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地理科学    2018, Vol. 38 Issue (10): 1606-1615     DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.004
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中国海洋生态效率时空分异及其与海洋产业结构响应关系识别
狄乾斌(),梁倩颖
辽宁师范大学海洋经济可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连 116029
Spatio-temporal Difference of Marine Eco-efficiency and Identification of Its Response Relationship with Marine Industrial Structure in China
Qianbin Di(),Qianying Liang
Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development of Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
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摘要 

采用超效率DEA模型对中国海洋生态效率进行测算,运用标准差椭圆对其进行空间可视化表达,最后运用VAR模型对海洋产业结构和海洋生态效率进行脉冲响应分析,以评测中国海洋生态效率时空差异并探究其与海洋产业结构响应关系。结论如下:中国沿海省份海洋第三产业比重占海洋生产总值较大,在研究期内呈现增长趋势;大多数省份海洋产业结构熵值下降,说明该类省份海洋产业发展平稳;在时间上,海洋生态效率总体上处于无效状态,海洋第三产业占比重高的年份,海洋生态效率相对较高;在空间上,海洋生态效率重心总体呈现向北移动趋势,表明北方海洋生态效率的优化进度快于南方;基于沿海各省脉冲响应图可以得出,各省份海洋产业结构对海洋生态效率的冲击最后都趋于平稳,主要原因在于随着中国海洋产业结构升级变动稳定,其对海洋生态效率的影响越来越小;在方差分解部分,沿海各省份海洋产业结构升级对海洋生态效率方差分解的贡献度较高,且呈现增长趋势,说明海洋产业结构升级对海洋生态效率的提升有一定的作用。

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狄乾斌
梁倩颖
关键词 海洋生态效率海洋产业结构超效率DEA模型VAR模型 
Abstract

To evaluate the spatio-termporal difference of marine eco-efficiency of China and explore its response relationship with the structure of the marine industry, the super-efficiency DEA model, the standard deviation ellipse and VAR model were gradually applied to calculate the marine eco-efficiency, visualize spatially and analyze the impulse response of the marine industrial structure and marine eco-efficiency, respectively. The conclusions are as follows: 1) Marine tertiary industry has a large proportion of gross ocean product in coastal provinces of China, showing an increasing trend during the study. The entropy of marine industrial structure declines in most provinces, which indicate that the development of marine industry in these provinces is stable. 2) In terms of time series, marine eco-efficiency is invalid by and large, but the marine eco-efficiency is relatively high in the year when the marine tertiary industry has a high proportion of marine production. In terms of space, the gravity of marine eco-efficiency generally shows trend of moving to north, indicating that optimization of marine eco-efficiency in the north is faster than that in the south. 3) According to the impulse response charts of coastal provinces, it can be concluded that the impact of marine industrial structure of each province on marine eco-efficiency has finally stabilized. The main reason is that as China’s marine industry structure stabilizes, its impact on marine eco-efficiency is getting smaller and smaller; From the perspective of variance decomposition, the marine industrial structure upgrading in coastal provinces has a higher contribution to the decomposition of marine eco-efficiency variance, and it shows a growth trend, indicating that the upgrading of marine industrial structure has a certain effect on the improvement of marine eco-efficiency.

Key wordsmarine eco-efficiency    marire industry structure    super-efficiency DEA model    VAR model
收稿日期: 2017-12-08      出版日期: 2018-12-14
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41571127)、教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(17JJD790010)资助
引用本文:   
狄乾斌, 梁倩颖 . 中国海洋生态效率时空分异及其与海洋产业结构响应关系识别[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1606-1615.
Qianbin Di, Qianying Liang . Spatio-temporal Difference of Marine Eco-efficiency and Identification of Its Response Relationship with Marine Industrial Structure in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(10): 1606-1615.
链接本文:  
http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.004      或      http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V38/I10/1606
维度层 准则层 次准则层 要素层 指标说明
投入 资源消耗 能源消耗 沿海地区风能发电(104kW) 反映海洋新能源发展状况
人力消耗 涉海就业人员(万人) 反映从事海洋生产人员数量
资本消耗 固定资本存量(亿元) 反映发展海洋经济所需要的基础设施
土地消耗 海域利用度(%) 海水可养殖面积/确权海域面积
近(海)及海岸湿地面积(104 hm2 反映海洋开发中对于海洋生态的保护
环境保护 海洋自然保护区个数(个) 反映发展海洋过程中对海洋生态的保护情况
环境污染 废水排放 工业废水直排入海量(106 kg) 反映海洋生态污染
海洋污染 赤潮灾害受灾面积(km2) 反映海洋生态污染
自然灾害 风暴潮灾害直接经济损失(亿元) 反映自然灾害对海洋生态的破坏
科技消耗 海洋科技 海洋科技人员中高级职称人员所占比重(%) 反映海洋科研水平
海洋机构科技课题数(个) 反映海洋科技水平
海洋教育 海洋专业博士点数(个) 反映海洋教育发展情况
产出 海洋经济发展总量 海洋经济生产总值(亿元) 反映海洋经济发展状况
Table 1  中国海洋生态效率评价指标体系
Fig.1  中国沿海各省市海洋产业结构总体特征及产业结构熵
年份 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 平均值 排名
辽宁 0.313 1.046 0.354 0.453 0.689 0.559 0.520 0.442 0.526 8
河北 0.338 0.515 0.357 1.143 0.622 0.612 0.527 1.155 0.707 6
天津 0.376 0.836 0.519 0.493 0.682 1.026 0.945 1.106 0.733 5
山东 0.591 1.141 0.509 0.440 1.033 0.714 1.088 1.350 0.764 4
江苏 0.183 0.561 0.215 0.356 0.422 0.536 0.479 0.558 0.433 10
上海 1.061 1.098 1.139 2.391 1.877 1.314 1.301 1.178 1.430 1
浙江 0.528 1.047 0.569 0.502 1.050 1.053 0.730 0.596 0.804 3
福建 0.537 0.909 0.423 0.453 0.872 0.765 0.751 0.709 0.659 7
广东 1.932 1.117 1.929 0.490 1.046 1.041 1.128 1.028 1.193 2
广西 0.356 0.353 0.270 0.322 0.429 0.390 0.388 0.382 0.352 11
海南 0.318 0.582 0.372 0.355 0.501 0.383 0.435 0.423 0.408 9
全国均值 0.594 0.837 0.605 0.673 0.838 0.763 0.754 0.811 0.728
Table 2  中国沿海各省市海洋生态效率
Fig.2  中国海洋生态效率重心偏移
Fig.3  中国海洋生态效率重心移动距离及标准差椭圆长短轴变化
变量 海洋产业结构 海洋生态效率
ADF检验值 各显著性水平下的临界值 检验结论 ADF检验值 各显著性水平下的临界值 检验结论
1% 5% 10% 1% 5% 10%
辽宁 -5.631 -4.122 -3.145 -2.714 在1%水平上显著 -13.517 -4.200 -3.175 -2.729 在1%水平上显著
河北 -3.281 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在5%水平上显著 -2.797 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在10%水平上显著
天津 -3.517 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在5%水平上显著 -3.664 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在5%水平上显著
山东 -2.819 -4.122 -3.145 -2.714 在10%水平上显著 -6.110 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在1%水平上显著
江苏 -4.423 -4.200 -3.175 -2.729 在1%水平上显著 -5.553 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在1%水平上显著
上海 -3.423 -4.122 -3.145 -2.714 在5%水平上显著 -3.526 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在5%水平上显著
浙江 -3.662 -4.297 -3.213 -2.748 在5%水平上显著 -3.860 -4.297 -3.243 -2.748 在5%水平上显著
福建 -5.895 -4.421 -3.260 -2.771 在1%水平上显著 -4.736 -4.297 -3.213 -2.748 在1%水平上显著
广东 -3.275 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在5%水平上显著 -4.505 -4.297 -3.123 -2.748 在1%水平上显著
广西 -4.898 -4.200 -3.175 -2.729 在1%水平上显著 -4.667 -4.122 -3.145 -2.714 在1%水平上显著
海南 -4.859 -4.058 -3.120 -2.701 在1%水平上显著 -3.134 -4.200 -3.175 -2.729 在10%水平上显著
Table 3  数列平稳性检验结果
Fig.4  中国沿海各省市海洋产业结构与海洋生态效率脉冲响应关系
环渤海地区 长三角地区 泛珠三角地区
辽宁 河北 天津 山东 江苏 上海 浙江 福建 广东 广西 海南
1 21.305 62.459 62.687 36.293 0.994 36.293 4.905 13.035 17.741 6.824 11.540
2 57.570 71.053 60.562 37.714 25.115 37.714 4.498 11.844 21.927 9.117 9.805
3 53.867 71.936 57.242 45.768 37.780 45.768 5.821 23.629 17.549 10.987 11.437
4 56.225 71.084 54.428 46.078 42.793 46.078 7.195 40.979 17.250 12.239 11.869
5 55.182 71.038 52.540 46.861 41.981 45.861 7.661 48.084 17.976 12.506 11.810
6 55.547 71.011 51.496 46.286 41.939 46.286 7.635 49.609 18.610 12.668 11.792
7 55.491 71.016 51.047 46.362 41.771 46.362 7.604 49.574 18.444 12.758 11.738
8 55.474 71.028 50.939 46.378 41.912 46.378 7.603 49.342 18.388 12.811 11.760
9 55.502 71.025 50.983 46.429 41.029 46.429 7.585 49.154 18.508 12.841 11.774
10 55.484 71.024 51.067 46.477 42.092 46.477 7.566 49.163 18.626 12.841 11.774
11 55.494 71.024 51.140 46.495 42.088 46.495 7.563 49.370 18.657 12.859 11.774
12 55.490 71.024 51.187 46.497 42.087 46.497 7.567 49.563 18.669 12.869 11.773
13 55.492 71.024 51.210 46.506 42.085 46.506 7.568 49.634 18.696 12.874 11.773
14 55.492 71.024 51.517 46.512 42.088 46.512 7.566 49.638 18.724 12.878 11.773
15 55.491 71.024 51.216 46.512 42.090 46.512 7.566 49.633 18.741 12.880 11.735
Table 4  海洋生态效率方差分解(%)
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