东北地区旅游经济影响因素时空特征研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.06.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从中观层面以东北地区41个市域为分析单元,选择东北振兴战略实施以来2004、2009和2015年截面数据,采用ESDA法分析旅游经济发展的空间关联特征,运用OLS和GWR模型分析旅游经济和旅游产业因子、消费因子、投资因子之间的关系,以此挖掘旅游经济影响因素的时空结构信息。结果表明：① 旅游经济发展呈显著空间正相关,相关性逐渐增大;② OLS回归结果表明,旅游产业因子对旅游经济发展的影响强度最大,在旅游产业发展中始终起基础性决定作用,其次为消费因子和投资因子,后两者差别不大;③ GWR回归结果显示,模型3 a拟合优度均比OLS有所提高,回归系数均为正值,但分布规律不同;旅游产业因子回归系数高值区经历了西南部-中南部-东北部转移,向外围圈层递减;消费因子回归系数高值区由东北部向东南部转移,向外围逐渐递减;投资因子回归系数高值区则由东北部-中南部-东北部转移,向外围逐渐递减。

关键词: 旅游经济, 地理加权回归, 东北地区

Abstract:

Taking cities of Northeastern China as the study object from micro level and selecting 2004, 2009 and 2015 section data since carrying out strategy of rejuvenating in Northeast China, this article analysis spatial correlation characteristics of tourism economic development by ways of ESDA, and the relationship between tourism economy and tourism industry factor, consumer factor, investment factor using OLS and GWR model, for the sake of excavating space and time structure information of tourism economy influence factors. The result shows that: 1) Development of tourism economy shows positive spatial autocorrelation significantly, and the correlation increased gradually. 2) OLS regression result shows that: the influence strength of tourism industry factor on the development of tourism economic is the largest, which always played a basic decision role in the development of the tourism industry, followed by consumer factor and investment factor, the latter two had little difference. 3) GWR regression results show that: GWR goodness of fit has improved and regression coefficients are all positive but the distribution is different. Tourism industry factor high value area of regression coefficient experienced moving from southwest to south-central, then to northeast, and diminishing to the outer circularly. Consumption factors shifted from northeast to the southeast, and diminished to peripheral gradually. Investment factors transferred from northeast to south-central, then to northeast, and diminished to peripheral gradually, too.

Key words: tourism economy, GWR, Northeast China

中图分类号:

F592

关伟, 郝金连. 东北地区旅游经济影响因素时空特征研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(6): 935-943.

Wei Guan, Jinlian Hao. Spatial-temporal Characteristic Study on Impact Factors of Tourism Economy in Northeastern China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(6): 935-943.

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时间	Moran’s I	P	Z得分
2004年	0.0945	0.0730	1.8323
2009年	0.1558	0.0400	2.0730
2015年	0.2042	0.0160	2.6334

影响因子	指标体系	指标释义
旅游产业因子	旅游资源丰度、交通区位指数、星级饭店床位数、旅行社数	旅游景区、旅游交通、旅行社、旅游饭店是旅游产业发展的核心要素,表征旅游目的地吸引力、可达性和接待服务设施状况,即供给指标
消费因子	腹地人口密度、城镇居民人均可支配收入、农村居民人均可支配收入	旅游者对旅游资源、设施和产品的消费能力和消费潜力,即需求指标
投资因子	人均全社会固定资产投资额、人均财政支出	国有经济对旅游产业发展的贡献

模型参数	2004年		2009年		2015年
模型参数	非标准化系数	标准系数	非标准化系数	标准系数	非标准化系数	标准系数
常数项	-1.09841E-006		-5.725E-007		3.429E-7
旅游产业因子	2.276	0.822	2.077	0.771	1.522	0.783
消费因子	1.087	0.378	1.282	0.424	1.662	0.343
投资因子	1.102	0.321	1.038	0.310	1.189	0.373
校正R²	0.915		0.859		0.819

年份	带宽	残差平方和	有效数量	置信系数	调整 R²
2004	14228148	3.148	4.012	0.292	0.921
2009	14228148	5.218	4.012	0.376	0.869
2015	14228148	5.225	4.023	0.335	0.849

年份	Moran’s I	Z	P
2004	-0.034	-0.177	0.859
2009	-0.004	0.400	0.689
2015	-0.059	-0.568	0.353