关键词: 人口老龄化, 区域差异, 驱动机制, 地理加权回归模型, 中国

Abstract:

Aging population has been more and more complex as well as one of new normal and core issues which the social development must face in China. Based on the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study explores the regional differences of Chinese ageing population in terms of the degree, pace, social economic impact, and analyzes its driving mechanism using the Geographical Weighed Regression Model (GWR). The results show as follows: 1) During 2000-2010, Chinese population as a whole has entered the stage of ageing, and most of regions stay at the early stage. 2) Except for Shanghai, all other regions are experiencing the acceleration of ageing, and the regional disparity in the degree of ageing is decreasing. 3) The demand for the elder support has increased rapidly. 4) The overall density of aged population remains at the low level, but the local density increases from the west to the east, with the high density zones cluster in a few eastern municipalities. 5) The degree of population aging and spatial layout in China province are the comprehensive results of population natural growth, population growth, mechanical growth and economic level and so on. Among them, the primary leading factor has changed from GDP per capita to emigration rate. In the early stage of economic development, per capita GDP plays a decisive role in promoting. With the development of economy, the influence of per capita GDP on the aging population has decreased. The phenomenon of “not getting rich before getting old” appears, what’s more the phenomenon of “decoupling” between GDP per capita and aging appears in some areas. The rate of population emigration is positively related to population aging, which promoting the degree and speed of population aging as well as increasing the burden on the elderly in the central and western regions. 6) The comprehensive effects of spatial heterogeneity of the mechanism coefficients has promoted the population aging roughly divided the spatial pattern from North-South (with the Yangtze River Basin as the boundary) to East-West differentiation (with the central region as the boundary) in China. The provincial population migration fundamentally restricts the current spatial pattern of China’s population aging. The comprehensive effects of various factors on the central and western regions are slightly stronger than those in the east. 7) The largest population emigration areas are still in the Central and Western Regions, which leading to faster growth rate in the Central and Western Region than in the east and increasing the burden on the elderly rapidly and greater than that in the east. However, the eastern region is the largest population immigration area in china. Natural growth rate has become the main mechanism to curb the rapid development of population aging in the eastern region.

Key words: aging population, regional variations, driving mechanism, Geographical Weighed Regression Model, China