贵州乌江流域人口与经济发展协调性研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.03.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

贵州乌江流域是典型的山地流域,流域自然生态环境恶劣,人口与经济发展矛盾突出,探究流域人口与经济协调发展关系对于推动流域人口与经济可持续发展具有重要意义。选取2001~2015年贵州乌江流域各区域相关数据,运用人口-经济弹性、地理集中度、耦合指数、空间自相关和重心分析等方法对流域人口与经济协调发展关系进行探究。结果表明：① 在总量规模上,流域人口增长与经济增长协调度较高,但流域内各区域却存在差异。② 人口、经济地理集中度在空间分布上存在区域差异,流域中部区域较高且由中部向四周逐渐降低。人口、经济地理集中度在全域空间上莫兰指数值逐渐变小,表明流域人口、经济地理集中度空间自相关性在减弱,人口、经济发展的空间独立性逐渐增强。③ 人口重心、经济重心逐渐向远离流域几何重心的西南方向移动,人口重心与经济重心发生偏离,贵州乌江流域存在区域发展非均衡性。

关键词: 人口, 经济, 空间自相关, 协调发展, 乌江流域

Abstract:

The Wujiang River Basin is a typical mountainous basin in Guizhou Province. Its natural ecological environment is bad and the contradiction between population and economic development is prominent. Exploring the relationship between population and economic coordinated development in the basin is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of population and economy in the basin. Based on the data from 2001 to 2015 by the Wujiang River Basin of Guizhou Province, this paper explores the relationship between population and economic coordinated development in the basin by means of population-economic elasticity, geographic concentration, coupling index, spatial autocorrelation and gravity analysis. The results show that: 1) In terms of the total scale, the population growth and economic growth in the basin have a high degree of coordination, but there are differences among different regions of the basin. 2) There are regional differences in the spatial distribution of population and economic geographic concentration. The central region of the basin is higher and gradually decreases from the middle to the surrounding areas. The value of Moran index of population and economic geography concentration degree decreases gradually in the global space, which indicates that the spatial autocorrelation of population and economic geography concentration degree is weakening, and the spatial independence of population and economic development is increasing gradually. 3) The Population center of gravity and the economic center of gravity gradually move to the southwest far away from the geometric center of gravity of the basin. The Population center of gravity deviates from economic center of gravity. There is a regional development imbalance in the Wujiang River Basin.

Key words: population, economy, spatial autocorrelation, coordinated development, the Wujiang River Basin

中图分类号:

C922

王德怀, 李旭东. 贵州乌江流域人口与经济发展协调性研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(3): 477-486.

Dehuai Wang, Xudong Li. Coordination of Population and Economic Development in the Wujiang River Basin of Guizhou Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(3): 477-486.

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年份	人口增长率（%）	GDP增长率（%）	人口-经济增长弹性
2001	1.14	9.91	0.11
2002	1.06	11.56	0.09
2003	0.84	13.63	0.06
2004	0.86	16.79	0.05
2005	0.70	12.84	0.05
2006	0.99	16.12	0.06
2007	0.13	19.07	0.01
2008	-2.93	17.42	-0.17
2009	0.13	14.06	0.01
2010	-7.17	16.92	-0.42
2011	-0.15	24.32	-0.01
2012	0.43	21.96	0.02
2013	0.62	22.13	0.03
2014	0.27	18.99	0.01
2015	0.76	15.48	0.05

地区	人口年均增长率（%）	经济年均增长率（%）	人口-经济增长弹性	地区	人口年均增长率（%）	经济年均增长率（%）	人口-经济增长弹性
贵阳市	3.92	16.94	0.23	关岭县	-0.85	20.81	-0.04
开阳县	-1.11	19.11	-0.06	毕节市	-0.65	16.17	-0.04
息烽县	-0.89	22.14	-0.04	大方县	-1.43	19.64	-0.07
修文县	-0.91	19.96	-0.05	黔西县	-1.09	19.02	-0.06
清镇市	-0.42	16.85	-0.02	金沙县	-0.20	19.96	-0.01
六盘水市	2.64	19.21	0.14	织金县	-0.95	18.35	-0.05
六枝特区	-1.55	19.91	-0.08	纳雍县	-0.74	21.18	-0.04
水城县	0.14	24.36	0.01	威宁县	1.25	18.51	0.07
遵义市	4.44	15.23	0.29	赫章县	0.24	19.39	0.01
遵义县	-2.59	12.57	-0.21	石阡县	-1.48	20.25	-0.07
桐梓县	-1.50	16.28	-0.09	思南县	-1.58	17.24	-0.09
绥阳县	-1.96	14.56	-0.13	印江县	-2.53	19.16	-0.13
正安县	-3.04	14.24	-0.21	德江县	-1.26	17.41	-0.07
道真县	-2.14	15.58	-0.14	沿河县	-1.40	19.40	-0.07
务川县	-1.81	16.60	-0.11	松桃县	-1.77	18.79	-0.09
凤冈县	-1.86	15.75	-0.12	黄平县	-1.91	17.89	-0.11
湄潭县	-1.48	11.35	-0.13	施秉县	-1.11	16.94	-0.07
余庆县	-1.40	15.37	-0.09	福泉市	-0.29	16.60	-0.02
安顺市	-0.34	16.77	-0.02	贵定县	-1.17	13.10	-0.09
平坝县	-0.72	16.33	-0.04	瓮安县	-1.08	17.51	-0.06
普定县	-0.23	18.12	-0.01	龙里县	-1.63	16.65	-0.10
镇宁县	-1.29	18.42	-0.07

区域类型	人口增长与经济增长协调发展关系	区域
I类区域	经济增速高,人口-经济弹性高	六盘水市、印江县
II类区域	经济增速高,人口-经济弹性低	威宁县、赫章县、纳雍县、水城县、关岭县、镇宁县、普定县、六枝特区、织金县、大方县、黔西县、修文县、息烽县、开阳县、金沙县、黄平县、石阡县、沿河县、松桃县
III类区域	经济增速低,人口-经济弹性低	福泉市、瓮安县、余庆县、施秉县、桐梓县、思南县、德江县、务川县、清镇市、贵定县、安顺市、平坝县、毕节市、龙里县
IV类区域	经济增速低,人口-经济弹性高	贵阳市、遵义市、遵义县、湄潭县、凤冈县、绥阳县、正安县、道真县

区域类型	人口集聚与经济集聚关系	区域
第一类区域	人口集聚滞后于经济集聚	六盘水市、金沙县、遵义市、遵义县、息烽县、开阳县、修文县、清镇市、平坝县、贵阳市、龙里县、福泉市
第二类区域	人口集聚与经济集聚协调	水城县、六枝特区、安顺市、贵定县、余庆县
第三类区域	人口集聚超前于经济集聚	威宁县、赫章县、纳雍县、关岭县、镇宁县、普定县、织金县、大方县、黔西县、黄平县、石阡县、沿河县、松桃县、瓮安县、施秉县、桐梓县、思南县、德江县、务川县、毕节市、印江县、湄潭县、凤冈县、绥阳县、正安县、道真县