中国国家级经济技术开发区及其产业空间格局演化——基于地级及以上市面板数据实证研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.03.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取1989~2015年地级市国家级经济技术开发区数量及主导产业面板数据,运用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）技术,探讨国家级经济技术开发区及其产业空间格局演化特征。研究发现：① 国家级经济技术开发区整体经历探索阶段、推广阶段、完善阶段和升级阶段等4个阶段;空间格局演化体现出“点轴结构、T型结构、π型结构和网状结构”4种空间形态;空间扩散方式有“点-线-面”扩散、梯度扩散、等级扩散、邻近扩散、集聚扩散和升级扩散6种扩散模式;空间相关性整体呈波动起伏且逐渐上升态势,高-高集聚区从青岛-烟台逐渐演变为长三角、京津冀和福建沿海。② 五大主导产业集中稳定,装备制造始终处于集聚态势,其余4个主导产业呈“分散-集聚”态势;三大类型产业空间布局演化与上述空间格局演化态势基本一致,空间集聚性整体呈“N型”变化态势,技术密集型产业集聚特征最为明显。

关键词: 经济技术开发区, 产业空间格局, 主导产业, ESDA, 中国

Abstract:

The spatial and temporal pattern of state-level economic and technological development zones is basically consistent with that of China's opening-up strategy. It is of practical significance for the scientific development of China's economic and technological development zones and their industries to strengthen the research on the space-time pattern of national economic and technological development zones and their industries. In this article, the number of state-level economic and technological development zones and the panel data of leading industries in prefecture-level cities from 1989 to 2015 were selected, and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) was applied to exploring the evolution characteristics of state-level economic and technological development zones and their industrial spatial patterns. Study found that China's national economic and technological development zones: 1) development has 4 stages: the exploration stage (1984-1989), the promotion stage (1990-1999), perfecting stage (2000-2009) and upgrade stage (2010-2015), and the spatial pattern of evolution of the corresponding showed 4 space forms of point axis structure, T type structure, a PI type structure and network structure; the six patterns of spatial pattern evolution are "point-line-surface" diffusion, gradient diffusion, grade diffusion, neighborhood diffusion, agglomeration diffusion and upgrade diffusion. The spatial correlation presents a fluctuating agglomeration change trend, and the "high-high" agglomeration zone gradually evolves from Qingdao-Yantai to the 3 agglomeration zones in the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the coastal area of Fujian Province. 2) The evolution law of the leading industry spatial pattern is: the 5 leading industries (namely equipment manufacturing, communication and electronics, petrochemical industry, food industry and pharmaceutical manufacturing) are relatively concentrated and stable, and the spatial pattern is basically consistent with the 4 forms of spatial pattern changes in the national economic and technological development zone; 5 leading industries of spatial agglomeration were characterized by: the equipment manufacturing industry is still gathering momentum, which in 1999 and 2015 were at the 0.01 level significant agglomeration, those in 1989 and 2009 at the 0.1 level significant agglomeration, the rest were in "from dispersion to agglomeration" situation, including pharmaceutical manufacturing, communications, electronic and petrochemical industry in 2015 with the 0.01 level significant agglomeration. All illustrated the 5 leading industries were more concentrated in 2015. 3) The spatial pattern evolution of the 3 types of industries was basically the same as that of the national economic and technological development zones; The spatial agglomeration of the industries showed an overall "N-type" change trend, in which the technology-intensive and labor-intensive industries were fluctuating agglomeration trend, and the capital-intensive industries showed a "decentralization—agglomeration—decentralization—agglomeration" change trend. From the perspective of the significance of agglomeration, technology-intensive industries were significantly agglomerated at the level of 0.01 in 1999 and 2015, and at the level of 0.1 in 2009. Capital-intensive industries were significantly concentrated at the level of 0.01 in 2015. Labor-intensive industries gathered significantly at the level of 0.05 in 1999, and at the level of 0.1 in 1989 and 2015.

Key words: Economic and Technological Development Zone, spatial pattern, leading industry, ESDA, China

中图分类号:

F127.9

蔡善柱, 陆林. 中国国家级经济技术开发区及其产业空间格局演化——基于地级及以上市面板数据实证研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(3): 415-423.

Shanzhu Cai, Lin Lu. China’s State-level Economic and Technological Development Zones and the Industrial Spatial Pattern Evolution: Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of Prefecture Level Cities[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(3): 415-423.

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阶段	时间段	所在位置			数量（个）	GDP总和（亿元）
阶段	时间段	东部	中部	西部	数量（个）	GDP总和（亿元）
探索阶段	1984~1989年	14	0	0	14	55.99
推广阶段	1990~1999年	31	4	2	37	1557.47
完善阶段	2000~2009年	34	9	13	56	18386.35
升级阶段	2010~2015年	107	63	49	219	81118.46

行业	1989年			1999年			2009年		2015年
行业	数量	比重（%）		数量	比重（%）		数量	比重（%）	数量	比重（%）
装备制造	9	64.29		27	72.97		49	87.5	188	85.85
装备制造	0.0453*			0.1417***			0.0500*		0.3145***
通信电子	6	42.86		18	48.65		26	46.43	100	45.66
通信电子	-0.0156			0.0171			0.0964***			0.2909***
石化行业	4	28.57		15	40.54		19	33.93	59	26.94
石化行业	-0.0147*			0.0238			-0.0210			0.1281***
食品行业	4	28.57	12	32.43	20	35.71	78	35.62
食品行业	-0.0125		0.0919***		-0.0338			-0.0065
医药制造	3	21.43	11	29.73	12	21.43	72	32.88
医药制造	-0.0046*		-0.0254		-0.0042			0.1137***

	1989年	1999年	2009年	2015年
装备制造	集聚分布（环渤海、长三角）	集聚分布（长三角、环渤海）	集聚分布（长三角、环渤海、长江沿岸、陇海线沿线）	集聚分布（长江中下游、环渤海、陇海线沿线、长江沿岸、东北地区等）
通信电子	东部沿海分散分布	集聚分布（东部沿海、长江沿岸、环渤海）	集聚分布（长三角、环渤海、福建沿海、长江沿岸）	集聚分布（长三角、长江沿岸、环渤海、陇海线沿线、福建沿海）
石化行业	沿海分散分布	沿海分散集聚分布	沿海分散集聚分布	全国分散集聚分布
食品行业	沿海分散分布	沿海分散集聚分布	全国分散分布	全国分散分布
医药制造	沿海分散分布	沿海分散分布	沿海分散分布	集聚分布（长三角、长江沿岸、京津冀、东北地区、环渤海等）

主导产业	1989年	1999年	2009年	2015年
劳动密集型	0.0394*	0.0583**	0.0190	0.0427*
资本密集型	-0.0255	0.0163	-0.0171	0.1666***
技术密集型	0.0294	0.1270***	0.0489*	0.2720***