地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (10): 1653-1660.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.009
收稿日期:
2018-05-09
修回日期:
2018-08-25
出版日期:
2018-12-12
发布日期:
2018-12-12
作者简介:
作者简介:白景锋(1972-),男,陕西洛南人,教授,硕士,主要研究方向为区域发展与资源开发。E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2018-05-09
Revised:
2018-08-25
Online:
2018-12-12
Published:
2018-12-12
Supported by:
摘要:
采用主成分分析法,把构建的水资源、能源和粮食的压力指数分解为3个正交向量,以矢量合成法计算水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)总压力指数。在考察1997~2015年30个省区(香港、澳门和台湾无数据,西藏缺能源数据)的水资源压力指数、能源压力指数、粮食压力指数和W-E-F总压力指数的时序变化后,选取8个反映总压力指数变化的指标,截取1997、2004、2015年3个断面,采用地理加权回归(GWR)模型对影响中国W-E-F压力指数变化的因素进行分析。结论如下:① 时间上看,W-E-F总压力先升后降;空间上看,从东南沿海向西北内陆W-E-F总压力逐渐递减,东北和沿海城市化水平高的地区压力较大。② 能源压力对中国W-E-F总压力的贡献最大,中东部地区的能源压力指数更高,淮河以北地区的水资源压力指数更高,东部的长江口以南沿海区域和广大西部地区的粮食压力指数更高。③ 1997~2015年,全国水资源压力指数多数地区上升,能源压力指数和粮食压力指数大部分地区下降。④ 不同时段,W-E-F压力变化的驱动力不同。总体上看,大部分指标与W-E-F压力变化同向,人均受教育水平和人均GDP与W-E-F压力变化反向,人口密度增大、食物构成变化、粮食生产条件和经济发展是W-E-F压力升高的主因。在分析时段内,随着时间推移,社会因素和经济因素的影响在增大,提高人均受教育水平和经济转型发展是降低W-E-F压力的有效途径。
中图分类号:
白景锋, 张海军. 中国水-能源-粮食压力时空变动及驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1653-1660.
Jingfeng Bai, Haijun Zhang. Spatio-temporal Variation and Driving Force of Water-Energy-Food Pressure in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(10): 1653-1660.
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