地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 186-194.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.004

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中国省域消费水平及影响因素的时空异质性分析

刘帅宾(), 李在军(), 周年兴, 杨山   

  1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏 南京 210023
  • 收稿日期:2017-02-17 修回日期:2017-07-02 出版日期:2018-04-10 发布日期:2018-04-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘帅宾(1988-),男,河南汝州人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为城乡发展与区域规划。 E-mail: liushuaibin312@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41471135,41671140,41771171)资助

Spatial-temporal Evolution of China’s Provincial Consumption and Its Influencing Factors

Shuaibin Liu(), Zaijun Li(), Nianxing Zhou, Shan Yang   

  1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2017-02-17 Revised:2017-07-02 Online:2018-04-10 Published:2018-04-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471135,41671140,41771171)

摘要:

针对1978~2015年间中国省域消费水平及影响因素的时空异质性分析表明:消费水平格局呈明显的东西与南北集聚态势,并以东西格局为主;时序上,消费水平格局不断发生分化或翻转。消费水平的影响因素不仅相互之间存在差异,而且相同影响因素也存在时空异质性,表现对不同时段和不同等级消费地区的作用程度并不一致。不同等级消费地区应实施相宜的产业、就业政策,不断完善低消费地区物流网络、提升高消费地区商品国内外流通程度,促进中等消费地区农村转移人口的消费潜力持续释放。

关键词: 消费水平, 影响因素, 时空异质性, 中国

Abstract:

Consumption is an important part of market economy. It is not only an important driving force for economic growth, but also can reflect the rationality of activities of economic production distribution and contribute to evaluating the effect of policy of regional balance development. With China's foreign trade faces increasing challenge, domestic demand has become an important driving force for economic growth. This paper analyzes the evolution of consumption level space at the provincial scale from 1978 to 2015 in China by using empirical orthogonal model (EOF). In order to effectively diagnose the impact degree of influencing factors on regional consumption level under the condition of spatial heterogeneity, this article also constructs the panel quantile regression model to explain the difference of provincial consumption level. The results showed that: 1) Consumption level space presents significantly clustered trend in east-west and south-north, especially in east-west. However, this phenomenon is not permanent; it will vary or be conversed with time. During this process, the policy of consumption and regional development play an important role. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, the policy that government encouraging eastern coastal areas in China take the lead in development, make the pattern of China’s consumption level changed around 1994. After world financial crisis in 2008, the government’s policy of expanding domestic demand has promoted the further differentiation of the consumption level pattern. 2) The result of panel quintile regression reveals the complexity mechanisms of consumption, not only the effects of different influencing factors are different, but also the effect of same influencing factor is different in different regions and period. The effects of influencing factor are different in different regions of consumption level and different period. The developments of second and third industries are the main influencing factors of regional consumption level, especially for the low consumption areas after 1994. The effect of traffic convenience on consumption is improving. The total volume of import and export has significantly positive effect on consumption in two periods, its effect is better in high level of consumption in recently. Although the ratio of employees to total population has only significantly positive effect on the high level of consumption, the influence degree is improving. Urbanization has significantly positive effect on consumption, but the trend of influence degree vary as “U” type with the level of regional consumption levels. 3) For the high level of consumption area, the measures should be aimed to improve the quality of industrial development, the quality of employment and international circulation of commodities. For low level of consumption area, the measures should be aimed to expand the industrial scale, transportation network, employment scale. At last, governments should strength integration of urban and rural, release the consumption potential of rural migrants, especially for the middle level consumption areas.

Key words: provincial level of consumption, influencing factors, space-time evolution, China

中图分类号: 

  • K902