地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 717-726.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.05.009

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2005~2014年中国农村水贫困与农业现代化的时空耦合研究

赵雪雁1(), 高志玉1, 马艳艳1, 陈欢欢1, 薛冰2   

  1. 1.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070
    2.中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所, 辽宁 沈阳110016
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-10 修回日期:2018-01-15 出版日期:2018-05-10 发布日期:2018-05-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:赵雪雁(1971-),女,甘肃武都人,教授,主要从事生态经济研究。E-mail: zhaoxy@nwnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA19040502)、国家自然科学基金项目(41661115)、中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室开放基金(KLEIRB-2S-16-03)资助

Spatio-temporal Coupling Between Rural Water Poverty and Agricultural Modernization in China from 2005 to 2014

Xueyan Zhao1(), Zhiyu Gao1, Yanyan Ma1, Huanhuan Chen1, Bing Xue2   

  1. 1.College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
    2. Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2017-05-10 Revised:2018-01-15 Online:2018-05-10 Published:2018-05-10
  • Supported by:
    Category of Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19040502), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41661115), Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin, Chinese Academy of Sciences (KLEIRB-2S-16-03)

摘要:

水贫困与农业现代化问题是影响国家安全与经济发展的两大重要问题,研究二者的耦合关系有助于促进中国资源环境与经济可持续发展。以中国30个省(市、自治区)为研究单元(不含西藏和港澳台),建立农村水贫困和农业现代化水平评价指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型,评估农村水贫困与农业现代化的耦合协调性,并利用空间自相关方法分析2005~2014年农村水贫困、农业现代化及二者耦合协调关系的时空变化。研究结果表明:① 2005~2014年中国农村水贫困程度降低14.68%,西部降幅高于东、中部,且农村水贫困程度一直保持“中-西-东”递减态势;② 农业现代化水平提高5.50%,西部地区增幅高达26.88%,但始终保持着“东-中-西”阶梯式递减态势;③ 农村水贫困与农业现代化水平协调度的区域差异趋于减小,基尼系数降低31.62%,但协调度一直保持着“东-中-西”阶梯式递减趋势;④ 农村水贫困与农业现代化水平协调度的冷点区呈收缩态势,热点区呈扩张态势。最后,提出了降低农村水贫困、提高农业现代化水平及二者协调性的建议。

关键词: 农村水贫困, 农业现代化, 时空耦合, 耦合协调度模型, 中国

Abstract:

Water Poverty and Agricultural Modernization are two important issues that affects Chinese security and economic development. Studying the coupling relationship between them contributes to promoting the sustainable development of resources environment and economy. The paper selected 30 provincial areas of China including autonomous regions as the research unit. Firstly, the water poverty and agricultural modernization’s evaluation index system was set up, the poverty model and the agricultural modernization index were used to calculate the poverty value and agricultural modernization value of each province, and the time series map was established respectively. Then, the spatial distribution of the two was carried out by ArcGIS. Finally, using the coupling coordination model and the coupled coordination Gini coefficient analyze rural water poverty and agricultural modernization coupling coordination and regional differences, as well as using spatial antocorrelation to analyze the spatio-temporal relationship of rural water poverty, agricultural modernization and coupling coordination from 2005 to 2014. The results are obtained as follows: ① The degree of rural water poverty in China decreases by 14.68%.The reason for the decline is mainly the implementation of the 10th Five-year Plan. The central water conservancy work attached great importance to solving the water problem in an important position and made a series of major arrangements and water conservancy investments to maintain a high level. But the degree of water poverty fluctuated in that period due to natural disasters of some areas such as rare historical rainfall, typhoons and droughts. The decreasing amplitude in eastern and western China is smaller than that in central China, maintaining the decreasing tendency of “central-west-east”. The degree of rural water poverty in China was positive spatial autocorrelation within a decade. ② Agricultural modernization level slowly increases by 5.5%. The eastern provinces of the agricultural modernization level are kept above the national average, while the central and western regions are kept below the national average. Although the western China increases by 26.88%, the degree of rural water poverty continues the decreasing trend of “east-central-west”.③ The coordination degree of rural water poverty and agricultural modernization are fluctuating, indicating that the corresponding spatial scale keeps the rising trend. In recent years, the increase of coordination degree is 8.03 %.The regional differences of coordination degree between water poverty and agricultural modernization level tend to decline and the Gini index increases by 31.62%. The index in the western region is much higher than eastern region, but the coordination degree has maintained the increasing tendency of “east-central-west”. ④ The “cold-spot” areas of the coordination degree between water poverty and agricultural modernization level shows the contraction tendency while “hot-spot” areas shows the expansion tendency. Finally, this paper makes suggestions how to reduce the rural water poverty, improve the level of agricultural modernization and coordinate them.

Key words: rural water poverty, agricultural modernization, spatio-temporal coupling, coupling coordination model, China

中图分类号: 

  • K901