中国科技创新与可持续发展耦合协调及时空分异研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在探讨科技创新与可持续发展相互作用机理的基础上,以中国1995~2014年科技创新与可持续发展的相关数据为依据,运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型和探索性空间数据分析方法,分析科技创新与可持续发展的耦合协调度和时空分异特征。结果表明：① 科技创新和可持续发展的综合发展指数表现出明显正相关关系,在整体发展和分段演化中均表现出较高一致性,耦合协调度呈稳步上升态势,且已进入高度耦合协调阶段。② 科技创新与可持续发展耦合协调度在空间上呈现弱正相关关系,空间集聚程度不显著,且随时间推移空间集聚现象并没有得到增强。③ 从时空演变格局来看,局部空间自相关规律性明显,虽然不同集聚区在时空演变中都表现出一定的扩张和收缩,但在总体空间格局上呈现“东高西低”的发展态势,且东西部的差距在逐渐缩小。

关键词: 科技创新, 可持续发展, 耦合协调度, 探索性空间数据分析

Abstract:

'There would be no sustainable development without science', which has been proposed by UNESCO at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The relationship between scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development has become an important part of sustainable development theory. Both of them have natural interaction and mutual relations, restricting and promoting each other. Sustainable development goals can be achieved through scientific and technological innovations, and scientific and technological innovations maintain positive interaction with society for recognition and support by the concept of sustainable development. Based on Chinese relevant data about scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development from 1995 to 2014, this paper analyzes the interaction mechanism of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development. Using entropy method, coupling coordination degree model and exploratory data analysis method, this paper analyzes the coupling degree and spatio-temporal differentiation of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development, and comes to the following conclusion. At first, scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development shows a positive correlation and a high consistency in both sectional evolution and overall development, and the coupling coordination degree tends to rise to a stage of highly coupling and coordinating steadily. Secondly, the coupling degree of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development shows a weak positive correlation in space, the degree of spatial agglomeration is not significant, and the spatial clustering distribution has not enhanced with time. Finally, from the perspective of spatial and temporal evolution, the local spatial autocorrelation regularity is obvious. The regional scale of HH gradually spreads, and mainly concentrates in the eastern coastal areas; LH area, which concentrates in the central and western regions, is the most extensive, and shows the situation from the scattered to the contiguous; LL regional range changes significantly with the overall shrinking trend, and the spatial distribution transits from midwest to northwest region; HL area is relatively less stable, and the scope tends to focus on the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Although the different agglomeration areas show expansion and contraction in the evolution of time and space, the general spatial pattern is high in east and low in west, and the gap between east and west is gradually narrowing. Accordingly, HH area should continue to maintain good momentum of development, and play a leading role in technology diffusion and radiation. Meanwhile, LL area should be further developed due to the policy support of the country to increase R&D investment and to focus on the introduction of technology digestion and absorption, and this area should learn advanced experience actively and dock industry shift from eastern coastal areas. With scientific and technological innovation, this area will change the development way to achieve the corner overtaking. HL and LH areas should strengthen cross-regional cooperation and enhance hard and soft power to promote coordinated development of scientific and technological innovation and sustainable development.

Key words: scientific and technological innovation, sustainable development, coupling coordination degree, explore spatial data analysis

中图分类号:

G311

赵传松, 任建兰, 陈延斌, 刘凯. 中国科技创新与可持续发展耦合协调及时空分异研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(2): 214-222.

Chuansong Zhao, Jianlan Ren, Yanbin Chen, Kai Liu. Coupling Coordination and Spatio-temporal Differentiation of Scientific and Technological Innovation and Sustainable Development in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(2): 214-222.

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系统层	子系统层	指标层（单位）	信息熵	冗余度	权重
科技创新水平测度	科技创新投入	人均R&D支出（元）	0.7989	0.2011	0.3404
	科技创新中间产出	万人国内专利申请受理量（项）	0.8053	0.1947	0.3295
	科技创新最终产出	人均技术市场成交额（元）	0.8049	0.1951	0.3302

系统层	子系统层	指标层（单位）	属性	信息熵	冗余度	权重
可持续发展水平测度	经济子系统	GDP（亿元）	+	0.8418	0.1582	0.0908
		人均GDP（万元）	+	0.8429	0.1571	0.0901
		三产比重（%）	+	0.9399	0.0601	0.0345
		人均地方财政收入（元）	+	0.8274	0.1726	0.0990
		人均固定资产投资（万元）	+	0.7901	0.2099	0.1204
	社会子系统	公路里程密度（km/100 km²）	+	0.8684	0.1316	0.0755
		城镇登记失业率（%）	-	0.8498	0.1502	0.0862
		城镇居民人均可支配收入（万元）	+	0.8573	0.1427	0.0819
		每千人拥有卫生人员数（人）	+	0.8885	0.1115	0.0639
		文盲人口占15岁及以上人口比重数（%）	-	0.9459	0.0541	0.0310
	生态环境子系统	人均公共绿地面积（m²/人）	+	0.8880	0.1120	0.0643
		森林覆盖率（%）	+	0.9137	0.0863	0.0495
		万元GDP化学需氧量排放量（t/万元）	-	0.9380	0.0620	0.0356
		万元GDP二氧化硫排放量（t /万元）	-	0.9467	0.0533	0.0306
		万元GDP工业固体废弃物排放量（t /万元）	-	0.9184	0.0816	0.0468

阶段	时期	科技创新水平				可持续发展水平
阶段	时期	初期值		末期值	年均递增	初期值	末期值	年均递增
第Ⅰ阶段	1995~2003	0.0055	0.1246	0.0119		0.1337	0.2547	0.0120
第Ⅱ阶段	2004~2014	0.1640	0.9977	0.0834		0.2963	0.9033	0.0607

年份	1995	2002	2008	2014
Moran’s I	0.1339	0.1028	0.1619	0.1392
P值	0.0244	0.0447	0.0090	0.0209
Z检验	2.2493	1.9688	2.6096	2.3091

年份	高高（HH）			低高（LH）		低低（LL）			高低（HL）
年份	个数		占比（%）		个数	占比（%）	个数	占比（%）	个数	占比（%）
1995	3	10		11	36.67	5	16.67		11	36.67
2002	3	10		12	40	10	33.33		5	16.67
2008	6	20		10	33.33	6	20		8	26.67
2014	6	20		10	33.33	4	13.33		10	33.33