高铁对县域经济增长溢出效应的影响研究——以福建省为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.009

地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 233-241.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.009

高铁对县域经济增长溢出效应的影响研究——以福建省为例

李新光^1,²(), 黄安民³

1. 湖北师范大学经济与管理学院, 湖北黄石 435002
2.武夷学院商学院, 福建武夷山 354300
3. 华侨大学城市建设与经济发展研究院, 福建泉州 362021

收稿日期:2017-02-14 修回日期:2017-06-20 出版日期:2018-04-10 发布日期:2018-04-10
作者简介:
作者简介：李新光（1980-）,男,湖南娄底人,副教授,博士,从事宏观经济模型及其应用、空间计量模型应用研究。E-mail:lixinguang001@163.com
基金资助:
福建省教育厅中青年教师教育科研项目（JAS150608）、福建省社会科学规划项目（FJ2015C241, FJ2015C243）资助

Spillovers Effect of the High-Speed Railway on Counties’Economic Growth:Taking Fujian Province as An Example

Xinguang L^1,²(), Anmin Huang³

1.School of Economics and Management, Hubei Normal University, Huangshi 435002, Hubei, China
2.School of Business,Wuyi University, Wuyishan 354300, Fujian,China
3. Academy of Urban Construction and Economy Development, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, Fujian,China

Received:2017-02-14 Revised:2017-06-20 Online:2018-04-10 Published:2018-04-10
Supported by:
Fujian Provincial Education Department of Young Teachers (JAS150608), Social Science Planning Project of Fujian Province (FJ2015C241,FJ2015C243)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

搜集福建省58个县级市的面板数据,采用两机制空间面板杜宾模型,同时考虑空间邻接和区域通达时间距离两种权重来检验高铁开通对地区经济增长溢出效应的影响。结果发现,福建县域经济增长存在明显的空间集聚性和正向空间溢出效应,通过高铁缩短城市间的通达时间比简单的相邻地区间经济增长的空间溢出效应更大;资本和劳动力的产出弹性系数均为正,并且前者小于后者,福建经济增长主要以劳动力带动为主;高铁开通前后地区经济增长溢出效应有显著差异,开通后的溢出效应小于开通前,这有利于地区经济向均衡方向发展。

关键词: 高速铁路, 经济增长, 空间溢出, 两机制空间面板杜宾模型

Abstract:

Based on theoretical and empirical perspectives, this article demonstrates the impact of high-speed rail construction on the economy growth spillovers of Fujian County. At first, it theoretically proves that high-speed rail construction will bring the direct and indirect effects of economic growth. Then, we collect 2001-2014 microscopic panel data of 58 county-level cities in Fujian Province. Firstly, using two mechanisms of spatial panel Durbin Model, taking into account two kinds of spatial weights matrix, the space adjacent weight matrix and area reaching time -distance weight matrix, to test the high-speed railway spillover effect on regional economic growth. It shows that: First, the economic growth of Fujian County has significant positive spatial correlation between 2001 and 2014. The economic growth of a county is not spatially random distributed. There is significant spatial dependence and the combined effect of Fujian County economy. That is to say, economic growth of one area will generate positive spillover effects on that of adjacent area. Economic growth spillovers which result from shorten time accessibility between different cities because of high-speed rail than that of spatial correlation results from simple adjacent areas. Second, compared with the results of the traditional panel model, the direct impact of the high-speed rail on the regional economic growth is also very significant before and after the opening of the high-speed rail, which is resulted from the significant change in the contribution of labor and capital to economic growth. That is to say, the output elasticity of labor has become smaller, the output elasticity of capital becomes larger. It indicates that the opening of high-speed rail brings convenience to flow of the labor and the capital, and contribution of capital on economic growth will be more and more important. Third, the output elasticity of capital and labor is positive, and the former is smaller than the latter. It means that economic growth in Fujian is mainly driven by labor-based, and contribution of the capital is not yet fully realized. Forth, the spillover effect of the economic growth spillover effect based on the accessibility distance is larger than that under the simple spatial adjacency weight. Regional economic growth spillover effects are significant different before and after opening of high-speed rail, and the spillover effect after the opening of high-speed rail is smaller than that of before. This is conducive to balance the regional economic development. Finally, the article summarizes the relevant conclusions and inspiration, and puts forward policy recommendations.

Key words: high-speed railway, economic growth, spatial spillover, two mechanisms of spatial panel Durbin Model

中图分类号:

F290

李新光, 黄安民. 高铁对县域经济增长溢出效应的影响研究——以福建省为例[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(2): 233-241.

Xinguang L, Anmin Huang. Spillovers Effect of the High-Speed Railway on Counties’Economic Growth:Taking Fujian Province as An Example[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(2): 233-241.

图/表 6

图 1

图 2

表 1

主要年份lnGDP和lnK、lnL的Moran’s I指数"

	$W 1$				$W 2$
年份	$lnGDP$		$lnK$	$ln L$	$ln GDP$	$ln K$	$ln L$
2001	0.512***	0.078	0.266***		0.200***	-0.002	0.122***
2004	0.504***	0.254***	0.408***		0.196***	0.071***	0.171***
2008	0.498***	0.29***	0.426***		0.197***	0.09***	0.173***
2010	0.500***	0.303***	0.418***		0.196***	0.095***	0.172***
2012	0.502***	0.333***	0.467***		0.198***	0.118***	0.178***
2014	0.499***	0.312***	0.525***		0.199***	0.116***	0.201***

表 1

表2

高铁对地区经济增长直接影响的估计结果"

	固定效应模型	随机效应模型
$lnK$	0.37870***	0.38435***
$lnL$	0.05756**	0.17102***
$dum_lnL$	-0.02695	-0.04809**
$dum_lnK$	0.04271***	0.05601***
常数项	7.70249***	6.49675***
样本数总计	812	812
组内R²	0.91520	0.91187
F/Wald(P值)	2.02e+03（0.0000）	6882.77（0.0000）

表2

表 3

单机制空间杜宾模型（时间个体）估计结果"

	模型1： $W 1$	模型2： $W 2$
$lnL$	0.599***	0.511***
$lnK$	0.375***	0.385***
$W * lnL$	-0.005	0.422***
$W * lnK$	-0.386***	-0.575***
$W * dep . var$	0.369***	0.684***
$R 2$	0.904	0.9084
$sigm a 2$	0.096	0.0902
$logL$	-5164.077	-186.4882
样本数总计	812	812
Wald检验（P值）	SDM和SAR：11200（0.001） SDM和SEM：56.768（0.000）^①^（ ① 检验是基于时间效应下的SDM模型,下同。^）	SDM和SAR：11.0738（0.001） SDM和SEM：8.787（0.012）

表 3

表 4

两机制空间杜宾模型估计结果"

	模型3： $W 1$	模型4： $W 2$
常数项	-0.019	-1.597**
$lnL$	0.603***	0.565***
$lnK$	0.561***	0.38***
$W*lnL$	-0.103**	-0.161**
$W*lnK$	-0.273***	-0.314***
$rho 1$	0.339***	0.625***
$rho 2$	0.345***	0.751***
$R 2$	0.8835	0.8988
$sigm a 2$	0.1146	0.0996
$logL$	-285.445	-225.222
总计	812	812
$rho 1 - rho 2$ (t值)	-0.0063(-0.7998)	-0.1252(-2.5690)

表 4

参考文献 40

[1]	张楠楠, 徐逸伦. 高速铁路对沿线区域发展的影响研究[J]. 地域研究与开发, 2005, 24(3): 32-36.
	[Zhang Nannan, Xu Yilun.Research on the impacts of high speed rail on regional development. Areal Research and Development,2005,24(3): 32-36.]
[2]	Kim Kwang Sik.High-speed rail developments and spatial restructuring:A case study of the capital region in South Korea[J]. November, Paris, France. 1. Cities, 2000, 17(4): 251-262. doi: 10.1016/S0264-2751(00)00021-4
[3]	Blum Ulrich, Haynes Kingsley e, Karlsson Charlie. Introduction to the special issue the regional and urban effects of high-speed trains[J]. The annals of regional science, 1997, 31(1): 1-20. doi: 10.1007/s001680050036
[4]	Sun Feiyang, Mansury Yuri S.Economic impact of high-speed rail on household income in China[J].Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2016(2581): 71-78. doi: 10.3141/2581-09
[5]	Ahlfeldt Gabriel M, Feddersen Arne.From periphery to core:Economic adjustments to high speed rail[J].Documents de treball IEB, 2010(38): 1.
[6]	VIckerman Roger.High-speed rail and regional development:The case of intermediate stations[J].Journal of Transport Geography, 2015(42)157-165. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.06.008
[7]	Nakagawa Dai, Hatoko Masatoshi.Reevaluation of Japanese high-speed rail construction: Recent situation of the north corridor Shinkansen and its way to completion[J]. Transport Policy, 2007, 14(2): 150-164. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2006.11.004
[8]	王垚, 年猛. 高速铁路带动了区域经济发展吗?[J]. 上海经济研究, 2014(2): 82-91.
	[Wang Yao, Nian Meng.Did hight-speed trains promote the development of regional economy?.Shanghai Economic Review,2014(2): 82-91.]
[9]	方大春, 孙明月.高速铁路对长三角城市群经济发展影响评估——基于DID 模型的实证研究[J]. 华东经济管理, 2016(2): 42-47. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2016.02.007
	[Fang Dachun, Sun Mingyue.An evalutaion on the impact of high-speed rail on economic development of city clusters in the Yangtze River Delta—An empirical study based on difference in difference model. East China Economic Management, 2016(2): 42-47.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5097.2016.02.007
[10]	Ortega Emilio,L Pez Elena, Monz N Andr S. Territorial cohesion impacts of high-speed rail at different planning levels[J].Journal of Transport Geography, 2012, 24:130-141. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.10.008
[11]	汪建丰, 李志刚. 沪杭高铁对沿线区域经济发展影响的实证分析[J]. 经济问题探索, 2014 (9): 74-77. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2912.2014.09.012
	[Wang Jianfeng, Li Zhigang.Empirical analysis on the influence of Shanghai-Hangzhou high speed rail on regional economic development.Inquiry into Economic Issues,2014(9): 74-77. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2912.2014.09.012
[12]	丁秋贤, 朱丽霞, 张辉,等.高速铁路对沿线城市可达性及经济联系的影响——以汉宜高速铁路为例[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015(6): 952-957.
	[Ding Qiuxian, Zhu Lixia,Zhang Hui et al. Impacet of hight-speed railway on accessibility and economic linkage of cities along the railway—A case study of hanyi High-speed railway. Journal of Central China Normal University, 2015(6): 952-957.]
[13]	钟业喜,黄洁,文玉钊. 高铁对中国城市可达性格局的影响分析[J]. 地理科学,2015,35(4):387-395.
	[Zhong Yexi, Huang Jie,Wen Yuzhao.Impact of high-speed railway on spatial pattern of Chinese cities’accessibility. Scientia Geogrpahica Sinica, 2015, 35(4): 387-395.]
[14]	王丽, 曹有挥, 仇方道. 高铁开通前后站区产业空间格局变动及驱动机制——以沪宁城际南京站为例[J]. 地理科学, 2017,37(1):19-27.
	[Wang Li, Cao Youhui, Qiu Fangdao.Spatial change and driving mechanism of industrial in regions of HSR station before and after the opening: A case study of Nanjing HSR station. Scientia Geogrpahica Sinica, 2017, 37(1): 27.]
[15]	于涛, 陈昭, 朱鹏宇. 高铁驱动中国城市郊区化的特征与机制研究—— 以京沪高铁为例[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(9):1041-1046.
	[Yu Tao,Chen Zhao,Zhu Pengyu.Characteristics and mechanism of High speed rail-driven suburbanization in China:A case study of Beijing-Shanghai High speed rail.Scientia Geogrpahica Sinica, 2012, 32(9):1041-1046. ]
[16]	沈惊宏, 陆玉麒, 兰小机. 基于分形理论的公路交通网络与区域经济发展关系的研究[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(6):658-665.
	[Sheng Jinghong,Lu Yuqi,Lan Xiaoji.Relationship between the road network and regional economic development based on fractal theory .Scientia Geogrpahica Sinica, 2012, 32(6):658-665.]
[17]	张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗——兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J]. 中国社会科学, 2012(3):60-77+206.
	[Zhang Xueliang. Has transport infrastructure promoted regional economic growth?With an analysis of the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure.Chinese Social Sciences, 2012(3): 60-77+206.]
[18]	胡鞍钢, 刘生龙.交通运输、经济增长及溢出效应——基于中国省际数据空间经济计量的结果[J]. 中国工业经济, 2009(5):5-14.
	[Hu An’gang, Liu Shenglong.Transporttation, economic growth and spillover:Conclusion based on spatial econometrics. China Industrial Economics, 2009(5): 5-14.]
[19]	潘文卿. 中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应[J]. 经济研究, 2012 (1): 54-65.
	[Pan Wenqing.Regional linkage and the spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth in China. Economic Research, 2012(1): 54-65.]
[20]	张志, 周浩. 交通基础设施的溢出效应及其产业差异——基于空间计量的比较分析[J]. 财经研究, 2012,(3): 124-134.
	[Zhang Zhi, Zhou Hao.The spillover effects of transportation infrastructure and industrial differences:Comparative analysis based on spatial econometrics. The Study of Finance and Economics,2012(3): 124-134.]
[21]	李忠民, 刘育红, 张强.“新丝绸之路”交通基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长——基于多维要素空间面板数据模型[J]. 财经问题研究, 2011(4): 116-121. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-176X.2011.04.018
	[Li Zhongmin, Liu Yuhong,Zhang Qiang.“New Silk Road” transportation infrastructure,spatial spillovers and economic growth—Based on multidimensional feature spatial panel model.Research on Financial and Economic Issues, 2011(4): 116-121.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-176X.2011.04.018
[22]	柳思维, 徐志耀, 唐红涛. 公路基础设施对中部地区城镇化贡献的空间计量分析[J]. 经济地理, 2011, 31(2): 237-241.
	[Liu Saiwei, Xu Zhiyao, Tang Hongtao. A spatial econometric analysis on the contribution of road infrastructure to central regional urbanization.Economic Geography, 2011,31(2):237-241+25.]
[23]	胡艳, 朱文霞.交通基础设施的空间溢出效应——基于东中西部的区域比较[J]. 经济问题探索, 2015(1): 82-88. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2912.2015.01.013
	[Hu Yan, Zhu Wenxia.Spatial spillover effects of transportation infrastructure: A regional comparison based on the eastern, central and western regions in China. Inquiry Into Economic Issues,2015(1): 82-88.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2912.2015.01.013
[24]	王雨飞, 倪鹏飞. 高速铁路影响下的经济增长溢出与区域空间优化[J]. 中国工业经济, 2016(2): 21-36.
	[Wang Yufei, Ni Pengfei.Economic Growth Spillover and Spatial Optimization of High-speed Railway.China Industrial Economics, 2016(2):21-36.]
[25]	丁黄艳. 长江经济带基础设施发展与经济增长的空间特征——基于空间计量与面板门槛模型的实证研究[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2016(1): 24-32. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-3116.2016.01.004
	[Ding Huangyan.Spatial patterns between infrastructre development and economic growth in Yangtze River economic belt:Based on empirical analysis of spatial econometrics and panel threshold model. Statistics & Information Tribune, 2016(1): 24-32.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-3116.2016.01.004
[26]	李红, 张婷.边境省区交通基础设施空间效应分析:门槛、溢出与邻边[J]. 经济问题探索, 2016(2): 97-105.
	[Li Hong, Zhang Ting.Analysis on spatial effect of traffic infrastructure in frontier provinces: Threshold, spillover and adjacent. Inquiry Into Economic Issues, 2016(2): 97-105.]
[27]	Solow Robert M.A contribution to the theory of economic growth[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1956, 70(1): 65-94. doi: 10.2307/1884513
[28]	赵丽霞. 技术进步与福建经济增长马克思主义与现实[J].2006(4): 172-174.
	[Zhao Lixia.Technological progress and Fujian’s economic growth. Marxism & Reality, 2006(4):172-174.]
[29]	Rodruezpose Andr S, Fratesi Ugo. Between development and social policies: The impact of european structural funds in objective 1 Regions[J]. Regional Studies, 2007, 38(1): 97-113. doi: 10.1080/00343400310001632226
[30]	Arbia Giuseppe, Paelinck Jean H P.Spatial econometric modeling of regional convergence in continuous time[J]. International Regional Science Review, 2003, 26(3): 342-362. doi: 10.1177/0160017603255974
[31]	Anselin Luc.Spatial econometrics: Methods and models[J].Studies in Operational Regional Science, 1988, 85(411):310-330.
[32]	Allers Maarten A, Elhorst J Paul.Tax mimicking and yardstick competition among local governments in the Netherlands[J]. International Tax & Public Finance, 2005, 12(12): 493-513. doi: 10.1007/s10797-005-1500-x
[33]	Elhorst J Paul, Frret Sandy.Evidence of political yardstick competition in france using a two-regime spatial durbin model with fixed effects[J]. Journal of Regional Science,2009,49(5): 931-951. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9787.2009.00613.x
[34]	Tobler W R.A Computer movie simulating urban growth in the detroit region[J]. Economic Geography, 1970, 46(2):234-240. doi: 10.2307/143141
[35]	张军, 章元.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究, 2003(7): 35-43+90.
	[Zhang Jun,Zhang Yuan. Recalcuating the capital of China.Economic Research, 2003(7): 35-43+90.]
[36]	Young Alwyn.Gold into base metals: Productivity growth in the People's Republic of China during the reform period[J].Journal of Political Economy, 2003, 111(6): 1220-1261. doi: 10.1086/378532
[37]	吴玉鸣. 旅游经济增长及其溢出效应的空间面板计量经济分析[J]. 旅游学刊, 2014 (2): 16-24.
	[Wu Yuming.Spatial panel econometric analysis of tourism economic growth and its spillover Effects. Tourism Tribune, 2014(2): 16-24.]
[38]	福建省统计局.福建省统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2003-2016.
	[Statistics Bureau of Fujian Province. statistical yearbook of Fujian Province. Beijing:China Statistics Press,2003-2016.]
[39]	丁志国, 赵宣凯, 苏治. 中国经济增长的核心动力——基于资源配置效率的产业升级方向与路径选择[J].中国工业经济,2012(9): 18-30.
	[Ding Zhiguo, Zhao Xuankai, Su Zhi.What is the core driving force of china’s economic growth—Industrial upgrading directions and path choice based on resources efficiency. China Industrial Economics, 2012(9): 18-30.]
[40]	李广培, 董佳玮, 陈细红. 教育投入对福建经济增长贡献率的实证分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 2010(3): 58-61.
	[Li Guangpei,Dong Jiawei, Chen Xihong.An empirical analysis of the contribution rate of educational investment to fujian’s economic growth. Industrial Technology & Economy, 2010(3): 58-61.]

高铁对县域经济增长溢出效应的影响研究——以福建省为例

Spillovers Effect of the High-Speed Railway on Counties’Economic Growth:Taking Fujian Province as An Example

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 6

参考文献 40

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	李博, 田闯, 金翠, 史钊源. 环渤海地区海洋经济增长质量空间溢出效应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(8): 1266-1275.
[2]	王姣娥, 景悦, 杨浩然. 中国高铁-民航竞争网络的空间演化模式及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 675-684.
[3]	刘书舟, 韩增林, 郭建科. 高速铁路对东北城市网络结构的空间影响[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 270-279.
[4]	郭政, 姚士谋, 吴常艳. 中国工业烟粉尘排放时空演化及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 1949-1957.
[5]	张伟丽, 叶信岳, 李栋, 傅继彬, 吴梦荷. 网络关联、空间溢出效应与中国区域经济增长——基于腾讯位置大数据的研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(9): 1371-1377.
[6]	顾朝林,曹根榕. 基于城镇化发展趋势的中国交通网战略布局[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(6): 865-873.
[7]	刘华军, 贾文星. 中国区域经济增长的空间网络关联及收敛性检验[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(5): 726-733.
[8]	贾占华, 谷国锋. 东北地区经济结构失衡水平评价及其对经济增长的影响研究——基于空间计量模型分析[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(4): 636-643.
[9]	王妍, 高强, 李华. 海洋灾害对海洋经济增长影响研究——基于内生经济增长与拓展C-D函数[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(6): 913-918.
[10]	王雪辉, 谷国锋. 基于城、市视角的城市化水平与经济增长关系[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1634-1642.
[11]	熊文, 周莉. 中国天使投资的圈层结构与空间溢出分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(8): 1186-1193.
[12]	孟德友, 魏凌, 樊新生, 高超. 河南“米”字形高铁网构建对可达性及城市空间格局影响[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 850-858.
[13]	王雪辉, 谷国锋. 基于市场潜能的城市经济增长空间格局及溢出效应[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1617-1623.
[14]	吕海萍, 池仁勇, 化祥雨. 创新资源协同空间联系与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据的实证分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1649-1658.
[15]	马丽君, 龙云. 基于社会网络分析法的中国省际入境旅游经济增长空间关联性[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(11): 1705-1711.