地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 177-185.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.003

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海洋产业影响省域经济增长估计及其分异动因判识

马仁锋1,2(), 候勃1, 张文忠2, 袁海红1, 窦思敏1   

  1. 1.宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系, 浙江 宁波315211
    2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟院重点实验室, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-08 修回日期:2017-09-02 出版日期:2018-04-10 发布日期:2018-04-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:马仁锋(1979-),男,湖北枣阳人,博士,副教授,主要从事经济地理、区域规划与城市研究。E-mail: marfxf@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY17D010002)、宁波大学研究生科研创新基金项目(G17098)资助

Estimates of Marine Industry Impact on Provincial Economic Growth and Its Identification of Differentiation Dynamics in 2006-2015

Renfeng Ma1,2(), Bo Hou1, Wenzhong Zhang2, Haihong Yuan1, Simin Dou1   

  1. 1. Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2017-05-08 Revised:2017-09-02 Online:2018-04-10 Published:2018-04-10
  • Supported by:
    Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation ( LY17D010002), Graduate Research Innovation Foundation of Ningbo University (G17098)

摘要:

采用静态和动态计量方法分析2006~2015年海洋经济对沿海省(市、区)经济发展的影响程度并通过空间计量方法识别差异动因。研究发现:海洋经济对中国省域经济发展具有显著地影响,其中天津、上海、福建、山东、广东、海南海洋经济总量贡献率高于全国平均水平;省域海洋产业对区域经济影响度分异呈现省际绝对差异不断扩大、相对差异不断缩小,且具有显著的空间相关性;引起省域经济增长差异的海洋经济相关因素中,海洋第二产业、海洋进出口贸易额等起到正向促进作用(即拉大差异),且海洋第二产业结构具有显著的溢出效应。相关发现有助于中国沿海省(市、区)经济的协调发展和科学决策。

关键词: 海洋产业, 省域经济, 空间相关性, 增长动因, 空间计量经济模型

Abstract:

By analyzing the economic impact of marine industry on coastal provinces, the arcitle examines the spatial correlation of per capita GDP, establishes a spatial econometric model, and then analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation of the marine industry and the causes of the regional economic growth (2006-2015). Choosing the coastal provinces (cities) as the research unit. This study found that: 1) Comprehensive portrayal of the contribution rate of the marine economy to the provincial economy and the static and dynamic measurement results of marine economy promoting regional economic growth. We found that the marine economy in coastal provinces (cities) has a significant impact on provincial economic growth, and the degree of promotion is different. In addition, the contribution rate of marine economy to provincial economy in Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan is higher than the national average rate. Further, the differences in the influence degree of the marine industry on the regional economy shows that the absolute difference between the provinces is expanding and the relative difference is shrinking, and there is significant spatial correlation. 2) The related factors of the Marine economy may give rise to the difference of provincial economic growth, we have found that the second marine industry, marine import and export trade volume both play a positive role in promoting regional economy. While the first and tertiary industries of marine economy have a hindrance to the differences in provincial economic growth. And the secondary industry of marine economy has obvious positive spillover effect on the surrounding areas, while the estimated parameters of the employment situation, the fiscal revenue and the education basic situation in the coastal areas are not significant in the spatial measurement model. 3) The results of the four spatial econometric models show that most of the explanatory variables pass the significance testing and they are in line with the actual situation. Durbin space error model estimation results overall is superior to the other models, the error of spatial Durbin model identify the Marine economy factors influencing the regional economic growth differences includes not only the neighboring regions of the economy themselves, but also the surrounding provinces of the relevant explanatory variables. Basing on the analysis of the economic growth difference and the contribution rate of the marine economy in the coastal provinces, the article draws the focus of narrowing the development gap of marine industry in the coastal provinces and cities to promote the coordinated development of China's coastal zone. That is, to cultivate the marine economic potential of provincial economic growth. Related findings are helpful for understanding the balanced development and making scientific decision-making of Marine economy in coastal cities and provinces in China.

Key words: marine industry, provincial economy, spatial correlation, growth motivation, spatial econometric model

中图分类号: 

  • F062.9