近50年新疆天山奎屯河流域冰川变化及其对水资源的影响

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.020

地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 1771-1777.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.11.020

近50年新疆天山奎屯河流域冰川变化及其对水资源的影响

张慧^1,²(), 李忠勤¹, 牟建新³, 何海迪³

1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室/天山冰川观测试验站,甘肃兰州 730000
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州 730070

收稿日期:2016-11-08 修回日期:2017-05-11 出版日期:2017-11-20 发布日期:2017-11-20
作者简介:
作者简介：张慧（1989-）,男,内蒙古巴彦淖尔人,博士研究生,主要从事冰川变化与物质平衡研究。E-mail:zhanghuii126@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41471058)资助

Impact of the Glacier Change on Water Resources in the Kuytun River Basin, Tianshan Mountains During Recent 50 Years

Hui Zhang^1,²(), Zhongqin Li¹, Jianxin Mu³, Haidi He³

1. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science/TianShan Glaciological Station, Northwest Institution of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu,China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3.College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China

Received:2016-11-08 Revised:2017-05-11 Online:2017-11-20 Published:2017-11-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41471058)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于地形图、遥感影像、气象与水文资料,对气候变化背景下奎屯河流域近50 a冰川变化及其对水资源的影响进行了研究。结果表明：1964~2015年该流域冰川面积减小了约65.4 km²,冰储量亏损了约4.39 km³,且2000年后冰川消融与退缩加快。消融期内正积温增大带来的冰川物质支出（消融）高于源自年内降水的冰川物质收入（积累）是造成该流域冰川消融与退缩的主要原因。1964~2010年该流域径流年际变化总体呈上升趋势,1993年后径流增加趋势显著,且周期性丰枯变化发生了改变。52 a间该流域冰储量亏损引发的水资源损失量达39.5×10⁸m³,年均亏损量约占多年平均径流量的12%,且20世纪80年代后冰川融水在径流中所占比重增大。

关键词: 奎屯河流域, 冰川退缩, 气候变化, 径流变化, 冰川融水

Abstract:

Based on topographic maps, remote sensing images, meteorological and hydrological data, glacier change and its impact on water resources are investigated in the Kuytun River Basin under the background of climatic change. Results show that glacier area decreased by 65.4 km² with a retreating rate of -32.6%, 31 glaciers disappeared, and mean glacier area reduced by 0.19 km² from 1964 to 2015. Loss of glacier volume is approximately 4.39 km³with an annual loss rate of 0.084 km³in 52 years. APAC(Annual percentage of area change)increases since 2000,which indicates that accelerated glacier shrinkage is observed.

Annual mean temperature in the basin exhibits a marked rising trend over the study period with a tendency rate of 0.39℃/10a. Results of MK(Mann-Kendall) mutation test indicate that mutation point of annual mean temperature occurs in 1988, and annual mean temperature increased rapidly since 1988.There is no mutation year for annual precipitation, which exhibits a slightly decreased tendency from 1964 to 2009. Present-day glacier shrinkage is a mix response to past and current climate fluctuation, and glacier ablation is highly correlated to the positive accumulated temperature over the ablation period, while accumulation is originated from the annual precipitation. The analysis shows that expenditure of glacier mass (ablation) caused by the positive accumulated temperature increase during the ablation period larger than mass income (accumulation) originated from annual precipitation is the main reason for glacier retreat.

There is a rising trend for annual runoff with a tendency rate of 0.13×10⁸m³/10a from 1964 to 2010, and mean annual runoff is approximately 6.54×10⁸m³. Annual runoff is on the decline from 1964 to 1993, but displays an upward tendency since 1993. Results of wavelet analysis show that there exists the periodic fluctuation of 3-15 years approximately for annual runoff, which also change since 1993, and maximum wet season appears in the period of 1995-2000. Results of MK mutation test show that no mutation year is found for annual runoff in 47 years.

Net loss of water resources caused by glacier ablation is approximately 39.5×10⁸m³ with an annual loss rate of 0.76×10⁸m³/a, which accounts for 12% of mean annual runoff over the study period. Affected by climatic warming, glacial meltwater increased since 1980s and its proportion in annual runoff rose. Besides, glacier coverage of the basin decreased by 3.4% in 52 years. With the ice loss gradually, the contribution of glacial meltwater to runoff would decrease step by step in the future forecasting warming scenario. Despite the importance of glacier for the local hydrological cycle, there is urgent necessity to reinforce the monitoring and study of glacier status, which could provide the better decision-making value for assessment, allocation and sustainable utilization of local water resources.

Key words: the Kuytun River Basin, glacier retreat, climatic change, runoff variation, glacial melt water

中图分类号:

P343.6

张慧, 李忠勤, 牟建新, 何海迪. 近50年新疆天山奎屯河流域冰川变化及其对水资源的影响[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1771-1777.

Hui Zhang, Zhongqin Li, Jianxin Mu, Haidi He. Impact of the Glacier Change on Water Resources in the Kuytun River Basin, Tianshan Mountains During Recent 50 Years[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(11): 1771-1777.

图/表 6

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ID	接收年份	传感器	分辨率 (m)	轨道号
LE71440302000220SGS00	2000年	ETM+	30	144/30
LE71450302000179EDC00	2000年	ETM+	30	145/30
LE71440302015197NPA00	2015年	ETM+	30	144/30
LC81450302015196LGN00	2015年	OLI/TIRS	30	145/30

近50年新疆天山奎屯河流域冰川变化及其对水资源的影响

Impact of the Glacier Change on Water Resources in the Kuytun River Basin, Tianshan Mountains During Recent 50 Years

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