不同尺度下长江经济带物流联系格局、特征及影响因素研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.07.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

借助从货运网站上抓取的2015年水路货运、公路货运、铁路货运、航空货运OD数据55 623条,基于物质流的视角,采用回归分析,对长江经济带物流联系现状及其影响因素进行了研究。研究发现：① 长江经济带货运网络总体上呈现东部发达、西部落后格局,阶梯状发展特征显著,上海龙头作用显著,省会城市地位突出。② 从影响因子来看,空间尺度越大,规律性越强。航空货运受地区间物流服务能力和基础设施差异的深刻影响,而水路货运主要受地区间转运能力差异影响、陆路货运受多种要素综合影响显著。③ 为助推长江经济带综合立体交通走廊建设,建议东、中部地区注重发挥不同运输方式的协同作用,着力提升区域运输效率。对地形崎岖的西部地区而言,应合理开发和搭配水运和少数空运中心,改善交通区位。

关键词: 长江经济带, 物流联系, 货运网络, 转运能力

Abstract:

Typically speaking, logistics is an important way to the flow of basic elements, and its linkage specifically reflects the “flow space”. This article describes the logistics connection pattern of the Yangtze River economic belt, and quantitatively studies the influencing factors of logistics, obtaining 55 623 OD data of waterway freight, road freight, rail freight and air freight from the freight professional websites in 2015. Conclusions are as follows: 1) Airway freight is the most active in the western provinces, because it is less affected by underlying surface elements. While in the cross-regional linkage, the feature performed by the east-west linkages among big cities is extremely significant. The waterway freight network is the most developed in the eastern area (especially in Jiangsu), followed by the central region, and the western waterway freight network is still in the initial stage of low-intensity link. Compared with the first two freight network, the overall land freight network is well developed which has formed the pattern of the capital city as the network center. Moreover, the eastern region has begun to develop into multi-center network model. 2) Each mode of logistics linkage is affected by different factors. For example, airway freight is influenced by the difference of inter-regional logistics service capacity and infrastructure, which is more likely to make contact with the greater gap between the cities. Waterway freight is mainly affected by the difference of inter-regional transport capacity. The contact form of “Weak transport capacity of the city: strong transport capacity of the city” is extremely obvious. In general, land freight has the most obvious effect of all aspects, which is the result of comprehensive impact of the various elements. 3) In the provincial scale, it is not obvious of the influence from the various factors due to the distinct conditions of each province. Overall, the larger the scale, the stronger the regularity of the impact of the various aspects, the logistics will reflect.

Key words: the Yangtze River Economic Belt, logistics linkage, freight network, transport capacity

中图分类号:

F503

宓泽锋, 曾刚. 不同尺度下长江经济带物流联系格局、特征及影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(7): 1079-1088.

Zefeng Mi, Gang Zeng. Logistics Linkage Pattern, Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Under Different Scales[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(7): 1079-1088.

图/表 5

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图1

表2

表3

表4

3种货运方式的特征总结"

	航空运输	陆路运输	水路运输
联系倾向	① 网络稀疏,倾向于在有物流服务能力、基础设施梯度差的大城市间联系 ② “转运能力弱的城市-转运能力强的城市”（省内联系）	① “转运能力弱的城市-转运能力强的城市” ②“服务能力弱的城市-服务能力强的城市” ③ “基础设施弱的城市-基础设施强的城市” ④ “内向型城市-外向型城市”	① “转运能力弱的城市-转运能力强的城市” ②“内向型城市-外向型城市”
影响因素特征	① 对距离不敏感 ②主要在基础设施、物流服务能力等存在梯度差的跨省、跨区域的城市间进行	① 网络最完善,受各方面因素影响最综合 ②区内联系占主导,受距离影响显著	① 受转运能力和开放度因素影响极为明显
网络整体特征	① 受基础设施、交通便捷性影响,空运成为西部地区重要的货运补充方式;中部由于在交通联系上便捷于西部,而需求上小于东部,成为区内空运的塌陷区 ② 空运的东西向联系特征明显 ③ 省域尺度上受转运能力的影响显著 ④ 整体网络稀疏,各区的中心城市为：昆明、重庆、武汉、上海	① 省内省会城市起到重要的货运枢纽作用 ②东部地区在不同尺度上呈现多中心网络结构,货运联系极为紧密 ③ 区内联系强度最大的是省会城市间的联系 ④ 跨区域联系网络发达,核心节点仍是省会城市	① 依赖于长江水系的水运网络,由于难以保障能直接运达目的地,因此对目的地城市的转运能力要求严格 ② 水运联系是3种运输方式中唯一一种不显著受地区发展水平影响的运输方式,通过长江水系连接不同程度地级市是长江经济带货运网络的一种重要补充 ③ 水运网络呈现东密西疏格局。东部水运网络,尤其是江苏省内水运网络发展极为发达,中部次之,而西部水运网络仍处于起步阶段,有待开发 ④ 水运网络中心城市受长江水运分布影响显著。东部水运网络中心为以镇江、泰州、南通、苏州、无锡等长江下游沿岸地级市组成的条带状区域;中部地区水运网络中心为九江、黄石、武汉、岳阳;西部地区的水运中心为重庆

表4

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因变量			自变量
表征含义	指标		表征含义	指标
航空货运	城市间货运航班数量		经济发展水平	城市间人均GDP差值
航空货运	城市间货运航班数量		物流服务能力	城市间物流企业数量差值
陆路货运	城市间公路货运专线数量城市间铁路专线数量		物流转运能力	城市间物流园区数量差值
			基础设施	城市间路网密度差值
		开放度	城市间开放度差值
水路货运	城市间水运需求总吨数	资源依赖度	城市间采矿业从业人员占比差值
水路货运	城市间水运需求总吨数	距离	城市间的距离

	VIF（带）	VIF（区）	VIF（省）	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1.人均GDP差值	1.49	1.39	1.66	1
2.物流企业数量差值	4.06	4.11	2.90	0.31***	1
3.物流园区数量差值	3.52	3.67	1.61	0.35***	0.53***	1
4.路网密度差值	1.07	1.06	1.03	0.08***	0.11***	0.18***	1
5.采矿业从业人员占比差值	1.01	1.01	1.03	-0.06***	-0.04***	-0.05***	-0.04***	1
6.开放度差值	2.02	1.85	1.79	0.53***	0.59***	0.47***	0.05**	-0.06***	1
7.距离	1.05	1.05	1.13	0.12***	0.02	0.02	0.15***	0.12***	0.06***	1

	空运（带）	陆运（带）	水运（带）	空运（区）	陆运（区）	水运（区）	空运（省）	陆运（省）	水运（省）
人均GDP差值	-2.36e-05**	-6.38e-04***	0.06	-3.95e-05***	-6.75e-04***	-0.22	-9.33e-06	-8.23e-06**	-0.11
物流企业数量差值	0.08***	1.48***	-275.99**	0.04	2.44***	-635.26***	-0.17	5.71***	-379.5
物流园区数量差值	-0.04	3.92***	566.01**	0.03	3.25***	1289.36***	0.21***	2.74***	2662.00***
路网密度差值	4.63***	49.92***	8181.53**	5.70***	46.33***	10163.70*	-0.71	17.93	-869.42
采矿业从业人员占比差值	-0.05*	-1.56***	-354.48*	-0.03	-1.78***	-452.71*	-0.03	-1.32***	-409.32
开放度差值	-7.39	1314.15***	5.54e+06***	-2.18	1364.90***	6.91e+06***	27.02	1523.76***	1.43e+06***
距离	1.41e-04	-0.03***	-22.30***	7.21e-04	-0.09***	-41.82***	3.41e-03	-0.04	-30.57