中国海洋生态效率时空分异及其与海洋产业结构响应关系识别

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用超效率DEA模型对中国海洋生态效率进行测算,运用标准差椭圆对其进行空间可视化表达,最后运用VAR模型对海洋产业结构和海洋生态效率进行脉冲响应分析,以评测中国海洋生态效率时空差异并探究其与海洋产业结构响应关系。结论如下：中国沿海省份海洋第三产业比重占海洋生产总值较大,在研究期内呈现增长趋势;大多数省份海洋产业结构熵值下降,说明该类省份海洋产业发展平稳;在时间上,海洋生态效率总体上处于无效状态,海洋第三产业占比重高的年份,海洋生态效率相对较高;在空间上,海洋生态效率重心总体呈现向北移动趋势,表明北方海洋生态效率的优化进度快于南方;基于沿海各省脉冲响应图可以得出,各省份海洋产业结构对海洋生态效率的冲击最后都趋于平稳,主要原因在于随着中国海洋产业结构升级变动稳定,其对海洋生态效率的影响越来越小;在方差分解部分,沿海各省份海洋产业结构升级对海洋生态效率方差分解的贡献度较高,且呈现增长趋势,说明海洋产业结构升级对海洋生态效率的提升有一定的作用。

关键词: 海洋生态效率, 海洋产业结构, 超效率DEA模型, VAR模型

Abstract:

To evaluate the spatio-termporal difference of marine eco-efficiency of China and explore its response relationship with the structure of the marine industry, the super-efficiency DEA model, the standard deviation ellipse and VAR model were gradually applied to calculate the marine eco-efficiency, visualize spatially and analyze the impulse response of the marine industrial structure and marine eco-efficiency, respectively. The conclusions are as follows: 1) Marine tertiary industry has a large proportion of gross ocean product in coastal provinces of China, showing an increasing trend during the study. The entropy of marine industrial structure declines in most provinces, which indicate that the development of marine industry in these provinces is stable. 2) In terms of time series, marine eco-efficiency is invalid by and large, but the marine eco-efficiency is relatively high in the year when the marine tertiary industry has a high proportion of marine production. In terms of space, the gravity of marine eco-efficiency generally shows trend of moving to north, indicating that optimization of marine eco-efficiency in the north is faster than that in the south. 3) According to the impulse response charts of coastal provinces, it can be concluded that the impact of marine industrial structure of each province on marine eco-efficiency has finally stabilized. The main reason is that as China’s marine industry structure stabilizes, its impact on marine eco-efficiency is getting smaller and smaller; From the perspective of variance decomposition, the marine industrial structure upgrading in coastal provinces has a higher contribution to the decomposition of marine eco-efficiency variance, and it shows a growth trend, indicating that the upgrading of marine industrial structure has a certain effect on the improvement of marine eco-efficiency.

Key words: marine eco-efficiency, marire industry structure, super-efficiency DEA model, VAR model

中图分类号:

F062.2

狄乾斌, 梁倩颖. 中国海洋生态效率时空分异及其与海洋产业结构响应关系识别[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1606-1615.

Qianbin Di, Qianying Liang. Spatio-temporal Difference of Marine Eco-efficiency and Identification of Its Response Relationship with Marine Industrial Structure in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(10): 1606-1615.

图/表 8

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维度层	准则层	次准则层	要素层	指标说明
投入	资源消耗	能源消耗	沿海地区风能发电（10⁴kW）	反映海洋新能源发展状况
		人力消耗	涉海就业人员(万人)	反映从事海洋生产人员数量
		资本消耗	固定资本存量（亿元）	反映发展海洋经济所需要的基础设施
		土地消耗	海域利用度（%）	海水可养殖面积/确权海域面积
		土地消耗	近（海）及海岸湿地面积（10⁴ hm²）	反映海洋开发中对于海洋生态的保护
		环境保护	海洋自然保护区个数（个）	反映发展海洋过程中对海洋生态的保护情况
	环境污染	废水排放	工业废水直排入海量（10⁶kg）	反映海洋生态污染
		海洋污染	赤潮灾害受灾面积(km²)	反映海洋生态污染
		自然灾害	风暴潮灾害直接经济损失（亿元）	反映自然灾害对海洋生态的破坏
	科技消耗	海洋科技	海洋科技人员中高级职称人员所占比重（%）	反映海洋科研水平
		海洋科技	海洋机构科技课题数（个）	反映海洋科技水平
		海洋教育	海洋专业博士点数（个）	反映海洋教育发展情况
产出	海洋经济发展总量		海洋经济生产总值（亿元）	反映海洋经济发展状况

年份	2001	2003	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	平均值	排名
辽宁	0.313	1.046	0.354	0.453	0.689	0.559	0.520	0.442	0.526	8
河北	0.338	0.515	0.357	1.143	0.622	0.612	0.527	1.155	0.707	6
天津	0.376	0.836	0.519	0.493	0.682	1.026	0.945	1.106	0.733	5
山东	0.591	1.141	0.509	0.440	1.033	0.714	1.088	1.350	0.764	4
江苏	0.183	0.561	0.215	0.356	0.422	0.536	0.479	0.558	0.433	10
上海	1.061	1.098	1.139	2.391	1.877	1.314	1.301	1.178	1.430	1
浙江	0.528	1.047	0.569	0.502	1.050	1.053	0.730	0.596	0.804	3
福建	0.537	0.909	0.423	0.453	0.872	0.765	0.751	0.709	0.659	7
广东	1.932	1.117	1.929	0.490	1.046	1.041	1.128	1.028	1.193	2
广西	0.356	0.353	0.270	0.322	0.429	0.390	0.388	0.382	0.352	11
海南	0.318	0.582	0.372	0.355	0.501	0.383	0.435	0.423	0.408	9
全国均值	0.594	0.837	0.605	0.673	0.838	0.763	0.754	0.811	0.728

变量	海洋产业结构					海洋生态效率
	ADF检验值	各显著性水平下的临界值			检验结论	ADF检验值	各显著性水平下的临界值			检验结论
	ADF检验值	1%	5%	10%	检验结论	ADF检验值	1%	5%	10%	检验结论
辽宁	-5.631	-4.122	-3.145	-2.714	在1%水平上显著	-13.517	-4.200	-3.175	-2.729	在1%水平上显著
河北	-3.281	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在5%水平上显著	-2.797	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在10%水平上显著
天津	-3.517	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在5%水平上显著	-3.664	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在5%水平上显著
山东	-2.819	-4.122	-3.145	-2.714	在10%水平上显著	-6.110	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在1%水平上显著
江苏	-4.423	-4.200	-3.175	-2.729	在1%水平上显著	-5.553	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在1%水平上显著
上海	-3.423	-4.122	-3.145	-2.714	在5%水平上显著	-3.526	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在5%水平上显著
浙江	-3.662	-4.297	-3.213	-2.748	在5%水平上显著	-3.860	-4.297	-3.243	-2.748	在5%水平上显著
福建	-5.895	-4.421	-3.260	-2.771	在1%水平上显著	-4.736	-4.297	-3.213	-2.748	在1%水平上显著
广东	-3.275	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在5%水平上显著	-4.505	-4.297	-3.123	-2.748	在1%水平上显著
广西	-4.898	-4.200	-3.175	-2.729	在1%水平上显著	-4.667	-4.122	-3.145	-2.714	在1%水平上显著
海南	-4.859	-4.058	-3.120	-2.701	在1%水平上显著	-3.134	-4.200	-3.175	-2.729	在10%水平上显著

	环渤海地区				长三角地区			泛珠三角地区
	辽宁	河北	天津	山东	江苏	上海	浙江	福建	广东	广西	海南
1	21.305	62.459	62.687	36.293	0.994	36.293	4.905	13.035	17.741	6.824	11.540
2	57.570	71.053	60.562	37.714	25.115	37.714	4.498	11.844	21.927	9.117	9.805
3	53.867	71.936	57.242	45.768	37.780	45.768	5.821	23.629	17.549	10.987	11.437
4	56.225	71.084	54.428	46.078	42.793	46.078	7.195	40.979	17.250	12.239	11.869
5	55.182	71.038	52.540	46.861	41.981	45.861	7.661	48.084	17.976	12.506	11.810
6	55.547	71.011	51.496	46.286	41.939	46.286	7.635	49.609	18.610	12.668	11.792
7	55.491	71.016	51.047	46.362	41.771	46.362	7.604	49.574	18.444	12.758	11.738
8	55.474	71.028	50.939	46.378	41.912	46.378	7.603	49.342	18.388	12.811	11.760
9	55.502	71.025	50.983	46.429	41.029	46.429	7.585	49.154	18.508	12.841	11.774
10	55.484	71.024	51.067	46.477	42.092	46.477	7.566	49.163	18.626	12.841	11.774
11	55.494	71.024	51.140	46.495	42.088	46.495	7.563	49.370	18.657	12.859	11.774
12	55.490	71.024	51.187	46.497	42.087	46.497	7.567	49.563	18.669	12.869	11.773
13	55.492	71.024	51.210	46.506	42.085	46.506	7.568	49.634	18.696	12.874	11.773
14	55.492	71.024	51.517	46.512	42.088	46.512	7.566	49.638	18.724	12.878	11.773
15	55.491	71.024	51.216	46.512	42.090	46.512	7.566	49.633	18.741	12.880	11.735