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地理科学    2018, Vol. 38 Issue (10): 1724-1730     DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.017
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气候变化对中国集中供暖气候指标的影响
郭军1(),熊明明1,李明财1,何群2
1.天津市气候中心,天津 300074
2.云南省气候中心,云南 昆明 650034
The Impact of Climate Change on the Climate Index of Heating in China
Jun Guo1(),Mingming Xiong1,Mingcai Li1,Qun He2
1. Tianjin Climate Center, Tianjin 300074,China
2. Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034, Yunnan,China
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摘要 

应用高空间分辨率的网格逐日气象数据,根据国家集中供暖有关设计规范定义了集中供暖气候指标,分析了气候变暖对中国集中供暖气候指标的影响。结果表明:近55 a来中国集中供暖初日均呈后延趋势,初日特征线年代际南北移动较小。供暖终日均呈提前趋势,终日特征线在110°E以东地区南北移动较大,2000年以来终日特征线较20世纪60年代北抬了200~300 km。供暖期长度均呈减少趋势,东北、华北地区近55 a减少了10~15 d,西北地区减少了15~20 d;东北、华北、西北地区供暖强度分别减少了12%、20%、15%。从1991~2015年冬季气温变化来看,东北地区最冷冬季与最暖冬季的温度相差可达6.2℃,对供暖强度的影响可达28.9%,华北和西北地区冬季气温最大变幅分别为3.7℃、3.3℃,对供暖强度的影响分别为26.8%和17.6%。气候变暖对中国集中供热气候指标产生了显著的影响。供热部门应该根据天气变化来安排供暖,同时还要注意气候变暖背景下极端冷事件的发生,保证集中供暖安全运行。

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郭军
熊明明
李明财
何群
关键词 集中供暖供暖气候指标供暖强度气候变暖 
Abstract

The IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) showed that the global temperature tended to increase in future. Meanwhile, the range of warming in China is higher than that of the global average temperature. It is very significant that understanding the impact of climate change on central heating in China which can provide decision-making advice to supply heating, save energy and reduce air pollution during the supplying heating period. This paper firstly defined the climate index of central heating according to National Central Heating Design Specification, then analyzed the impact of climate warming on climate index of central heating in China based on daily grid meteorological data with high space resolution. The result showed that: 1) The beginning day of central heating tended to delay during the past 55 years in China. The decadal shift of the characteristic line for beginning day from south to north changed very little. 2) The final day of central heating tended to shift to an earlier date. The characteristic line of final day moved obviously from south to north in the east of 110oE which was 200-300 km higher than that in 1960s since 2000. 3) The length of supplying heating period tended to shorten. The length decreased by 10-15 d in the Northeast and North China and that decreased by 15-20 d in Northwest China. 4) The intensity of suppling heating tended to reduce obviously. The intensity decreased by 12%, 20% and 15% for Northeast, North and Northwest China respectively. The intensity was related to winter average temperature closely. According to the variation of winter temperature from 1991 to 2015, the temperature difference (TD) between the coldest and the warmest winter could reach 6.2℃ in Northeast China which accounted for 28.9% impact on intensity of supplying heating; the TD was 3.7℃ and 3.3℃ for North and Northwest China respectively, which accounted for 26.8% and 17.6% impact on the intensity respectively. Climate warming has a significant impact on the climate index of central heating in China. The relative departments should arrange the supplying heating schedule according to weather variation, meanwhile, pay attention to the occurrence of extreme cold events under the background of climate warming to ensure the central heating operate safely.

Key wordscentral heating    heating climate index    heating intensity    climate warming
收稿日期: 2017-09-25      出版日期: 2018-12-14
基金资助:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201614)资助
引用本文:   
郭军, 熊明明, 李明财等 . 气候变化对中国集中供暖气候指标的影响[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1724-1730.
Jun Guo, Mingming Xiong, Mingcai Li et al . The Impact of Climate Change on the Climate Index of Heating in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(10): 1724-1730.
链接本文:  
http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.017      或      http://geoscien.neigae.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V38/I10/1724
Fig.1  1961~2015年集中供暖期长度气候变化趋势
Fig.2  1961~2015年东北、华北、西北地区平均集中供暖初日变化
Fig.3  1961~2015年集中供热初日气候变化趋势和初日特征线逐年代位置
Fig.4  1961~2015年东北、华北、西北地区平均集中供暖终日变化
Fig.5  1961~2015年集中供暖终日气候变化趋势和终日特征线逐年代位置
Fig.6  1961~2015年度东北、华北、西北地区供暖度日变化
东北地区 华北地区 西北地区
指标 月平均气温 冬季平均
气温
月平均气温 冬季平均
气温
月平均气温 冬季平均
气温
供暖初日 0.63 0.37 0.53 0.38 0.78 0.42
供暖终日 -0.75 -0.28 -0.60 -0.17 -0.75 -0.15
供暖强度 / -0.90 / -0.93 / -0.87
Table 1  不同区域供暖气候指标与气温的相关系数
指标 东北地区 华北地区 西北地区
供暖初日 Y=1.8T10+278.2 Y=1.4T11+301.7 Y=2.6T10+273.2
供暖终日 Y=-1.9T4+122 Y=-1.5T3+97.7 Y=-2.0T4+123.5
供暖强度 Y=-133.6TDJF+
583.7
Y=-110.3TDJF+
629.8
Y=-120.6TDJF+
932.0
Table 2  不同区域供暖气候指标与气温的关系
最高平均气温 最低平均气温
地区 10月 11月 冬季 3月 4月 10月 11月 冬季 3月 4月
东北地区 6.5 -4.2 -13.6 -0.7 8.2 1.9 -11.2 -19.8 -9.2 1.8
华北地区 11.6 2.0 -5.3 4.3 12.5 6.5 -3.3 -9.0 -0.5 6.0
西北地区 5.8 -1.7 -9.0 1.7 7.6 2.1 -5.9 -12.3 -4.3 3.9
Table 3  1991/1992~2015/2016年度冬半年最高、最低平均气温(℃)
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