东北地区可持续生计安全时空分异格局及障碍因子诊断

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着“新东北现象”的出现,东北地区转型与可持续发展问题突显,可持续生计安全亟待提升。以2003~2015年东北地区37个地级市为例,基于可持续生计安全框架构建可持续生计安全评价体系,采用灰色关联TOPSIS模型对东北地区可持续生计安全进行综合测度,并运用空间自相关、地理探测器和障碍度模型等方法探讨其时空格局演变规律、空间分异成因和障碍因素。结果表明：① 东北地区可持续生计安全指数总体偏低,整体上空间分异特征明显,但随时间推移,区域间差异逐渐缩小。② 空间集聚性特征显著,热点区和次热点区分布主要呈现哈长地区和沈大沿线地区两大组团,次冷点区和冷点区呈边缘式分布于内蒙古东部、黑龙江北部、吉林南部等经济落后地区。③ 工业化水平、经济总量、工资收入、二氧化硫排放强度和投资强度等是影响东北地区可持续生计安全的主要因素。④ 资源环境支撑力和经济生产力是制约东北地区可持续生计安全提升的两大短板;空间阻力模式以“经济效率>生态安全>社会公平”类型占主导。最后,提出应将政策与制度因素纳入可持续生计安全框架。

关键词: 可持续生计安全, 空间阻力模型, 东北地区

Abstract:

With the emergence of new ‘The Northeast China Phenomenon’, the transformation and sustainable development of the Northeast China were highlighted, and sustainable livelihood security needed to be improved urgently. Based on the framework of sustainable livelihood security analysis, the study constructed a evaluation system of sustainable livelihood security including 27 indicators in Northeast China by taking the 37 prefecture level cities of the Northeast China as the research object from 2003 to 2015. By using GRA-TOPSIS model, the study had a comprehensive measure of sustainable livelihoods security in the Northeast China. Based on spatial autocorrelation method, geographical detector and obstacle degree model, the study not only revealed spatio-temporal evolution of sustainable livelihood security, but also analyzed the causes of spatial differentiation and the diagnosis of obstacle factors in the Northeast China since 2003. The result showed that: 1) Sustainable livelihood security index (SLSI) in the Northeast China was on the low level as a whole, and the characteristics of spatial differentiation were obvious, but its regional difference reduced gradually in recent years. 2) The spatial agglomeration of sustainable livelihoods security in the Northeast China presented significantly, and the hot spots and sub hot spots showed the main area including the Shenyang-Dalian and Harbin-Changchun groups; the sub cold area and cold area were marginally distributed in less-developed areas, including the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the northern Heilongjiang Province and the southern Jilin Province. 3) Industrialization level, economic output, wage, emission intensity of sulfur dioxide and investment intensity are the main influencing factors of sustainable livelihood security in Northeast china. 4) The supporting capacity of resources and environment and economic productivity are the two short boards restricting the sustainable livelihood security improvement in Northeast China, and the most dominant type of economic efficiency is the most widely distributed area. Finally, this study put forward the factors of regional policy and system into the framework of sustainable livelihood security analysis.

Key words: sustainable livelihood security, spatial resistance model, Northeast China

中图分类号:

K901

周宏浩, 陈晓红. 东北地区可持续生计安全时空分异格局及障碍因子诊断[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11): 1864-1874.

Honghao Zhou, Xiaohong Chen. Spatio-temporal Evolution of Sustainable Livelihood Security and Study of Its Obstacle Indicators in Northeast China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(11): 1864-1874.

图/表 9

表1

东北地区可持续生计安全评价指标体系"

目标层	子目标层	准则层	指标层	指标单位及性质	指标含义
可持续生计安全（A₁）	经济效率	经济生产力	人均地区生产总值（D₁）	元/人（+）	经济总量
	（B₁）	（C₁）	地区生产总值增长率（D₂）	%（+）	经济发展速度
			第三产业占GDP比重（D₃）	%（+）	经济结构
			规模以上工业总产值（D₄）	万元（+）	工业化水平
			单位面积粮食产量（D₅）	kg/hm²（+）	粮食安全
		经济吸引力	人均固定资产投资（D₆）	元/人（+）	投资强度
		（C₂）	人均社会消费品零售总额（D₇）	元/人（+）	消费能力
			科学教育支出占财政比重（D₈）	%（+）	科学教育投入
			地区生产总值/建设用地面积（D₉）	元/m²/（+）	土地产出效率
	生态安全	生态承载力	人口密度（D₁₀）	人/km²（-）	人口压力
	（B₂）	（C₃）	人均农作物总播种面积（D₁₁）	hm²/人（+）	农作物资源
			农用化肥施用强度（D₁₂）	t/人（-）	农业污染程度
			建成区绿化覆盖率（D₁₃）	%（+）	绿化程度
		资源环境支	地区生产总值/供水总量（D₁₄）	元/t（+）	水资源利用效率
		撑力（C₄）	人均供气总量（D₁₅）	m³/万人（+）	天然气资源供给
			单位产值废水排放量（D₁₆）	10⁴t/元（-）	废水排放强度
			单位产值二氧化硫排放量（D₁₇）	t/元（-）	二氧化硫排放强度
			工业固体废物综合利用率（D₁₈）	%（+）	废物综合利用
	社会公平	社会发展活力	道路密度（D₁₉）	km/km²（+）	基础设施建设
	（B₃）	（C₅）	职工平均工资（D₂₀）	元（+）	工资收入
			第三产业从业人员比重（D₂₁）	%（+）	就业结构
			城乡收入比（D₂₂）	\（-）	城乡差异
		风险抵御能力	万人医院卫生院床位数（D₂₃）	张/万人（+）	医疗保障
		（C₆）	城镇居民人均可支配收入（D₂₄）	元（+）	城镇居民生活水平
			农村居民人均纯收入（D₂₅）	元（+）	农村居民生活水平
			社会保障支出占财政比重（D₂₆）	%（+）	社会保障投入
			人均城乡居民储蓄年末余额（D₂₇）	元/人（+）	金融资本

表1

表2

图1

表3

图2

表4

图3

表5

图4

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统计量	2003年	2007年	2011年	2015年
平均值	0.427	0.430	0.434	0.445
标准差	0.076	0.075	0.065	0.063
变异系数	0.178	0.175	0.150	0.142
偏态系数	1.467	1.396	1.352	1.393
峰态系数	1.233	1.461	2.072	1.731

Moran's I指数及统计量	2003年	2007年	2011年	2015年
Moran's I	0.134	0.187	0.179	0.128
Z-score	2.208	2.936	2.862	2.141
P-value	0.027	0.003	0.004	0.032

年份	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2003年	D₉(0.88)	D₄(0.88)	D₂₀(0.78)	D₁(0.77)	D₁₇(0.75)	D₇(0.75)	D₆(0.74)	D₂₇(0.67)	D₂₄(0.62)	D₁₉(0.51)
2007年	D₄(0.84)	D₇(0.83)	D₉(0.79)	D₂₄(0.78)	D₁₇(0.77)	D₂₇(0.76)	D₁(0.75)	D₆(0.72)	D₂₀(0.67)	D₁₉(0.59)
2011年	D₄(0.83)	D₇(0.77)	D₁₇(0.69)	D₂₀(0.67)	D₁₉(0.64)	D₂₄(0.63)	D₉(0.60)	D₆(0.57)	D₂₇(0.56)	D₁₅(0.55)
2015年	D₄(0.87)	D₁(0.81)	D₇(0.78)	D₂₄(0.78)	D₂₀(0.71)	D₁₉(0.63)	D₆(0.62)	D₁₇(0.60)	D₂₇(0.48)	D₉(0.45)

年份	经济生产力	经济吸引力	生态承载力	资源环境支撑力	社会发展活力	风险抵御力
2003年	21.98	18.55	8.80	26.89	9.10	14.69
2007年	22.88	17.63	9.03	27.25	9.24	13.97
2011年	22.74	17.12	9.10	28.00	8.45	14.59
2015年	21.94	18.34	9.00	27.84	9.18	13.69