山东半岛城市群经济联系空间格局演变研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于产业互补性、综合经济质量、经济距离等多角度修正传统引力模型,运用社会网络分析法,对2006~2015年山东半岛城市群17市经济联系空间格局演变特征进行可视化分析。结果表明：① 城市群经济联系强度缓慢增长,经济联系方向逐渐多样化,整体网络逐渐密集;② 城市群网络中心性水平始终偏低,点入点出度差距增大;③ 部分子群构成与行政区划分布不耦合,以济南、青岛为核心的两大经济圈间缺乏资源互通和产业交流。④ 交通技术创新、产业结构变动、要素资源流动是山东半岛城市群经济联系空间格局演变的主要影响因素。

关键词: 山东半岛城市群, 经济联系, 空间格局, 社会网络分析, 演变

Abstract:

The research analyzes spatial pattern evolution of urban agglomeration economic links mainly by means of social network analysis, based on the strength characteristics of economic links using the strength matrix constructed by modified gravity model. The model is mainly corrected from three dimensions: the complementary between different industries, comprehensive economic quality and economical distance which considers both time and economy cost. The research, taking 17 cities in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as study objects, reveals the spatial pattern evolution of economic links from 2006 to 2015 with the help of ArcGIS 10.2 and Ucinet 6.0 which can manipulate data and render images. The results are shown as follows: 1) The overall strength of economic interaction grows slowly despite of its low level and the directions of economic linkage between different cities vary a lot, which contributes to a more dense network; 2) The level of overall centricity degree grows slowly, which indicates a low liquidity of resources among cities in urban agglomeration. Moreover, the disparity between indegree and outdegree gets more and more obvious; 3) The members of urban subgroups is usually unstable and some of the subgroups are uncoupled with the distribution of administrative districts, which lead to a low economic level of some cities; 4) Jinan and Qingdao become the core cities of two different economic circles in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, whereas the communications of resources and energies and industry connections between the two city subgroups is scanty. At last, through the study of influencing factors we found that innovations of transportation technology, changes of industrial structure and flows of essential resources become the main factors for the evolution of spatial pattern of economic linkage in this urban agglomeration.

Key words: Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, economic ties, spatial pattern, social network analysis, evolution

中图分类号:

F129.9

于谨凯, 马健秋. 山东半岛城市群经济联系空间格局演变研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11): 1875-1882.

Jinkai Yu, Jianqiu Ma. Spatial Pattern Evolution of Economic Links in Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(11): 1875-1882.

图/表 6

表1

城市综合经济质量评价指标体系"

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
经济总体质量F1	经济总量	地区生产总值 $X 1$ （亿元）、城镇固定资产投资完成额 $X 2$ （万元）
	人均水平	人均地区生产总值 $X 3$ （元）、城镇居民人均可支配收入 $X 4$ （元）
	产业结构	第三产业增加值占GDP比重 $X 5$ （%）、第三产业产值占地区生产总值比重 $X 6$ （%）
经济发展潜力F2	基础设施	客运总量 $X 7$ （万人）、货运总量 $X 8$ （万t）、邮电业务总量 $X 9$ （亿元）、人均拥有道路面积 $X 10$ （m²）
经济发展潜力F2	科技教育	科学技术支出 $X 11$ （万元）、教育支出 $X 12$ （万元）
经济开放程度F3	旅游开放	入境旅游外汇收入 $X 13$ （亿元）
经济开放程度F3	外资利用	实际利用外资 $X 14$ （万美元）
城市规模F4	人口规模	人口总数 $X 15$ （万人）、城镇人口 $X 16$ （万人）
城市规模F4	面积规模	城市面积 $X 17$ （km²）、建设用地面积 $X 18$ （km²）

表1

图1

图2

表2

表3

表4

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影响因素	影响因子	QAP相关分析结果
影响因素	影响因子	相关系数	显著性水平	标准差	Prop≥0	Prop ≤0
交通技术创新	高铁动车班次	0.216	0.028	0.120	0.028	0.973
	时间成本	-0.044	0.356	0.081	0.644	0.356
	高速公路里程	0.159	0.131	0.133	0.131	0.870
产业结构变动	二、三产业增加值	0.170	0.076	0.108	0.076	0.964
产业结构变动	二、三产业就业人数	0.167	0.050	0.099	0.058	0.970
要素资源流动	社会消费品零售总额	0.178	0.046	0.118	0.069	0.931
要素资源流动	固定资产投资完成额	0.075	0.315	0.142	0.315	0.685