1958~2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.12.013

地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12): 1894-1899.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.12.013

1958~2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析

杨春利¹(), 蓝永超², 王宁练^3,⁴, 王启优⁵, 李亚林⁶

1.甘肃省社会科学院区域经济研究所,甘肃兰州 730070
2.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃兰州 730000
3.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室, 陕西西安 710127
4.西北大学地表系统与灾害研究院,陕西西安 710127
5.甘肃省水文水资源局,甘肃兰州 730000
6.甘肃省疏勒河流域水资源管理局,甘肃玉门 735211

收稿日期:2016-12-14 修回日期:2017-02-20 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2017-12-20
作者简介:
作者简介：杨春利(1982-),男,助理研究员,主要从事资源环境与区域可持续发展研究。E-mail:yangchunli802@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划课题（2017YFC0404302）资助

Mountainous Runoff Changes and Climate Factors Analysis of the Shule River Basin in 1958-2015

Chunli Yang¹(), Yongchao Lan², Ninglian Wang^3,⁴, Qiyou Wang⁵, Yalin Li⁶

1. Institute of Regional Economy, Gansu Academy of Social Sciences, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
2. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology in Inland River Basin, Northwest Institute of Eco-Envrionment and Reources, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
3. Key Laboratory of Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an 710069, Shaanxi, China;
4. Institute of Surface System and Disaster Rresearch, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, Shaanxi, China;
5. Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
6. Shule River Basin Water Resources Bureau of Gansu Province, Yumen 735211, Gansu, China

Received:2016-12-14 Revised:2017-02-20 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-12-20
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program (2017YFC0404302).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1958~2015年疏勒河出山口昌马堡水文站径流资料以及同期流域气象资料,揭示了疏勒河出山径流及其对流域气候变化的响应。结果表明：总体上,疏勒河出山径流量呈现增加趋势,特别是20世纪90年代后期以来,出山径流增加趋势更为明显,但近几年,疏勒河出山径流量缓慢回落,21世纪初暂时成为代际变化的拐点。研究亦显示,疏勒河出山径流对河源处高海拔山区气候变化的响应更为敏感,出山径流年际变化实际受到山区气候因素的共同影响,不同时段各因素影响强度具有一定差异;降水是出山径流变化的主控因素,但气温升高导致冰雪融化加快是近年来出山径流增长较快的重要原因。定量分析表明,20世纪90年代后期以来气温等对径流影响比重超过60%,而降水约为30%左右。

关键词: 疏勒河流域, 出山径流, 气候变化

Abstract:

Mountainous runoff is very important to the inland river basin in Northwest China, because it is related to the oasis ecological environment security and the social and economic sustainable development in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. Therefore, more and more studies are focused on the changes of mountainous runoff under the climate change in this region. The Shule River is one of the three largest inland river in Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, Northwest China. Based on the runoff data at Changmabu hydrological station and the meteorological data of the Shule River Basin during the period 1958-2015, this article analyzed the characteristics of mountainous runoff of the Shule River Basin and its response to the climate change. The trend of mountainous runoff is analyzed by the line trend method. The mutation of mountainous runoff is analyzed by the Cumulative departure method. Morerover, the evapotranspiration is calculated by the Takahashi formula, and the relationships between mountainous runoff and climate factors are analyzed by the Correlation and Sliding correlation method. The main results were obtained as follows: In general, the mountainous runoff of the Shule River Basin presents an increasing trend in the research periods, and this trend was more obvious since the late 1990s, however, it is declined slowly in recent years. Moreover, the runoff series appears an obvious mutation in 1997. Finally, the correlation analysis shows that precipitation was the main control factor for the mountainous runoff changes. At the same time, the increased snow and ice melt caused by the rising temperature was the main reason for the changes of mountainous run off in recent years. In a word, the variability of runoff depends on the comprehensive impact of the climate factors for the effect of each factor is inconsistent in different stage.

Key words: the Shule River Basin, mountainous runoff, climate change

中图分类号:

P343

杨春利, 蓝永超, 王宁练, 王启优, 李亚林. 1958~2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(12): 1894-1899.

Chunli Yang, Yongchao Lan, Ninglian Wang, Qiyou Wang, Yalin Li. Mountainous Runoff Changes and Climate Factors Analysis of the Shule River Basin in 1958-2015[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(12): 1894-1899.

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站点	观测资料	经纬度	海拔(m)	年降水量(mm)	年均温(℃)	资料年限
托勒	气温、降水等	98°25′E,38°48′N	3367	299	-2.52	1958~2015年
鱼儿红	降水	97°16′E,39°04′N	3030	133		1958~2015年
昌马堡	径流、气温、降水	96°51′E,39°49′N	2080	97	5.1	1958~2015年

时间序列	降水			气温			蒸散量
时间序列	托勒		鱼儿红	昌马堡	托勒	昌马堡	托勒
1	-0.048	0.274	0.225	0.421**	0.371*		-0.093
2	-0.091	0.386*	-0.073	0.455**	0.134		-0.066
3	-0.085	0.106	0.112	0.165	-0.063		-0.104
4	0.026	0.283	0.214	0.545**	0.380*		0.062
5	0.258	0.138	0.403**	0.394**	0.008		0.226
6	0.559**	0.481**	0.091	0.275*	-0.291		0.579**
7	0.442**	0.173	0.201	0.590**	-0.265		0.605**
8	0.390**	0.159	0.192	0.671**	-0.029		0.528**
9	0.645**	0.488**	0.523**	0.603**	-0.267		0.542**
10	0.218	0.407**	0.334*	0.355**	-0.094		0.223
11	0.117	0.279	0.093	0.364**	0.543**		0.111
12	0.197	0.013	0.188	0.305*	0.308		0.202
春	0.141	0.390**	0.339*	0.308*	0.003		0.106
夏	0.463**	0.213	0.115	0.653**	-0.197		0.647**
秋	0.638**	0.596**	0.531**	0.501**	-0.132		0.562**
冬	-0.037	0.290	0.149	0.562**	0.261		-0.059
年	0.634**	0.421*	0.380*	0.619**	-0.090		0.687**

时段	径流量（×10⁸m³）		变化量（×10⁸m³）	降水			气温等
时段	实测值		理论值		变化值	比重（%）	变化值	比重（%）
1997年前	8.67
1998~2010年	12.62	9.97	3.95	1.3	33		2.65	67
2011~2015年	12.56	10.17	3.89	1.5	39		2.39	61

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1958~2015年疏勒河上游出山径流变化及其气候因素分析

Mountainous Runoff Changes and Climate Factors Analysis of the Shule River Basin in 1958-2015

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