经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.01.008

地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 67-77.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.01.008

经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

李航飞^1,²(), 韦素琼¹(), 陈松林¹, 魏少彬¹, 赵家亮¹

1.福建师范大学地理研究所,福建福州 350007
2.韶关学院旅游与地理学院,广东韶关512005

收稿日期:2017-05-03 修回日期:2017-08-12 出版日期:2018-01-10 发布日期:2018-01-10
作者简介:
作者简介：李航飞(1980-),男,湖南新宁人,博士研究生,副教授,主要从事经济地理方面的研究。E-mail:lihangfei1980@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41771136);福建省公益类优先领域重点项目(2018R1101006-2);广东省高校优秀青年创新人才培养计划项目(2013WYM0075);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD17CGL13)资助

New Southward Policy’of Taiwan, China Under the View of Trade:Based on the Ways of SNA and VAR

Hangfei Li^1,²(), Suqiong Wei¹(), Songlin Chen¹, Shaobin Wei¹, Jialiang Zhao¹

1.Institute of Geographical Research, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian,China
2.College of tourism and geography, Shaoguan University, Shaoguan 512005, Guangdong,China

Received:2017-05-03 Revised:2017-08-12 Online:2018-01-10 Published:2018-01-10
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771136);The Key Project in Prior Field of Fujian Public Welfare Project (2018R1101006-2);Outstanding Youth Innovative Talent Training Program of Colleges and Universities in Guangdong Province (2013WYM0075);Planning Project of Philosophy and Social Science in Guangdong Province (GD17CGL13)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国台湾“新南向政策”倍受社会关注。基于经贸视角及2001~2015年贸易数据,在分析经济依赖度及国际竞争力基础上,通过社会网络分析（SNA）方法探讨中国大陆在贸易网络中的地位及其对中国台湾的影响,利用VAR脉冲响应函数对比分析中国台湾与中国大陆、新南向国家的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的影响。研究结果表明：新南向国家对中国大陆的经济依赖度远高于其对中国台湾的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是中国台湾难以替代的;中国台湾对中国大陆的经济依赖度明显高于其对新南向国家的经济依赖度,中国大陆对其的贸易地位是新南向国家难以替代的;中国大陆在贸易网络格局中处于核心地位,对于提升中国台湾贸易网络地位起着重要促进作用;中国大陆与中国台湾的对外贸易对中国台湾经济发展的正向效应明显高于新南向国家。中国台湾当局应秉承“九二共识”,抓住机遇,积极推进“新南向政策”与“一带一路”倡议融合,加强同中国大陆的经贸合作与交流,促进其经济稳定持续发展。

关键词: 贸易格局, “新南向政策”, 社会网络分析, VAR脉冲响应, 中国大陆, 中国台湾

Abstract:

‘New Southward Policy’of Taiwan,China has been concerned widely since it was put out. Based on the perspective of foreign trade and the trade data from 2001 to 2015, after the analysis of economic dependence and international competitiveness, the paper analyzed the status of Mainland China in the trade network and its impact on Taiwan ,China through social network analysis, and discussed the influences on the economy of Taiwan, China according to the foreign trade date between ‘New Southward’ countries, Mainland China and Taiwan,China through the VAR impulse response function. The results show that: For the ‘New Southward’ nations, the degree of its economic dependence on Mainland China is much higher than that of Taiwan,China, and the trade status of Mainland China is far higher than that of Taiwan,China; for Taiwan,China, the degree of its economic dependence on Mainland China is significantly higher than that of the ‘New Southward’ countries, and the trade status of Mainland China is significantly higher than that of the ‘New Southward’ nations; for the ‘New Southward’ countries, the foreign trade status of Mainland China is irreplaceable by Taiwan,China. Meanwhile, for Taiwan,China, the foreign trade status of Mainland China is irreplaceable by the ‘New Southward’ nations; Mainland China is the central of the trade network pattern, which plays an important role in promoting Taiwan,China status in the trade network; the positive effect of foreign trade between Mainland China and Taiwan,China on the economic development of Taiwan,China is significantly higher than that of the ‘New Southward’ countries. In order to boost economy, the Taiwan authority should adhere to the‘1992 Consensus’, and vigorously promote the integration of‘New Southward policy’and ‘The Belt and Road Initiatives’, strengthen the economic and trade cooperation and exchanges with Mainland China.

Key words: trade pattern, ‘New Southward policy’, social network analysis(SNA), VAR impulse response, Mainland China, Taiwan China

中图分类号:

F127

李航飞, 韦素琼, 陈松林, 魏少彬, 赵家亮. 经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(1): 67-77.

Hangfei Li, Suqiong Wei, Songlin Chen, Shaobin Wei, Jialiang Zhao. New Southward Policy’of Taiwan, China Under the View of Trade:Based on the Ways of SNA and VAR[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(1): 67-77.

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经贸视角下中国台湾“新南向政策”分析——基于SNA和VAR方法

New Southward Policy’of Taiwan, China Under the View of Trade:Based on the Ways of SNA and VAR

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