基于人口变化的东莞城镇增长与收缩特征和机制研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.011

地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 1837-1846.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.011

所属专题：人口与城市研究

基于人口变化的东莞城镇增长与收缩特征和机制研究

杜志威^1,²(), 李郇³()

1. 广州地理研究所,广东广州 510070
2. 广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广东广州 510070
3.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州 510275

收稿日期:2017-11-12 修回日期:2018-01-08 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-20
作者简介:
作者简介：杜志威（1987-）,男,广东广州人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事城市与区域发展和规划。E-mail: chiwai_do@foxmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41571118, 41801122）、广东省科学院实施创新驱动发展能力建设专项（2016GDASRC-0101, 2018GDASCX-0901）资助

Characteristic and Mechanism of Urban Growth and Shrinkage from Demographic Change Perspective: A Case Study of Dongguan

Zhiwei Du^1,²(), Xun Li³()

1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China
2. Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China
3. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China

Received:2017-11-12 Revised:2018-01-08 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571118, 41801122), GDAS' Special Project of Science and Technology Development (2016GDASRC-0101, 2018GDASCX-0901)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于人口变化的视角,考察东莞城镇人口增长与收缩所出现的结构性变化,分析金融危机前后东莞城镇人口在规模数量、年龄结构、性别结构、学历结构,以及不同类型增长城镇与收缩城镇的产业经济和空间格局特征,并建立面板回归模型探讨影响城镇人口增长与收缩的因素和机制。研究表明,东莞总人口规模趋于波动增长的同时,人口结构呈现出外来人口市民化加快、男女性别失衡加剧、人口年轻化与高学历化的转变;增长类型城镇产业结构以先进制造业和现代服务业为主,而收缩类型城镇则面临传统加工制造业的转型升级问题;空间上呈现“北增长-南收缩”的格局,形成了中部增长、西北部和东南部收缩的城镇集中片区;而宏观经济波动、产业转型升级、科技创新投入、地方发展方式影响着东莞城镇人口的增长与收缩。

关键词: 收缩城市, 人口结构, 珠江三角洲, 东莞

Abstract:

After the financial crisis in 2008, a new phenomenon “shrinkage” has appeared in Dongguan’s urban area, which manifested population size reducing in its towns. Although the economic recovery rapidly in the post-crisis period, the spatial separation of population growth and shrinkage is aggravating, accompanied by a series of changes in the demographic structure. Base on the perspective of demographic change, this article makes an in-depth analysis of the growth and shrinkage in Dongguan by using the Social Security Registration data. We summarize the characteristic of demographic changes in the size, age, gender and education after the financial crisis, and industrial economic structure of different towns. Moreover, we construct a panel regression model for exploring the factors and mechanisms that affect urban population growth and shrinkage. The result shows: 1) While the population size of Dongguan tends to growing in fluctuation, the population structure shows trends for migrant population localization, male and female more imbalance, younger and highly educated population. 2) Advanced manufacturing and modern service industries to promote city growing, and outward processing and manufacturing transformation failure will affect the city shrinking. 3) The spatial distribution shows the "growing in the north, shrinking in the south", forming a concentrated area where the central area growing, the northwest area and the southeastern area are shrinking. 4) Macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial transformation, technological innovation inputs and local development pathway have significant impacts on demographic growth and shrinkage in Dongguan.

Key words: shrinking city, demographic structure, the Pearl River Delta, Dongguan

中图分类号:

F129.9

杜志威, 李郇. 基于人口变化的东莞城镇增长与收缩特征和机制研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11): 1837-1846.

Zhiwei Du, Xun Li. Characteristic and Mechanism of Urban Growth and Shrinkage from Demographic Change Perspective: A Case Study of Dongguan[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(11): 1837-1846.

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	全部城镇样本	增长城镇样本	收缩城镇样本
Manu	0.619^***(7.25)	不显著	0.756^***(11.36)
Serv	0.705^***(10.44)	0.841^***(8.71)	0.356^***(6.82)
Inves	-0.275^***(-4.27)	-0.294^**(-3.06)	不显著
FDI	0.215^***(5.07)	0.484^***(9.33)	不显著
Finan	-0.415^***(-4.72)	-0.512^***(-4.25)	不显著
RD	-0.124^***(-5.53)	不显著	-0.115^***(-6.26)
常数	1.801^**(0.58)	5.870^***(8.45)	-1.601(-4.21)
N	231	126	105
adj.R²	0.749	0.938	0.651
F	111.64	513.07	56.56

基于人口变化的东莞城镇增长与收缩特征和机制研究

Characteristic and Mechanism of Urban Growth and Shrinkage from Demographic Change Perspective: A Case Study of Dongguan

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