东北地区人口结构与经济发展耦合关系研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.01.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以东北地区34个地级市为研究对象,利用灰色关联模型和耦合度模型,对东北地区人口结构与经济发展的耦合关系进行分析,结果表明：① 人口结构与经济发展整体处于中高等关联水平,人口文化素质和城市化水平对东北地区经济发展的驱动作用明显;② 自2000年以来,东北地区人口结构与经济发展耦合关系整体经历了波动上升、平稳下降、缓慢上升的过程;③ 人口结构与经济发展相互影响、相互制约,在经济发展的不同阶段,经济发展与人口结构均处于协调发展状态,但是协调水平高低不同;④ 各省人口结构与经济发展耦合度变化差异较大,辽宁省两系统的耦合度呈现出与整个东北地区大致相同的变化趋势。

关键词: 人口结构, 经济发展, 关联度, 耦合关系, 东北地区

Abstract:

As the important old industrial base in China, the Northeast China facing the pressure of economic downturn and seriously population problem. Researching the coupling relationship between population structure and economic development is significant for making the population and economic policy. This article measured the correlation degree and coupling degree of Northeast China, and then analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution and exploring the relationship characteristics of the two systems by using the grey relationship analysis. The results show that: 1) The population structure and economic development in the upper elementary level. The population cultural quality and urbanization drive the economic development obviously in Northeast China; 2) During the fifteen years, the population structure and economic development experienced the fluctuant rising -fallen fairly-rising slowly. 3) Population structure and economic development affect and interact each other, and the two systems in the stage of coordinate in various economic development phases. The rationalization of the population structure will be higher when the economy developed well, at the meanwhile, the rational population structure will drive the economic development, which makes the two systems at the coordinate condition. And if not, population structure and economic development will in the state of lower coordination. 4) The coupling relation of population structure and economic development in Liaoning Province is the mainly cause of the Northeast China.

Key words: population structure, economic development, relational degree, coupling relationship, Northeast China

中图分类号:

F127

于婷婷, 宋玉祥, 阿荣, 浩飞龙, 朱邦耀. 东北地区人口结构与经济发展耦合关系研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(1): 114-121.

Tingting Yu, Yuxiang Song, Rong A, Feilong Hao, Bangyao Zhu. The Coupling Relationship Between Population Structure and Economic Development in Northeast China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(1): 114-121.

图/表 5

表1

表2

东北地区人口结构与经济发展关联度矩阵"

	X1	X2	X3	X4	X5	X6	X7	A_j	结构平均
Y1	0.715	0.595	0.632	0.847	0.463	0.650	0.782	0.669	0.638
Y2	0.496	0.574	0.635	0.841	0.453	0.660	0.768	0.632	0.638 0.638 0.638
Y3	0.497	0.576	0.637	0.837	0.452	0.665	0.768	0.633
Y4	0.489	0.558	0.620	0.841	0.433	0.642	0.751	0.619
Y5	0.499	0.693	0.647	0.560	0.629	0.652	0.614	0.613	0.623
Y6	0.467	0.608	0.691	0.715	0.457	0.746	0.745	0.633	0.623
Y7	0.475	0.604	0.619	0.697	0.492	0.669	0.680	0.605	0.615
Y8	0.481	0.702	0.700	0.608	0.576	0.650	0.659	0.625	0.615
Y9	0.481	0.604	0.654	0.774	0.455	0.685	0.762	0.631	0.632
Y10	0.483	0.718	0.719	0.576	0.616	0.603	0.616	0.619	0.632 0.632 0.632
Y11	0.491	0.680	0.711	0.688	0.556	0.653	0.741	0.646
$A i$	0.507	0.628	0.660	0.726	0.508	0.661	0.717	0.627
结构平均	0.507	0.628	0.660	0.726	0.629

表2

图1

图2

图3

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	指标类型	指标
人口结构	年龄结构	18~60岁人口占总人口比重（X1）
	性别结构	性别比（X2）
	城乡结构	城镇人口占比（X3）
	文化结构	中专及以上人口占总人口比重（X4）
	产业结构	第一产业从业人员占总就业人口比重（X5）、第二产业从业人员占总就业人口比重（X6）、第三产业从业人口占总就业人口比重（X7）
经济发展	基础经济指标	国内生产总值（Y1）、地方财政收入（Y2）、固定资产投资总额（Y3）、社会消费品零售总额（Y4）
	经济速度	GDP增长率（Y5）、地方财政收入增长率（Y6）
	经济结构	工业产业增加值比重（Y7）、第三产业产值比重（Y8）
	经济发展和收入水平	人均国内生产总值（Y9）、农民人均纯收入（Y10）、城镇居民人均可支配收入（Y11）