地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 1777-1787.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.005

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中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口增长的边际特征时空变化

司增绰1(), 周坤1, 仇方道2(), 邵军3   

  1. 1.江苏师范大学商学院,江苏 徐州 221116
    2.江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏 徐州 221116
    3.东南大学经济管理学院,江苏 南京 211189
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-12 修回日期:2018-01-12 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:司增绰(1972-),男,江苏丰县人,教授,博士,主要从事产业与贸易研究。E-mail: szc-xz@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金项目(13BJL078,14CJL020)、国家自然科学基金项目(41671123)资助

The Temporal and Spatial Variation of Margin Characteristics of China's Export Growth to Countries Along the Belt and Road

Zengchuo Si1(), Kun Zhou1, Fangdao Qiu2(), Jun Shao3   

  1. 1.Commerce School, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China
    2. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China
    3. School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, Jiangsu, China
  • Received:2017-11-12 Revised:2018-01-12 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China (13BJL078, 14CJL020), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41671123)

摘要:

基于CEPII BACI数据库提供的1995~2015年HS-92-6位数国际贸易数据,利用H-K三元边际框架分析了中国对“一带一路”沿线国家各类产品出口增长的边际特征。研究结果表明: 中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口各类产品的种类扩张主要发生于1995~2001年与2001~2008年两个时段; 在后金融危机时段,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家各类产品出口增长模式主要表现为数量扩张为主,价格扩张为辅,而出口产品的种类扩张则不明显;区域性视角下的数量扩张更显著,而国别性视角下的种类扩张与价格扩张更显著;动态演进上,无论从区域视角还是从国别视角来看,不同产品部门的边际特征均呈现出较大的差异,中国出口价格边际极化现象较为显著。总体而言,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家产品出口的增长模式在国别层面与区域层面表现出较大的异质性,不同种类产品具有不同的出口增长模式,同一种类产品在不同时段也呈现出不同的出口增长模式。此外,我们发现考察期内中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口增长模式正在发生显著变化,其中出口的广度增长效应正逐渐被数量增长与价格增长效应所取代。

关键词: 一带一路, 三元边际, 核密度估计, 出口增长, 中国

Abstract:

Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward, the marginal analysis of trade growth between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" has gradually become a hot topic in the academic research. But in fact, a detailed classification of China's exports of various types of products exported to countries along the "Belt and Road" is the key to understanding China's export growth patterns. In the article, based on the international trade data of HS-92-6 from 1995 to 2015 provided by the CEPII BACI database, we respectively examined the ternary margins of China's manufacturing exports to the 7 major regional along the "Belt and Road" and China's manufacturing exports to the top 10 trading partners along the "Belt and Road" by using a detailed classification from a regional perspective and a country perspective. Certainly, we also use the nuclear density estimation technique to analyze the dynamic evolution of ternary margins of China's export. The results show that: Firstly, no mater whether it is from a regional perspective or a country perspective, China's expansion of various types of products exported to countries along the "Belt and Road" mainly occurred in 1995-2001 and 2001-2008. Secondly, in the post-financial crisis period, China's export growth patterns of various types of products exported to countries along the "Belt and Road" was mainly characterized by quantitative expansion, supplemented by price expansion, and the category expansion was no longer obvious. Thirdly, the quantitative expansion is more significant from a regional perspective, while the category expansion and price expansion are more significant from a national perspective. In fact, we find that, in terms of manufacturing exports, price growth is the core of China’s export growth to countries along the "Belt and Road", and the relative prices of Chinese manufacturing exports have generally surpassed the world average during the post-financial crisis, even when exporting to developed countries like Japan, the price growth rate also showed a relatively strong trend. Finally, in the dynamic evolution, no mater whether it is from a regional perspective or a country perspective, the marginal characteristics of different product sectors show great differences. The polarization of price margin of China's export is more significant. In general, China's export growth patterns to countries along the "Belt and Road" shows a large heterogeneity at the national and regional levels. Different types of products have different export growth patterns, even the same type of products also have different export growth patterns at different times. In addition, we find that China's export growth patterns to countries along the "Belt and Road" is undergoing significant changes during the inspection period. In particular, the breadth-growth effect of exports is gradually being replaced by the effects of quantitative growth and price growth.

Key words: the Belt and Road, ternary margin, nuclear density estimation, export growth, China

中图分类号: 

  • F746.12