增温增湿环境下天山山区降雪量变化

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.021

地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 1933-1942.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.021

• • 上一篇

增温增湿环境下天山山区降雪量变化

邓海军^1,^2,^4,⁵(), 陈亚宁², 陈忠升³

1.福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福建福州 350007
2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
3.西华师范大学国土资源学院,四川南充 637002
4.湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福建福州 350007
5.福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州 350007

收稿日期:2017-11-20 修回日期:2018-03-12 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-20
作者简介:
作者简介：邓海军(1987-),男,湖南隆回人,博士,讲师,主要从事山区气候水文过程及流域水循环研究。E-mail: denghj@fjnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目 (41807159)资助

Changes of Snowfall Under Warmer and Wetter in the Tianshan Mountains

Haijun Deng^1,^2,^4,⁵(), Yaning Chen², Zhongsheng Chen³

1.College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, hina
3. College of Land and Resources, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, Sichuan, China
4. Fujian Provincial ngineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian, China
5. State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Humid Subtropical Mountain Ecology, Fuzhou 350007, Fujian, China

Received:2017-11-20 Revised:2018-03-12 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41807159)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于APHRO’s气温和降水数据集,运用气温阈值模型,分析了1961~2015年间天山山区降雪量变化特征。研究表明,自1961年以来,天山山区升温趋势显著,速率为0.027℃/a,且冬半年的升温速度大于夏半年。同时,3 000 m海拔以上区域的平均气温上升到0℃左右。冬季降水的增加速率为0.42 mm/a（P<0.01）,春季和夏季的降水量呈减少趋势。降雪量变化时空差异显著,3 000 m海拔以上区域降雪随气温的升高而增加,而3 000 m以下区域降雪随气温的升高而减少。最大降雪量气温是控制降雪变化的关键因子,当平均气温低于最大降雪量气温时,随气温升高降雪量呈增加趋势;当平均气温高于最大降雪量气温时,随气温升高降雪量呈减少趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 降雪, 气温阈值模型, 天山山区

Abstract:

Snow as a land-cover type that is mainly distributed at the high latitude and high altitude regions. Snowfall, as are main precipitation type in mountainous areas, presents significant temporal and spatial difference which was affected by climate change. In this study, based on APHRO’s dataset and temperature threshold model to analyze snowfall changes in the Tianshan Mountains during 1961-2015. Results indicated that: 1) Temperature showed increasing trend in the Tianshan Mountains since 1961, with a rate of 0.027℃/a. And temperature increase rate in winter was higher than that in summer. Meanwhile, the average air temperature of elevation above 3 000 m is rise to around 0℃ during 1961-2015. 2) Precipitation exhibited significant increasing with a rate of 0.42 mm/a (P<0.01) in winter, while decrease in spring and summer. 3) Snowfall changes were characterized by temporal and spatial variations. Snowfall presented positive relationship with air temperature in the regions with elevation over 3 000 m, while negative relationship in regions with elevation below 3 000 m. 4) Maximum snowfall temperature is a key factor to understanding changes of snowfall under warming. When mean temperature is below/above maximum snowfall temperature, snowfall usually increases/decreases with increased warming. Therefore, study on the snowfall variations in mountainous areas can be very helpful to understand the effects of climate change on hydrology process in mountainous areas.

Key words: climate change, snowfall, temperature threshold model, the Tianshan Mountains

中图分类号:

P467

邓海军, 陈亚宁, 陈忠升. 增温增湿环境下天山山区降雪量变化[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11): 1933-1942.

Haijun Deng, Yaning Chen, Zhongsheng Chen. Changes of Snowfall Under Warmer and Wetter in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(11): 1933-1942.

图/表 12

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变量	格点				区域
变量	RMSE	格点数	MAPD	格点数	R²	RMSE	MAPD
气温	< 2℃	1064/1276	< 0.25	775/1276	0.99	1.35	0.29
降水量	< 3 mm	684/1276	< 1.3	831/1276	0.57	3.28	1.29

	平均值±标准差(℃)	趋势(℃/a)	Z值	显著性
年均	4.53±0.78	0.027	4.18	^***
冬季	-10.6±1.53	0.034	2.52	^**
春季	5.43±1.16	0.032	2.91	^***
夏季	16.27±0.59	0.019	3.37	^***
秋季	4.32±0.98	0.023	2.97	^***

	平均值±标准差(mm)	趋势(mm/a)	Z值	显著性
年均	278.7±42.9	0.13	0.69	-
冬季	40.29±11.57	0.42	4.28	^***
春季	86.4±20.3	-0.35	-1.67	^*
夏季	79.6±17.8	-0.12	-0.81	-
秋季	51.6±14.8	0.24	1.77	^*

区域	研究方法	时间序列	数据源	主要结论	文献来源
天山	双阈值气温模型	1961~2015年	格点数据	冬季呈增加趋势;高海拔区域呈增加趋势	本文
	将雨雪混合全部归为降雪	1961~2010年	站点数据	降雪呈增加趋势;雪雨比呈减少趋势	[28]
	频率求交法和概率保证法	1950s~2014年	站点数据	雪雨比的变化范围为 0.02~1.79,随着海拔的升高而增大	[40]
青藏高原	双阈值气温模型	1961~2014年	站点数据	最大降雪量气温是控制降雪变化的关键因子	[16]
	双阈值气温模型	1961~2014年	站点数据	降雪变化与下垫面性质密切相关	[41,42]

增温增湿环境下天山山区降雪量变化

Changes of Snowfall Under Warmer and Wetter in the Tianshan Mountains

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高度带	a+b+c+d	e	f	h	i	j	l
A	25	26	62	0	304	0	6
B	113	19	88	0	310	1	23
C	74	13	16	1	141	0	54

高度带	a+b+c+d	e	f	h	i	j	k	l
冬季	149	40	368	0	583	0	2	134
春季	987	36	0	0	219	4	3	27
夏季	608	18	0	3	610	28	9	0
秋季	239	91	18	1	882	0	5	40