地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 764-772.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.05.014

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辽宁省区域碳排放-经济发展-环境保护耦合协调分析

盖美1(), 张福祥2,3()   

  1. 1.辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连 116029
    2.辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁 大连 116029
    3.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林 长春 130102
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-12 修回日期:2017-08-27 出版日期:2018-05-10 发布日期:2018-05-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:盖美(1971-),女,辽宁大连人,博士,教授,主要从事资源经济与可持续发展方面的研究。E-mail:gaimei71@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(14ZDB130)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790021)、辽宁省教育厅项目(W201683606)资助

Regional Carbon Emissions, Economic Development and Environmental Protection Coupling in Liaoning Province

Mei Gai1(), Fuxiang Zhang2,3()   

  1. 1. Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029, Liaoning,China
    2. School of Urban and Environment Sciences, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    3.Northeast Insitute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chuangchun 130102, Jilin, China
  • Received:2017-05-12 Revised:2017-08-27 Online:2018-05-10 Published:2018-05-10
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China (14ZDB130), Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Key Research Base of Major Projects (16JJD790021), The Project of Liaoning Province Department of Education(W201683606)

摘要:

基于三阶段DEA模型测算2004~2015年辽宁省14市的碳排放效率,将碳排放效率分解成技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,并将3种效率作为碳排放系统的评价指标,继而构建区域碳排放-经济发展-环境保护(3E系统)耦合协调评价体系。结果显示:辽宁省三大系统耦合协调度处于较低水平,空间上呈“递进式”进步规律,表现为沈阳、大连领先;鞍山、抚顺、丹东、锦州、营口、辽阳、盘锦、阜新、铁岭、葫芦岛处于中等水平;本溪、朝阳最低的空间分布规律。最后通过灰色GM(1.1)预测模型得到2016~2020年辽宁省3E系统耦合协调度有所提升。研究发现,将碳排放效率作为碳排放系统的评价指标适用于三元系统耦合协调研究,结果与辽宁省实际情况相符。

关键词: 三阶段DEA, 碳排放效率, 三元耦合协调模型, GM(1.1)预测模型

Abstract:

With the carbon emissions rapid increased, the conflict developed among carbon emissions, economic development, and environmental protection. Liaoning Province is a typical province with high energy consumption, economic burden and environmental pollution. Therefore, the research has become a new breakthrough, which in alleviating the contradiction between the social economy and the environment. In this atricle, based on the three stage DEA model, we can calculate carbon emissions efficiency which is divided into technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency of 14 cities in Liaoning Province from 2004 to 2015. Then three coupling model was established to analyze the relationship among the carbon emissions, economic development, and environmental protection (3E system). Meanwhile, GM(1.1) forecast model was also used to analyze the 3E system coupling in Liaoning province from 2016 to 2020, but the results are not optimistic. Based on the forecast results, it is necessary for Liaoning Province to take corresponding measures to solve these problems. The results show that the 3E system coupling in Liaoning Province is still at a low level. Of all the cities in Liaoning Province, Shenyang and Dalian have been leading all the time. In other twelve cities, Anshan, Fushun, Dandong, Jinzhou, Yingkou, Liaoyang, Panjin, Fuxin, Tieling, Huludao show moderate levels; while Benxi, Chaoyang have the lowest level. The coupling degree of 3E system has been promoted during these twelve years. However, the level of 3E system coupling is still low, which has a big margin for improvement. According to the conclusion, taking carbon emissions efficiency as the evaluation index of carbon emissions system is suitable, and the results are coincide with actual situation in Liaoning Province. In order to improve the coupling degree of 3E system and reduce regional differences, we believe that all the regions should unify their own actual development situation, compare superiority and make science formulation development policy. Overall, every city should take appropriate measures to promote region carbon emissions, economic development, and environmental protection.

Key words: three-stage DEA, carbon emissions efficiency, three coupling model, GM(1.1) forecast model

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9