中国小城镇产业结构特征及影响因素研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.004

地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 1769-1776.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.004

中国小城镇产业结构特征及影响因素研究

李国平¹(), 席强敏², 吴爱芝³, 孙瑀⁴

1.北京大学政府管理学院,北京 100871
2.南开大学中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心,天津 300071
3. 北京大学图书馆,北京 100871
4.东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连 116025

收稿日期:2017-11-27 修回日期:2018-03-02 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-20
作者简介:
作者简介：李国平（1961-）,男,黑龙江拜泉人,教授,博导,主要从事经济地理、区域经济、城市与区域规划研究。E-mail：lgp@pku.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41671120,41401125）、国家社会科学基金项目（15CJY055）资助

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Structure of Small Towns in China

Guoping Li¹(), Qiangmin Xi², Aizhi Wu³, Yu Sun⁴

1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2. Collaborative Innovation Center for China Economy, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
3. Library, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
4. School of Public Administration, Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian 116025, Liaoning, China;

Received:2017-11-27 Revised:2018-03-02 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671120,41401125), National Social Science Foundation of China (15CJY055).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

分析揭示了2015年中国小城镇产业结构特征与空间差异,并利用加权最小二乘法实证估计了中国小城镇非农产业占比的影响因素。研究得出中国小城镇非农产业占比呈正态分布,非农产业占比较高的区域主要集中在东部沿海、长江经济带和边境口岸地区。东部地区小城镇非农产业占比呈负偏态分布,中部地区呈正态分布,而西部和东北地区则呈现正偏态分布特征,产业结构相对落后。小城镇规模、所在县域经济发展水平与小城镇非农产业占比显著正相关。县域第二产业占比提高带来的拉动效应略高于第三产业,小城镇产业更多的是为县域第二产业发展提供配套支撑。地级城市（地区、自治州、盟）规模的扩大对辖区内小城镇产业结构升级产生的扩散效应强于虹吸效应。

关键词: 小城镇, 产业结构, 非农产业, 加权最小二乘法

Abstract:

As a hub connecting rural with urban areas, industrial structure optimization of small towns is significant to the local urbanization of farmers and to prevent the excessive concentration of population in big cities, and is also one of China's new urbanization problems in reality. This article reveals distribution characteristics and spatial differences of industrial structure of small towns in China in 2015, and puts forth influencing factors of proportions of non-agricultural industries of small towns in China by weighted least squares method. It is concluded that rates of non-agricultural industries have a normal distribution in small towns of China, and towns with higher rate of non-agricultural industries are mainly concentrated in China’s eastern coastal areas, the Yangtze Economic Belt and frontier port areas. The proportion of non-agricultural industries of small towns in the eastern region has a negative skewness distribution, and that in the central region has a normal distribution, while that in western and northeast regions have positive skewness distributions whose industrial structure is relatively backward. Shares of non-agricultural industries of small towns are positively correlated with size of small towns and country economic development level. The secondary industry in the county area has a slightly stronger driving effect than tertiary industry, and small towns always provide supporting services for the development of secondary industry in its county area. The diffusion effect of the expansion of prefecture-level cities (regions, autonomous prefectures and league) is stronger than its siphoning effect on the industrial structure upgrading of small towns.

Key words: small town, industrial structure, non-agricultural industry, weighted least square method

中图分类号:

K902

李国平, 席强敏, 吴爱芝, 孙瑀. 中国小城镇产业结构特征及影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11): 1769-1776.

Guoping Li, Qiangmin Xi, Aizhi Wu, Yu Sun. Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Structure of Small Towns in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(11): 1769-1776.

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变量	含义	数据来源
Nonagri	县域小城镇非农产业占比	中国县域统计年鉴（乡镇卷）
Lntpop	县域小城镇人口的自然对数值	中国县域统计年鉴（乡镇卷）
Lndgdp	所属县GDP的自然对数值	中国县域统计年鉴（县市卷）
Dserp	所属县第三产业占比	中国县域统计年鉴（县市卷）
Dindp	所属县第二产业占比	中国县域统计年鉴（县市卷）
Dgov	所属县公共财政支出占GDP的比重	中国县域统计年鉴（县市卷）
Lndedu	所属县普通中学和中等职业教育学校在校学生数的自然对数值	中国县域统计年鉴（县市卷）
Lndhos	所属县医疗卫生机构床位数的自然对数值	中国县域统计年鉴（县市卷）
Lncpop	所属地级城市（地区、自治州、盟）2010年常住人口规模	第六次全国人口普查数据

	OLS估计				WLS估计
	系数	t	VIF	容忍度	系数	t
Lntpop	0.0349^***	5.46	1.51	0.66	0.0426^***	7.87
Lndgdp	0.0490^***	4.55	5.48	0.182	0.0510^***	4.86
Dserp	0.254^***	4.06	1.99	0.502	0.288^***	4.88
Dindp	0.269^***	5.33	2.63	0.38	0.301^***	6.41
Dgov	0.0849^**	2.14	2.61	0.384	0.0976^***	2.63
Lndedu	-0.0225^**	-2.30	3.54	0.283	-0.0198^**	-2.09
Lndhos	-0.0118	-0.99	4.49	0.223	-0.0199^*	-1.74
Lncpop	0.0390^***	6.35	1.30	0.768	0.0401^***	7.27
常数	-1.129^***	-8.28			-1.266^***	-9.73
White 检验[Chi²(44)]	174.78^***
多重共线性检验	2.94
样本数	1663				1663
F	34.48^***				45.59^***
R²	0.170				0.181

	东部	中部	西部	东北
Lntpop	0.0508^***	0.0235	0.0407^***	-0.00193
	(5.24)	(1.31)	(4.81)	(-0.06)
Lndgdp	0.0235	0.0771^***	0.0538^***	0.0621^*
	(1.10)	(3.65)	(3.31)	(1.73)
Dserp	0.172	0.616^***	0.190^**	0.273
	(1.45)	(5.05)	(2.12)	(1.14)
Dindp	0.0883	0.687^***	0.248^***	0.349^**
	(0.92)	(7.15)	(3.45)	(2.14)
Dgov	-0.0147	0.141^**	0.135^**	0.111
	(-0.19)	(2.03)	(2.42)	(0.71)
Lndedu	-0.0151	-0.0225	-0.0104	-0.0142
	(-0.79)	(-1.15)	(-0.70)	(-0.39)
Lndhos	-0.0102	-0.0238	-0.0204	-0.00232
	(-0.41)	(-1.05)	(-1.22)	(-0.06)
Lncpop	0.0454^***	0.0330^***	0.0329^***	0.0620^**
	(4.28)	(3.14)	(3.64)	(2.57)
常数	-1.011^***	-1.542^***	-1.216^***	-1.394^***
	(-3.73)	(-6.00)	(-6.09)	(-2.73)
样本数	473	348	711	131
F	11.08^***	23.37^***	16.81^***	4.7^***
R²	0.160	0.355	0.161	0.236

中国小城镇产业结构特征及影响因素研究

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Structure of Small Towns in China

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