1960~2014年淮河流域极端气温和降水时空变化特征

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.12.014

地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12): 1900-1908.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.12.014

1960~2014年淮河流域极端气温和降水时空变化特征

王怀军¹(), 潘莹萍¹, 陈忠升²

1.淮阴师范学院城市与环境学院,江苏淮安 223300
2.西华师范大学国土资源学院, 四川南充 637002

收稿日期:2016-12-12 修回日期:2017-01-05 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2017-12-20
作者简介:
作者简介：王怀军（1986-）,男,湖南永州人,讲师,博士,主要从事极端气候事件、水资源管理等方面研究。E-mail:wanghj@ms.xjb.ac.cn
基金资助:
江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目（16KJB170001）,国家自然科学基金（41701034）,淮安科技项目重点研发计划（社会发展）（HAS2015005-2）项目资助

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Huaihe River Basin, China in 1960-2014

Huaijun Wang¹(), Yingping Pan¹, Zhongsheng Chen²

1.School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an 223300, Jiangsu, China;
2. School of Land and Resources, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, Sichuan, China

Received:2016-12-12 Revised:2017-01-05 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-12-20
Supported by:
Natural Science Fund for Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province (16KJB170001), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41701034), Science & Technology Plan Projects of Huaian, China (HAS2015005-2).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于淮河流域33个气象站点1960~2014年逐日气温和降水数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验和克里金插值法分析了极端气温、降水指数的时空变化规律。结果表明：① 近55 a来,冷极值呈显著下降趋势,暖极值表现为波动上升趋势;日较差（DTR）呈显著下降趋势,这与最低气温的增加幅度比最高气温大有关;② 总降水量（PRCPTOT）和强降水日数（R10,R20）表现为缓慢下降趋势,1 d最大降水量（RX1day）、连续5 d最大降水（RX5day）以及降水强度（SDII）呈缓慢上升趋势,但变化趋势均不显著;③ 空间变化上来看,霜冻日数（FD0）、冷夜日数（TN10p）、热夜日数（TR20）和暖夜日数（TN90p）在流域大部分地区变化趋势显著,而降水极值在全流域未表现出一致上升或下降趋势,且变化趋势在全流域均不显著;④ 基于流域当前气象站点数据,极端气温、降水指数变化趋势未表现出高程相依性;⑤ 流域大部分极端气温、降水指数变化趋势介于中国南北方流域之间,表现出一定的南北过渡带特色。

关键词: 极端降水, 极端气温, Mann-Kendall 检验, 淮河流域

Abstract:

The frequency of extreme climatic events is increasing under the background of climate change, which leads to a significant impact on production and livelihood. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation indices had been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and Kriging interpolation, and the relationships between trend magnitudes of climate extremes and elevations were also discussed based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 33 meteorological stations over the Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2014. The results showed that: 1) the cold indices (FD0, ID0, TN10p, TX10p and CSDI) showed significantly decreasing trends; FD0 and TN10p decreased by -4.14 and -1.76 days per decade respectively. The warm indices (TN90p, TX90p, SU25, TR20 and WSDI) exhibited increasing trends; TN90p, TR20 and SU25 increased significantly by 3.01, 1.99 and 3.18 days per decade, respectively. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) showed a significant downward trend because of the minimum temperature increases larger than the maximum temperature. 2) No significant changes for extreme precipitation indices were observed over the past 55 years. PRCPTOT, R10 and R20 showed a slow downward trend, while RX1day, RX5day, as well as the SDII showed a slowly rising trend. 3) From the spatial distribution characteristics of temperature indices, FD0, TN10p, TR20 and TN90p showed significant variations over the most area of the basin; FD0 and TN10p decreased from the center region to the northeastern and southwestern region of the basin; TR20 and TN90p showed the largest increasing rate in the center part of the basin. Considering the extreme precipitation indices, no indices exhibited significant changes over the whole basin. 4) No significant relationships were observed between temperature, precipitation extremes and elevation based on the data captured from current meteorological stations. This indicated that the elevation dependency is deficiency in the Huaihe River Basin, China. 5) The variation trends of extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Huaihe River Basin are approximately between the Yellow River Valley and the Pearl River, which showed the characteristics of the North-South transition zone. This study is of great significance to the sustainable development of water resources in the Huaihe River Basin, the construction of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the disaster prevention and reduction.

Key words: precipitation extremes, temperature extremes, Mann-Kendall test, the Huaihe River Basin

中图分类号:

P429

王怀军, 潘莹萍, 陈忠升. 1960~2014年淮河流域极端气温和降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(12): 1900-1908.

Huaijun Wang, Yingping Pan, Zhongsheng Chen. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Huaihe River Basin, China in 1960-2014[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(12): 1900-1908.

图/表 8

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类别	指标名称	定义	单位
冷极值	霜冻日数(FD0)	日最低气温小于0℃的日数	d
	结冰日数(ID0)	日最高气温小于0℃的全部日数	d
	冷夜日数(TN10p)	日最低气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
	冷昼日数(TX10p)	日最高气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
	冷日持续指数(CSDI)	每年至少连续6日最低气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
暖极值	暖夜日数(TN90p)	日最低气温大于90%分位值的日数	d
	暖昼日数(TX90p)	日最高气温大于90%分位值的日数	d
	夏日日数(SU25)	日最高气温大于25℃的日数	d
	热夜日数(TR20)	日最低气温大于20℃的日数	d
	热日持续指数(WSDI)	每年至少连续6日最低气温小于10%分位值的日数	d
极值变异	日较差(DTR)	最高气温与最低气温差值	℃
降水极值	年总降水量（PRCPTOT）	年内日降水量≥1 mm 的降水量总量	mm
	降水强度（SDII）	年总降水量与降水日数比值	mm/d
	中雨日数（R10）	日降水≥10 mm的日数	d
	大雨日数（R20）	日降水≥20 mm的日数	d
	1日最大降水量（RX1day）	每月最大1日降水量	mm
	5日最大降水量（RX5day）	每月连续5日最大降水量	mm

指数（单位）	淮河流域	长江流域^[25,26]	黄河流域^[27]	珠江流域^[28,29]
FD0 (d/10a)	-4.14	-3.04	-3.36	-0.68
ID0 (d/10a)	-0.44	-0.42	-2.40	-0.02
CSDI (d/10a)	-0.38	-1.60	-1.12	-0.56
TN10p (d/10a)	-1.76	-3.45	-1.93	-1.23
TX10p (d/10a)	-0.55	-1.03	-1.06	-0.02
DTR (℃/10a)	-0.17	-0.09	-0.09	-0.11
TN90p (d/10a)	1.99	2.95	2.22	1.98
TX90p (d/10a)	0.61	1.71	1.56	1.01
SU25 (d/10a)	3.18	2.93	2.66	1.60
TR20 (d/10a)	3.01	1.05	1.56	2.58
WSDI (d/10a)	0.41	-1.60	1.48	1.23
PRCPTOT (mm/10a)	-3.89	23.74	-9.47	-7.20
SDII(mm/d/10a)	0.11	—	0.02	0.20
R10(d/10a)	-0.07	—	-0.26	-0.40
R20 (d/10a)	-0.07	—	-0.11	0.05
RX1day(mm/10a)	0.74	0.33	-0.75	1.10
RX5day(mm/10a)	0.80	1.02	-1.90	0.80

1960~2014年淮河流域极端气温和降水时空变化特征

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Huaihe River Basin, China in 1960-2014

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极值分类	冷极值		暖极值		降水极值
指数	FD0		ID0		TN10p	TX10p	TN90p	TX90p	SU25	TR20	SDII	R10	R20	RX1day	RX5day
相关系数	0.365		-0.163		0.267	0.155	-0.207	-0.046	-0.063	-0.375	0.04	0.13	0.02	0.18	0.15

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