北京地区城市热岛强度长期变化特征及气候学影响机制

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选择北京地区为研究区,基于1967~2016年城市站（北京站）和城郊农村站（密云站）的长期气象观测数据,研究平均气温、最高气温、最低气温对应的城市热岛强度长期变化特征及其气候学影响机制。研究发现,过去50 a平均气温和最低气温对应的城市热岛强度显著增加,增温率分别为0.29℃/10a和0.45℃/10a,而最高气温对应的城市热岛强度则没有明显变化趋势;统计分析显示过去50 a北京地区相对湿度、风速和日照时数显著降低以及气温显著上升有利于城市热岛的形成,强化城市热岛强度;未来全球变暖和快速城市化背景下北京地区城市热岛效应将进一步加剧,形成更频繁和持续时间更长的夏季城市高温热浪,严重危及城市居民生产生活和生命健康。

关键词: 城市热岛强度, 长期趋势, 相对湿度, 风速, 气压, 北京地区

Abstract:

Urban heat island (UHI) has an important effect on urban eco-environment, living and production, and physical and mental health of the residents. In addition, urban warming especially summer heat wave caused by UHI significantly affects many aspects of the global economy, such as energy and water consumption, transportation, and social economy. Understanding of long-term trend of urban heat island intensity and its climatological driving mechanism will help the rational urban planning, urban livable construction, and urban sustainable development. Beijing is the center of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, and has experienced a rapid urbanization process in the past few decades. This study aims to elucidate the long-term trends of UHI intensities of mean air temperature, minimum air temperature, and maximum air temperature and the climatological driving mechanism based on 50 years (1967-2016) meteorological observation data from urban station (Beijing station) and rural station (Miyun station). In the past five decades, the UHI intensities of mean air temperature, and minimum air temperature showed a significant increasing trend with the increasing rates of 0.29℃/decade (r²=0.59, P<0.001) and 0.45℃/decade (r²=0.62, P<0.001) respectively. In contrast, no marked variability trend was observed for the UHI intensities of maximum air temperature. Statistical analysis has shown that relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration decreased significantly and air temperature increased significantly in Beijing over the past 50 years, which is conducive to the formation of UHI and the enhancement of UHI intensity. Multiple stepwise linear regressions showed that relative humidity, maximum wind speed, and atmospheric pressure were the key climatological factors controlling UHI intensities of mean air temperature and minimum air temperature, which could explain 92.4% and 87.6% of variabilities respectively. Atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and sunshine duration were the key climatological factors controlling UHI intensities of maximum air temperature. Under the background of global warming and rapid urbanization, UHI effect in Beijing will further intensify, resulting in more frequent and prolonged summer urban heat waves, which will seriously endanger urban residents' production, life and health. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effects of UHI on the future urban planning and construction. By optimizing urban layout, carrying out reasonable road system planning, energy planning and ecosystem planning and other measures, we can alleviate UHI effects and reduce high temperature and heat waves harm caused by UHI.

Key words: urban heat island intensity, long-term trend, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, Beijing City

中图分类号:

P463.3

黄群芳, 陆玉麒. 北京地区城市热岛强度长期变化特征及气候学影响机制[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1715-1723.

Qunfang Huang, Yuqi Lu. Long-term Trend of Urban Heat Island Intensity and Climatological Affecting Mechanism in Bejing City[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(10): 1715-1723.

图/表 6

图1

图2

图3

表1

图4

图5

参考文献 40

[1]	Stocker T F, Qin D H, Plattner G K. Climate change2013: The physical science basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC, 2013).
[2]	Huang Q, Lu Y.The effect of urban heat island on climate warming in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in China[J]. International journal of environmental research and public health, 2015, 12(8): 8773-8789. doi: 10.3390/ijerph120808773 pmid: 4555247
[3]	Stone B.Urban and rural temperature trends in proximity to large US cities: 1951-2000[J]. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2007, 27(13): 1801-1807. doi: 10.1002/joc.1555
[4]	Zhou L, Dickinson R E, Tian Y et al. Evidence for a significant urbanization effect on climate in China[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2004, 101(26): 9540-9544.
[5]	Peng J, Ma J, Liu Q et al. Spatial-temporal change of land surface temperature across 285 cities in China: An urban-rural contrast perspective[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2018, 635: 487-497. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.105 pmid: 29677674
[6]	Stewart I D.A systematic review and scientific critique of methodology in modern urban heat island literature[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2011, 31(2): 200-217. doi: 10.1002/joc.2141
[7]	United Nations.World urbanization prospects: the 2011 revisions, population division [R]. 2012: 14
[8]	Mihalakakou G, Santamouris M, Papanikolaou N et al. Simulation of the urban heat island phenomenon in Mediterranean climates[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2004, 161(2): 429-451. doi: 10.1007/s00024-003-2447-4
[9]	钱佳丽, 朱昊辰, 贺文智, 等. 上海的雾霾天气特征及影响因素[J].上海节能, 2015(8): 424-430. doi: 10.13770/j.cnki.issn2095-705x.2015.08.005
	[Qian Jiali, Zhu Haochen, He Wenzhi et al. Shanghai fog and haze weather characteristics and influencing factors. Shanghai Energy Conservation, 2015 (8): 424-430.] doi: 10.13770/j.cnki.issn2095-705x.2015.08.005
[10]	Xu J, Chang L, Yan F et al. Role of climate anomalies on decadal variation in the occurrence of wintertime haze in the Yangtze River Delta, China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2017, 599: 918-925. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.015 pmid: 28501016
[11]	姚远, 陈曦, 钱静. 城市地表热环境研究进展[J]. 生态学报, 2018, 38(3): 1134-1147.
	[Yao Yuan, Chen Xi, Qian Jing.Research progress on the thermal environment of the urban surfaces. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018, 38(3): 1134-1147.]
[12]	Patz J A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T et al. Impact of regional climate change on human health[J]. Nature, 2005, 438(7066): 310. doi: 10.1038/nature04188 pmid: 16292302
[13]	Meehl G A, Tebaldi C.More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century[J]. Science, 2004, 305(5686): 994-997. doi: 10.1126/science.1098704 pmid: 15310900
[14]	Ward K, Lauf S, Kleinschmit B et al. Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2016, 569: 527-539. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.119 pmid: 27366983
[15]	Santamouris M.On the energy impact of urban heat island and global warming on buildings[J]. Energy and Buildings, 2014, 82: 100-113. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.07.022
[16]	Huang Q, Lu Y.Urban heat island research from 1991 to 2015: a bibliometric analysis[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2018, 131(3-4): 1055-1067.
[17]	Arnds D, Böhner J, Bechtel B.Spatio-temporal variance and meteorological drivers of the urban heat island in a European city[J]. Theoretical and applied climatology, 2017, 128(1-2): 43-61. doi: 10.1007/s00704-015-1687-4
[18]	Szegedi S, Kircsi A.The effects of the synoptic conditions on development of the urban heat island in Debrecen, Hungary[J]. Acta Climatologica et Chorologica Universitatis Szegediensis, 2003, 36(37): 111-120.
[19]	王清川, 郭立平, 张绍恢. 不同气象条件下廊坊城市热岛效应变化特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2009, 25(6): 44-48. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2009.06.009
	[Wang Qingchuan, Guo Liping, Zhang Shaohui.Urban heat island effect under different meteorological conditions over Langfang Hebei Province. Journal of Meteorology and Enviroment, 2009, 25(6): 44-48.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2009.06.009
[20]	王晓默, 张翠翠, 董宁, 等. 不同气象条件下济宁城市热岛效应的变化特征[J]. 南京信息工程大学学报, 2016, 8(2): 160-165. doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.jnuist.2016.02.008
	[Wang Xiaomo, Zhang Cuicui, Dong Ning et al. Urban heat island effect under different meteorological conditions in Jining of Shandong Province. Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology: Natural Science Edition, 2016, 8(2):160-165.] doi: 10.13878/j.cnki.jnuist.2016.02.008
[21]	李丽光, 梁志兵, 王宏博, 等. 不同天气条件下沈阳城市热岛特征[J]. 大气科学学报, 2011, 34(1): 66-73. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2011.01.009
	[Li Liguang, Liang Zhibing, Wang Hongbo et al. Urban heat island characteristics in Shenyang under different weather conditions. Transactions od Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 34(1): 66-73.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-7097.2011.01.009
[22]	Morris C J G, Simmonds I. Associations between varying magnitudes of the urban heat island and the synoptic climatology in Melbourne, Australia[J]. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2000, 20(15): 1931-1954.
[23]	李兴荣, 胡非, 舒文军, 等. 北京秋季城市热岛效应及其气象影响因子[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2008, 13(3): 291-299. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2008.03.07
	[Li Xiongrong, Hu Fei, Shu Wenjun et al. Characteristics of urban heat island effect and its meteorological influencing factors over Beijing in autumn. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2008, 13(3): 291-299.] doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2008.03.07
[24]	Liu W, Ji C, Zhong J et al. Temporal characteristics of the Beijing urban heat island[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2007, 87(1-4): 213-221. doi: 10.1007/s00704-005-0192-6
[25]	You Q, Jiang Z, Kong L et al. A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2017, 48(11-12): 3975-3989. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3315-0
[26]	Li Q, Dong W.Detection and adjustment of undocumented discontinuities in Chinese temperature series using a composite approach[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 26(1): 143-153. doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-0143-8
[27]	Li Q, Liu X, Zhang H.Detecting and adjusting temporal inhomogeneity in Chinese mean surface air temperature data[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2004, 21(2): 260-268. doi: 10.1007/BF02915712
[28]	宋艳玲, 张尚印. 北京市近40年城市热岛效应研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2003, 11(4): 126-129.
	[Song Yanling, Zhang Shangyin.The study on heat island effect in Beijing during last 40 year. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2003, 11(4): 126-129.]
[29]	Founda D, Pierros F, Petrakis M et al. Interdecadal variations and trends of the Urban Heat Island in Athens (Greece) and its response to heat waves[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2015, 161: 1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.016
[30]	Kim Y H, Baik J J.Daily maximum urban heat island intensity in large cities of Korea[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2004, 79(3-4): 151-164. doi: 10.1007/s00704-004-0070-7
[31]	Kimura F, Takahashi S.The effects of land-use and anthropogenic heating on the surface temperature in the Tokyo Metropolitan area: A numerical experiment[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1991, 25(2): 155-164. doi: 10.1016/0957-1272(91)90050-O
[32]	Yamashita S.Detailed structure of heat island phenomena from moving observations from electric tram-cars in Metropolitan Tokyo[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1996, 30(3): 429-435. doi: 10.1016/1352-2310(95)00010-0
[33]	Gedzelman S D, Austin S, Cermak R et al. Mesoscale aspects of the Urban Heat Island around New York City[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2003, 75(1-2): 29-42. doi: 10.1007/s00704-002-0724-2
[34]	彭保发, 石忆邵, 王贺封, 等. 城市热岛效应的影响机理及其作用规律——以上海市为例[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(11): 1461-1471. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201311002
	[Peng Baofa, Shi Yishao, Wang Hefeng et al. The impacting mechanism and laws of function of urban heat islands effect: A case study of Shanghai. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(11): 1461-1471.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201311002
[35]	Morris C J G, Simmonds I, Plummer N. Quantification of the influences of wind and cloud on the nocturnal urban heat island of a large City[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2001, 40(2): 169-182. doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(2001)0402.0.CO;2
[36]	Wild M. Global dimming and brightening: A review[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2009, 114(D10):D00D16.
[37]	Yang Y H, Zhao N, Hao X H et al. Decreasing trend of sunshine hours and related driving forces in North China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2009, 97(1-2): 91-98. doi: 10.1007/s00704-008-0049-x
[38]	Vautard R, Cattiaux J, Yiou P et al. Northern hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3(11):756-761. doi: 10.1038/ngeo979
[39]	Xu M, Chang C P, Fu Cet al. Steady decline of east Asian monsoon winds, 1969-2000: Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2006, 111(D24):doi:10.1029/2006JD007337. doi: 10.1029/2006JD007337
[40]	李双双, 杨赛霓, 张东海, 等. 近54年京津冀地区热浪时空变化特征及影响因素[J].应用气象学报, 2015(5): 545-554. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150504
	[Li Shuangshuang, Yang Saini, Zhang Donghai et al.Patiotemporal variability of heat waves in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and influencing factors in recent 54 years. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2015(5): 545-554.] doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150504

		降水	日照时数	平均风速	最大风速	平均气温	最高气温	最低气温	平均相对湿度	平均气压
平均温热岛强度	r²	0.001	0.287	0.521	0.572	0.591	0.323	0.689	0.725	0.172
平均温热岛强度	P	0.824	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.003
最高温热岛强度	r²	0.047	0.030	0.077	0.008	0.027	0.023	0.032	0.197	0.375
最高温热岛强度	P	0.129	0.244	0.052	0.542	0.259	0.292	0.215	0.001	0.000
最低温热岛强度	r²	0.001	0.310	0.484	0.569	0.579	0.303	0.690	0.703	0.139
最低温热岛强度	P	0.859	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.008