δ趋同,β趋同," /> δ趋同,β趋同,"/> δconvergence,β convergence;,"/> 中国省域旅游经济增长的时空跃迁及其趋同研究
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地理科学    2018, Vol. 38 Issue (10): 1616-1623     DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.005
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中国省域旅游经济增长的时空跃迁及其趋同研究
方叶林1(),黄震方2,李经龙1,王芳3
1.安徽大学商学院, 安徽 合肥 230601
2.南京师范大学地理科学学院旅游系, 江苏 南京 210023
3. 安徽财贸职业学院朱熹文旅学院, 安徽 合肥 230601
Space-time Transition of Tourism Economic Growth and Its Convergence in Chinese Mainland
Yelin Fang1(),Zhenfang Huang2,Jinglong Li1,Fang Wang3
1. School of Business, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, Anhui, China
2. College of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
3. School of Zhuxi Culture and Tourism, Anhui Finance & Trade Vocational College, Hefei 230601, Anhui, China
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摘要 

利用1997~2015年中国省域旅游经济相关数据,综合LISA时空跃迁模型及相关计量分析方法,分析省域旅游经济的时空演化是否会导致趋同现象。研究结果表明:1997~2015年,中国三大地带LISA时间路径相对长度表现出东部大于中部,中部大于西部的空间格局;LISA时间路径弯曲度表现出中部大于西部,西部大于东部的空间格局。省域旅游经济增长δ趋同较为显著,总体上绝对β趋同不显著,但在不同时段上绝对β趋同显著。区域经济、区位交通与市场化程度是影响省域旅游经济条件β趋同的主要因素。旅游经济时空跃迁与俱乐部趋同具有一定的关联性,东中部地区旅游经济增长的俱乐部趋同较为显著。

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方叶林
黄震方
李经龙
王芳
关键词 省域旅游经济时空跃迁δ趋同')" href="#">δ趋同β趋同')" href="#">β趋同 
Abstract

The relationship between the results of time-space evolution and its convergence and divergence should be one of the main directions of human geography in the future. By taking the related data of provincial tourism economy in the Chinese Mainland from 1997 to 2015, comprehensively using the methods of LISA time hopping model, and related quantitative analysis methods, it analyze whether the time-space evolution of provincial tourism economy will lead to convergence phenomenon. The results show that: the relative length of LISA time path in the three major regions of Chinese Mainland presents that the East is larger than the Middle, while the Middle is larger than the West. However, the time path curvature of LISA shows that the Middle is larger than the West, while the West is larger than the East from 1997 to 2015. The time path movement direction of LISA shows that: the spatial pattern of provincial tourism economic development in Chinese Mainland has a weak optimization trend from 1997 to 2015. The spatial cohesion of provincial tourism economy is 0.71 in Chinese Mainland, which reflects the spatial correlation and agglomeration characteristics of provincial tourism economy presenting a high stability situation, and there is a certain path dependence or locking effect. It has a significant δ convergence of provincial tourism economy growth, generally speaking, absolute β convergence is not significant, but it is significant at different time period. In the long run, the absolute β convergence is not significant about tourism economy growth; however, in the short term, absolute β convergence rate appears weak increasing trend. There is a regional differentiation, which the introduction of regional dummy variables has significant influence on conditional β convergence, so it is necessary to introduce other variables for parameter estimation. Regional economy, location and transportation, marketization degree are the main factors that influence the conditional β convergence of provincial tourism economy. There is a downward trend compared with the compound regression coefficient and single regression coefficient, reflecting that the influence factors of tourism economic growth has not well optimized and combined, the external environment still needs to be optimized. There is some relationship between space-time transition and club convergence of provincial tourism economy, and the club convergence of the tourism economy growth in the East and Middle is more obvious. The club convergence will lead to the reduction of the gap in the groups, but the gap between groups will increase. Therefore, the cross regional tourism cooperation, which will break geographical location, needs to be strengthened in the future.

Key wordsprovincial tourism economy    space-time transition    δconvergence')" href="#">δconvergence    β convergence;
收稿日期: 2017-09-07      出版日期: 2018-12-14
基金资助:国家自然科学青年基金项目(41601142)、教育部人文社科青年基金项目(15YJC790018)、安徽大学校学术与技术带头人引进工程 (J10117700056)、安徽大学青年骨干教师培养项目(J01005141)资助
引用本文:   
方叶林, 黄震方, 李经龙等 . 中国省域旅游经济增长的时空跃迁及其趋同研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1616-1623.
Yelin Fang, Zhenfang Huang, Jinglong Li et al . Space-time Transition of Tourism Economic Growth and Its Convergence in Chinese Mainland[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(10): 1616-1623.
链接本文:  
http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.005      或      http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V38/I10/1616
Fig.1  1997年以来中国旅游发展状况
Fig.2  LISA时间路径几何特征的空间分布
Fig.3  人均旅游收入的变异系数与增长率
时间段 截距项 系数b R2 β DW F
1997~2003年 5.898
(3.782)***
1.241
(-3.017)***
0.139 -0.356 1.822 4.672
2004~2008年 5.148
(4.530)***
-1.021
(-2.839)***
0.217 -0.407 1.753 8.059
2009~2015年 13.232
(5.501)***
-2.811***
(-4.302)
0.390 -0.480 2.082 18.503
1997~2015年 8.598
(6.961)
-1.743
(-0.004)
0.418 -0.210 1.984 20.852
Table 1  不同时段旅游经济的β趋同验证
回归1 回归2 回归3 回归4
总体 东部地区 中部地区 西部地区
系数b -6.885(-8.034)*** -18.279(-1.474) 27.761(1.161) -3.419(-0.633)
Adj. R2 0.425 0.324 0.229 0.048
F 12.101 3.635 2.187 1.228
DW 1.666 2.232 2.174 2.751
Table 2  加入地区虚拟变量后β趋同验证
解释变量 区域经济 区位交通 产业结构 市场化
程度
城市化
水平
截距项 52.696
(12.691)***
76.676
(0.560)
73.323
(6.340)***
63.954
(2.083)**
26.430
(3.836)***
系数b -6.885
(-2.482)**
-15.190
(-4.399)***
-13.854
(-3.568)**
-9.424
(-2.142)*
-6.455
(-1.181)
系数m 2.153
(8.512)***
1.164
(-5.394)***
2.410
(0.943)
1.038
(5.066)***
2.069
(0.074)
R2 0.464 0.423 0.438 0.497 0.498
F 12.102 10.264 10.897 13.809 13.837
DW 1.966 1.692 2.044 2.099 1.582
Table 3  单个解释变量回归结果
区域 截距项 b R2 DW F
Ni低值区 49.967(1.348) -5.795(-0.501) 0.027 1.672 0.251
Ni中值区 83.705(3.078)** -16.913(-2.142) 0.364 2.477 4.587
Ni高值区 88.276(6.572)*** -18.357(-4.767)*** 0.740 1.995 22.726
Di低值区 65.320(4.784)*** -12.776(-3.328)** 0.552 1.606 11.074
Di中值区 53.407(3.597)** -7.687(-1.701) 0.266 1.578 2.893
Di高值区 3.269(0.165) 9.680(1.584) 0.239 2.278 2.509
Table 4  俱乐部趋同验证结果
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