地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (12): 1909-1916.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.12.015
张秋良1(), 边玉明1, 代海燕2, 王冰1, 冯丽红3, 王美媛1
收稿日期:
2016-12-14
修回日期:
2017-03-10
出版日期:
2017-12-20
发布日期:
2017-12-20
作者简介:
作者简介:张秋良(1960-),男,内蒙古呼和浩特人,教授,博导,主要从事森林资源经营管理与森林生态方向。E-mail:
基金资助:
Qiuliang Zhang1(), Yuming Bian1, Haiyan Dai2, Bing Wang1, Lihong Feng3, Meiyuan Wang1
Received:
2016-12-14
Revised:
2017-03-10
Online:
2017-12-20
Published:
2017-12-20
Supported by:
摘要:
利用内蒙古大兴安岭林区11个气象站1971~2014年日平均气温数据,采用线性趋势、Morlet小波分析、克里金插值法对内蒙古大兴安岭林区极端气温的年变化进行分析。研究表明:极端高温天气和生物生长季天数在20世纪80年代中期以后呈显著增多趋势,极端低温天气呈显著减少趋势;在空间分布上,所有站点极端高温天气和生物生长季天数呈上升趋势,极端低温天气呈下降趋势,但空间差异明显。极端低温天气主要受27、18、11、7 a时间尺度周期影响。极端高温天气28 a左右周期振荡最为强烈,视为第一主周期,对极端高温天气影响最为显著,在2018年以后的大约8 a间(2019~2026年)极端高温天气可能会更加频繁。生物生长季受28 a时间尺度周期影响,且在2015~2022年生物生长季天数增长处于偏大期。
中图分类号:
张秋良, 边玉明, 代海燕, 王冰, 冯丽红, 王美媛. 内蒙古大兴安岭林区极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(12): 1909-1916.
Qiuliang Zhang, Yuming Bian, Haiyan Dai, Bing Wang, Lihong Feng, Meiyuan Wang. Variation of Extreme Temperature Events in Daxing’anling Forest Region of Inner Mongolia[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(12): 1909-1916.
[1] | Houghton J T,Ding Y,Griggs J et al.Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis[M].New York: Cambridge University Press,2001: 1-881. |
[2] | IPCC.Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. contribution of working group 1 to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013: 4-6. |
[3] | 杨方兴. 内蒙古地区极端气候事件时空变化及其与NDVI的相关性[D].西安:长安大学,2012. |
[Yang Fangxing.Trends of extreme daily precipitation and temperature and the correlation with NDVI in Inner Mongolia. Xi’an: Chang’an University,2012.] | |
[4] | 李尚锋,廉毅,陈圣波,等.东北初夏极端低温事件的空间分布特征及其成因机理分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(6): 752-758. |
[Li Shangfeng,Lian Yi,Cheng Shengbo et al.Distribution of extreme cool events over Northeast China in Early summer and the related dynamical Processes. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(6): 752-758.] | |
[5] | Frich P L,V Alexander,P Della-Marta et al.Observed coherent change extremes during the second half of the 20th Century[J].Clim.Res,2002,19(3):193-212. |
[6] | 张宁,孙照渤,曾刚.1955~2005 年中国极端气温的变化[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,31(1):123-128. |
[Zhang Ning, Sun Zhaobo, Zeng Gang.Change of extreme temperatures in China during 1955-2005. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2008, 31(1):123-128.] | |
[7] |
张延伟,葛全胜,姜逢清,等.北疆地区196~2010年极端气温事件变化特征[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):296-302.
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017 |
[Zhang Yanwei, Ge Quansheng, Jiang Fengqing et al.Evolution characteristics of the extreme high and low temperature event in North Xinjiang in 1961-2010. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016,36(2):296-302.]
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017 |
|
[8] | 任朝霞,杨达源.近 40 a 西北干旱区极端气候变化趋势研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,21(4):10-13. |
[Ren Zhaoxia,Yang Dayuan.Study on trends of extreme climate change in the arid region of northwest China in resent 40 years.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2007,21(4): 10-13.] | |
[9] |
李双双,杨赛霓. 1960~2014 年北京极端气温事件变化特征[J].地理科学, 2016, 36(12): 1640-1647.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.06.009 |
[Li Shuangshuang, Yang Saini.Changes of Extreme Temperature Events in Beijing During 1960-2014. Scientia Geographica Sinica. 2016,36(12):1640-1647.]
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.06.009 |
|
[10] | 姜晓艳,刘树华,马明敏,等.东北地区近百年降水时间序列变化规律的小波分析[J]. 地理研究,2009,28(2):354-362. |
[Jiang Xiaoyan,Liu Shuhua,Ma Mingmin et al.A wavelet analysis of the precipitation time series in Northeast China during the last 100 years.Geographical Research,2009, 28(2): 354-362.] | |
[11] |
白美兰,郝润全,李喜仓,等. 1961~2010 年内蒙古地区极端气候事件变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(2): 189-193.
doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2014)-02-0189 |
[Bai Meilan, Hao Runquan, Li Xicang et al. Variable characteristics of extreme climate events during 1961-2010 in Inner Mongolia. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2014, 32(2): 189-193.]
doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2014)-02-0189 |
|
[12] |
卢洪健,莫兴国,孟德娟,等.气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.1999.03.007 |
[Lu Hongjian, Mo Xingguo, Meng Dejuan et al. Analyzing spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological drought and its respons-es to climate change across Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(8): 1051-1059.]
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.1999.03.007 |
|
[13] | 杨淑萍,赵光平,穆建华,等.宁夏极端气候事件及其影响分析[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(6): 1169-1173. |
[Yang Shuping,Zhao Guangping,Mu Jianhua et al.Extreme climatic events and its effect in Ningxia.Journal of Desert Research,2008,28(6): 1169-1173.] | |
[14] |
张秀伟,赵景波.1956~2012年太原市极端气温变化研究[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(1):77-87.
doi: 10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0111 |
[Zhang Xiuwei,Zhao Jingbo.Extreme temperature change in Taiyuan City during 1956-2012.Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(1) :77-87.]
doi: 10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0111 |
|
[15] |
贾文雄. 近 50 年来祁连山及河西走廊极端气温的季节变化特征[J].地理科学,2012,32(11): 1377-1383.
doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z |
[Jia Wenxiong.Trends of extreme daily precipitation and temperature and the correlation with NDVI in Inner Mongolia Seasonal Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Changes in Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor During Last Fifty Years. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(11): 1377-1383. ]
doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z |
|
[16] |
杨志刚,杜军,林志强.1961~2012 年西藏色林错流域极端气温事件变化趋势[J].生态学报,2015,35(3):613-621.
doi: 10.5846/stxb201304180737 |
[Yang Zhigang,Du Jun,Lin Zhiqiang.Extreme air temperature changes in Selin Co basin,Tibet (1961-2012).Acta Ecological Sinica,2015,35(3):613-621.]
doi: 10.5846/stxb201304180737 |
|
[17] | 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2 版)[M].北京:气象出版社, 2007:37-44. |
[Wei Fengying.Modern climatic statistical diagnosis and prediction (Second edition). Beijing: China Meteorological Press,2007:37-44.] | |
[18] |
胡永宁,王林和,张国盛,等.毛乌素沙地1969~2009年主要气候因子时间序列小波分析[J]. 中国沙漠,2013,33(2):390-395.
doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00054 |
[Hu Yongning,Wang Linhe,Zhang Guosheng et al.Wavelet analysis on the temporal series of principal climate factors in Mu Us Sandy Land during 1969-2009.Journal of Desert Research,2013, 33(2):390-395.]
doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00054 |
|
[19] | 马柱国,符淙斌,任小波.中国北方极端温度的变化趋势与区域增暖的联系[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊): 11-20. |
[Ma Zhuguo,Fu Zongbin,Ren Xiaobo.Trend of annual extreme temperature and its relationship to regional warming in Northern China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58( S) :11-20.] | |
[20] | 郭灵辉, 吴绍洪, 赵东升, 等. 近 50 年内蒙古地区生长季变化趋势[J]. 地理科学,2013,33(4): 505-512. |
[Guo Linghui, Wu Shaohong, Zhao Dongsheng et al. Change trends of growing season over Inner Mongolia in the past 50 years. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013, 33(4): 505-512. ] | |
[21] | 赵凤君. 气候变化对内蒙古大兴安岭林区森林火灾的影响[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院, 2007. |
[Zhao Fengjun.Study on the impacts of change of forest fires in Inner Mongolia Daxing’ anling forest region.Beijing: Chinese Academy of forestry,2007.] | |
[22] | 严晓瑜,赵春雨,王颖,等.近 50 年东北地区极端温度变化趋势[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(1):81-87. |
[Yan Xiaoyu,Zhao Chunyu,Wang Ying et al.Change trend of extreme temperature in Northeast China for the past 50 years.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(1) :81-87.] | |
[23] | 周晓宇,赵春雨,张新宜,等.1961~2009 年辽宁省气温、降水变化特征及突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(10): 87-93. |
[Zhou Xiaoyu,Zhao Chunyu,Zhang Xinyi et al.Climate change characteristics and abrupt change analysis for Liaoning Province,1961-2009. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(10):87-93.] | |
[24] |
Katzr W,Brown B G.Extreme events in a changing climate:variability is more important than averages[J].Climatic Change,1992,21(3):289-302.
doi: 10.1007/BF00139728 |
[1] | 丁之勇, 董义阳, 鲁瑞洁. 1960~2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(8): 1379-1390. |
[2] | 高文兰, 李双双, 段克勤, 孔锋, 王娟. 基于均一化资料的西安极端气温变化特征研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(3): 464-473. |
[3] | 高文华, 李开封, 崔豫. 1960~2014年河南极端气温事件时空演变分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(8): 1259-1269. |
[4] | 王怀军, 潘莹萍, 陈忠升. 1960~2014年淮河流域极端气温和降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(12): 1900-1908. |
[5] | 李多, 柳艳菊, 王遵娅. 华南前汛期起讫日期的年际变化及与前汛期降水的关系[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(1): 154-160. |
[6] | 黄小燕, 王小平, 王劲松, 冯建英, 王圣杰. 1960~2013年中国沿海极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 612-620. |
[7] | 刘实, 隋波, 李辑, 涂钢. 东亚冬季风对中国东北冬季气温变化的影响[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(4): 507-514. |
[8] | 李双双, 杨赛霓. 1960~2014年北京极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(12): 1640-1647. |
[9] | 王冀, 申红艳, 张英娟, 王振宇. 青海地区冬季气温年际变化及其成因分析[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(1): 99-106. |
[10] | 贾文雄, 张禹舜, 李宗省. 近50 年来祁连山及河西走廊地区极端降水的时空变化研究[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(8): 1002-1009. |
[11] | 赵兴云, 王建, 商志远, 钱君龙. 树轮δ13C值方位分布及年际变化的普遍性研究 ——以中国东部亚热带地区为例[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(2): 193-198. |
[12] | 贾文雄. 近50年来祁连山及河西走廊极端气温的季节变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(11): 1377-1383. |
[13] | 张立伟, 宋春英, 延军平. 秦岭南北年极端气温的时空变化趋势研究[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(8): 1007-1011. |
[14] | 郑祚芳. 北京极端气温变化特征及其对城市化的响应[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(4): 459-463. |
[15] | 孙桂丽, 陈亚宁, 李卫红. 新疆极端水文事件年际变化及对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(11): 1389-1395. |
|