地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 1933-1942.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.11.021
• • 上一篇
收稿日期:
2017-11-20
修回日期:
2018-03-12
出版日期:
2018-11-20
发布日期:
2018-11-20
作者简介:
作者简介:邓海军(1987-),男,湖南隆回人,博士,讲师,主要从事山区气候水文过程及流域水循环研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Haijun Deng1,2,4,5(), Yaning Chen2, Zhongsheng Chen3
Received:
2017-11-20
Revised:
2018-03-12
Online:
2018-11-20
Published:
2018-11-20
Supported by:
摘要:
基于APHRO’s气温和降水数据集,运用气温阈值模型,分析了1961~2015年间天山山区降雪量变化特征。研究表明,自1961年以来,天山山区升温趋势显著,速率为0.027℃/a,且冬半年的升温速度大于夏半年。同时,3 000 m海拔以上区域的平均气温上升到0℃左右。冬季降水的增加速率为0.42 mm/a(P<0.01),春季和夏季的降水量呈减少趋势。降雪量变化时空差异显著,3 000 m海拔以上区域降雪随气温的升高而增加,而3 000 m以下区域降雪随气温的升高而减少。最大降雪量气温是控制降雪变化的关键因子,当平均气温低于最大降雪量气温时,随气温升高降雪量呈增加趋势;当平均气温高于最大降雪量气温时,随气温升高降雪量呈减少趋势。
中图分类号:
邓海军, 陈亚宁, 陈忠升. 增温增湿环境下天山山区降雪量变化[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(11): 1933-1942.
Haijun Deng, Yaning Chen, Zhongsheng Chen. Changes of Snowfall Under Warmer and Wetter in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(11): 1933-1942.
表6
高亚洲区域降雪变化研究"
区域 | 研究方法 | 时间序列 | 数据源 | 主要结论 | 文献来源 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
天山 | 双阈值气温模型 | 1961~2015年 | 格点数据 | 冬季呈增加趋势;高海拔区域呈增加趋势 | 本文 |
将雨雪混合全部归为降雪 | 1961~2010年 | 站点数据 | 降雪呈增加趋势;雪雨比呈减少趋势 | [28] | |
频率求交法和概率保证法 | 1950s~2014年 | 站点数据 | 雪雨比的变化范围为 0.02~1.79,随着海拔 的升高而增大 | [40] | |
青藏高原 | 双阈值气温模型 | 1961~2014年 | 站点数据 | 最大降雪量气温是控制降雪变化的关键因子 | [16] |
双阈值气温模型 | 1961~2014年 | 站点数据 | 降雪变化与下垫面性质密切相关 | [41,42] |
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