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### 中国省域消费水平及影响因素的时空异质性分析

1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023
• 收稿日期:2017-02-17 修回日期:2017-07-02 出版日期:2018-04-10 发布日期:2018-04-10
• 作者简介:

作者简介：刘帅宾（1988-）,男,河南汝州人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城乡发展与区域规划。 E-mail: liushuaibin312@163.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41471135,41671140,41771171）资助

### Spatial-temporal Evolution of China’s Provincial Consumption and Its Influencing Factors

Shuaibin Liu(), Zaijun Li(), Nianxing Zhou, Shan Yang

1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
• Received:2017-02-17 Revised:2017-07-02 Online:2018-04-10 Published:2018-04-10
• Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471135,41671140,41771171)

Abstract:

Consumption is an important part of market economy. It is not only an important driving force for economic growth, but also can reflect the rationality of activities of economic production distribution and contribute to evaluating the effect of policy of regional balance development. With China's foreign trade faces increasing challenge, domestic demand has become an important driving force for economic growth. This paper analyzes the evolution of consumption level space at the provincial scale from 1978 to 2015 in China by using empirical orthogonal model (EOF). In order to effectively diagnose the impact degree of influencing factors on regional consumption level under the condition of spatial heterogeneity, this article also constructs the panel quantile regression model to explain the difference of provincial consumption level. The results showed that: 1) Consumption level space presents significantly clustered trend in east-west and south-north, especially in east-west. However, this phenomenon is not permanent; it will vary or be conversed with time. During this process, the policy of consumption and regional development play an important role. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the policy that government encouraging eastern coastal areas in China take the lead in development, make the pattern of China’s consumption level changed around 1994. After world financial crisis in 2008, the government’s policy of expanding domestic demand has promoted the further differentiation of the consumption level pattern. 2) The result of panel quintile regression reveals the complexity mechanisms of consumption, not only the effects of different influencing factors are different, but also the effect of same influencing factor is different in different regions and period. The effects of influencing factor are different in different regions of consumption level and different period. The developments of second and third industries are the main influencing factors of regional consumption level, especially for the low consumption areas after 1994. The effect of traffic convenience on consumption is improving. The total volume of import and export has significantly positive effect on consumption in two periods, its effect is better in high level of consumption in recently. Although the ratio of employees to total population has only significantly positive effect on the high level of consumption, the influence degree is improving. Urbanization has significantly positive effect on consumption, but the trend of influence degree vary as “U” type with the level of regional consumption levels. 3) For the high level of consumption area, the measures should be aimed to improve the quality of industrial development, the quality of employment and international circulation of commodities. For low level of consumption area, the measures should be aimed to expand the industrial scale, transportation network, employment scale. At last, governments should strength integration of urban and rural, release the consumption potential of rural migrants, especially for the middle level consumption areas.

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