51.65
1996	5957	26.63	66.87	6.50	24.41	27.95	39.82	9.72	49.54
1997	5992	26.04	67.25	6.71	25.77	28.35	38.72	9.98	48.70
1998	6016	24.95	67.00	7.02	28.14	29.52	36.67	10.32	46.99
1999	6051	24.60	68.01	7.38	30.00	30.63	36.17	10.85	47.02
2000	6093	25.52	65.94	7.45	29.79	30.38	38.10	11.35	49.45
2001	6128	25.47	66.39	8.14	32.57	31.08	37.10	12.09	49.19
2002	6144	24.36	66.87	8.50	34.89	32.22	36.28	12.65	48.93
2003	6163	23.43	67.39	9.19	39.22	33.46	34.77	13.63	48.40
2004	6228	22.82	67.25	9.30	40.75	34.16	33.63	13.69	47.32
2005	6120	23.07	66.84	10.09	43.69	34.32	34.51	15.08	49.59
2006	6110	21.48	68.03	10.16	47.30	35.04	31.42	14.86	46.28
2007	6118	20.41	68.87	10.72	52.52	35.86	29.64	15.57	45.20
2008	6135	19.81	68.02	11.15	56.28	36.25	28.70	16.15	44.85
2009	6132	19.40	69.17	11.43	58.92	37.79	28.05	16.52	44.57
2010	5957	17.77	71.80	10.43	57.57	36.36	24.68	14.21	38.89
2011	5968	18.59	70.00	11.41	61.36	38.83	26.56	16.30	42.86
2012	5988	18.35	69.57	12.08	65.83	39.79	26.37	17.36	43.73
2013	6030	18.51	69.52	12.24	66.15	40.12	26.72	17.68	44.40
2014	6083	18.68	69.61	11.71	62.72	39.40	26.83	16.83	43.66
2015	6143	18.74	69.53	11.73	62.59	40.06	26.95	16.87	43.82

表1

图1

图2

表2

图3

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	0~14岁人口比重		15~64岁人口比重		65岁及以上人口比重		少儿人口抚养比		老年人口抚养比
	1998年	2014年	1998年	2014年	1998年	2014年	1998年	2014年	1998年	2014年
合肥	24.84	15.36	67.99	73.22	7.17	11.42	36.53	20.98	10.54	15.60
淮北	26.05	16.98	67.14	72.69	6.81	10.34	38.80	23.36	10.14	14.22
亳州	26.51	25.15	66.14	64.83	7.35	10.01	40.08	38.80	11.11	15.44
宿州	29.13	21.44	63.17	66.14	7.70	12.42	46.11	32.41	12.19	18.77
蚌埠	26.76	19.94	65.60	68.25	7.64	11.81	40.79	29.21	11.65	17.30
淮南	25.97	17.60	66.63	70.44	7.40	11.96	38.98	24.99	11.11	17.05
阜阳	28.48	26.30	64.93	62.96	6.59	10.73	43.86	41.78	10.15	16.97
滁州	25.09	14.92	67.30	74.22	7.61	10.87	37.28	20.10	11.31	14.64
六安	24.27	19.81	69.20	67.53	6.53	12.66	35.07	29.34	9.44	18.75
马鞍山	21.61	13.46	71.70	72.63	6.69	13.91	30.14	18.54	9.33	19.15
芜湖	21.75	13.47	71.22	75.14	7.03	11.39	30.54	17.93	9.87	15.15
宣城	21.17	13.84	71.36	71.78	7.47	14.38	29.67	19.28	10.47	20.03
铜陵	20.07	14.60	73.94	72.97	5.99	12.43	27.14	20.01	8.10	17.04
池州	22.46	15.23	70.65	72.82	6.89	11.95	31.79	20.91	9.75	16.41
安庆	25.30	16.08	68.46	72.54	6.42	11.37	36.96	22.17	9.38	15.68
黄山	21.52	14.14	70.68	70.47	7.80	15.39	30.45	20.07	11.04	21.84
巢湖	25.16	–	66.96	–	7.88	–	37.57	–	11.77	–