地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 2074-2083.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.12.016
收稿日期:
2017-12-03
修回日期:
2018-03-15
出版日期:
2018-12-20
发布日期:
2018-12-20
作者简介:
作者简介:孔祥夫(1990-),男,辽宁丹东人,博士,主要从事交通与土地利用以及出行行为分析研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2017-12-03
Revised:
2018-03-15
Online:
2018-12-20
Published:
2018-12-20
Supported by:
摘要:
从土地利用视角分析轨道站点客流的影响因素,基于直接估计模型,选择不同类型用地楼板面积、公交线路数量、站点中心性、站点可达性4个变量建立非线性回归函数,分析不同类型用地客流生成率与站点可达性之间的衰减规律。结果表明:① 相比于线性衰减规律,客流生成率随站点可达性的降低更符合指数衰减规律,用地距离地铁站0~0.5 km时客流生成率下降最快。② 单位面积各类用地客流生成率由大到小依次为:交通用地>办公用地>商业用地≈城中村>工业用地>居住用地>其他用地。③ 客流生成率受站点可达性影响强度由大到小依次为:商业用地>办公用地>交通用地>其他用地>居住用地>城中村>工业用地。
中图分类号:
孔祥夫, 杨家文. 土地利用视角下的轨道站点客流预测——以深圳市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(12): 2074-2083.
Xiangfu Kong, Jiawen Yang. A New Method for Forecasting Station-level Transit Ridership from Land-use Perspective: The Case of Shenzhen City[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(12): 2074-2083.
表1
变量描述"
变量类型 | 变量 | 变量描述 | 变量特性 | 最大值 | 最小值 | 平均值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
因变量 | R | 站点总客流,包括进站 与出站客流之和(人/d) | 连续 | 93561 | 511 | 27583 |
距离变量 | d | 建筑距最近地铁站的路网距离(km) | 连续 | 0.800 | 0.003 | 0.493 |
各类用地 | RES_LD | 居住用地楼板面积(m2) | 连续 | 669852.80 | 3.59 | 5931.19 |
楼板面积 | COM_LD | 商业用地楼板面积(m2) | 连续 | 453710.48 | 4.50 | 6331.69 |
OFF_LD | 办公用地楼板面积(m2) | 连续 | 404602.10 | 9.75 | 18162.58 | |
IND_LD | 工业用地楼板面积(m2) | 连续 | 149573.75 | 4.00 | 2402.58 | |
VIL_LD | 城中村楼板面积(m2) | 连续 | 43710.00 | 1.00 | 666.71 | |
TRANS_LD | 交通用地楼板面积(m2) | 连续 | 263312.28 | 4.80 | 8869.62 | |
OTH_LD | 其他用地楼板面积(m2) | 连续 | 550749.00 | 1.00 | 2659.49 | |
节点中心性 | Closeness | 接近中心性 | 连续 | 0.103 | 0.040 | 0.077 |
Betweenness | 中介中心性 | 连续 | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.110 | |
公交变量 | Bus | 公交线路数量 | 连续 | 65 | 1 | 22.10 |
表2
第一步模型参数值"
参数 | 估计值 | 标准差 | 上限 | 下限 |
---|---|---|---|---|
接近中心性 | 7.655 | 5.141 | -2.566 | 17.876 |
中介中心性 | 1.801 | 0.707 | 0.396 | 3.205 |
公交线路 | 74.306 | 60.613 | -46.189 | 194.802 |
居住 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.006 |
商业 | 0.006 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.013 |
办公 | 0.007 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.014 |
工业 | 0.005 | 0.003 | -0.001 | 0.011 |
城中村 | 0.006 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.012 |
交通 | 0.030 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0.059 |
其他 | 0.001 | 0.002 | -0.007 | 0.002 |
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