基于Copula函数的中国东部季风区干旱风险研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.03.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961~2016年的中国地面降水月值0.5°×0.5°格网数据集计算了中国东部季风区不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数,并结合游程理论识别气象干旱事件。常规的单变量和基于Copula函数的双变量频率分析分别用来描述干旱事件的干旱历时和干旱烈度。结果表明：① 3个月时间尺度和6个月时间尺度的干旱特征空间格局非常相似,但与12个月时间尺度的干旱特征空间格局差异较大;② 各时间尺度的干旱历时和干旱烈度均呈正相关,即具有较长干旱历时的地区往往也是干旱烈度较大的区域;③ 西南区、长江下游地区、黄淮海区北部和南部、内蒙古东部和黑龙江省东部干旱风险较高,而长白山地区、松嫩平原和珠江流域干旱风险较低。研究结果可为中国东部季风区的干旱区划及旱灾风险评估提供科学依据。

关键词: 气象干旱, 重现期, 游程理论, 标准化降水指数, Copula 函数

Abstract:

In this study, firstly, the meteorological drought events are defined by standardized precipitation index and run theory using the gridded dataset of monthly precipitation with spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° in East China Monsoon Area from 1961 to 2016. Secondly, Exponential and Gamma functions are selected to model the marginal distributions of drought duration and severity, respectively. Then, the Clayton Copula is used to construct the joint distribution of drought duration and severity. Lastly, conventional univariate and copula-based bivariate frequency analyses are employed to characterize drought events at different time scales, respectively. The results indicate that: 1) The spatial pattern of drought characteristics for 3-month time scale is very similar to that of 6-month time scale, but different from that of 12-month time scale; 2) The drought duration has a positive correlation with the drought severity at all three time scales, that is to say, the areas characterized with longer drought duration are also associated with higher drought severity; 3) Southwest China, the lower Yangtze River, northern and southern Huang-Huai-Hai Region, eastern Inner Mongolia and Eastern Heilongjiang are associated with a higher drought risk, while lower drought risks are noted for Changbai Mountains, Songnen Plain and the Pearl River Basin. The results can provide scientific basis for drought zoning and drought risk assessment in the Eastern China Monsoon Area.

Key words: meteorological drought, return period, run theory, standardized precipitation index, Copula function

中图分类号:

李明, 胡炜霞, 王贵文, 柴旭荣, 张莲芝. 基于Copula函数的中国东部季风区干旱风险研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(3): 506-515.

Li Ming, Hu Weixia, Wang Guiwen, Chai Xurong, Zhang Lianzhi. Drought Risk in Monsoon Area of the Eastern China Based on Copula Function[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(3): 506-515.

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区域	SPI-3				SPI-6				SPI-12
区域	干旱历时	干旱烈度	烈度峰值	干旱次数	干旱历时	干旱烈度	烈度峰值	干旱次数	干旱历时	干旱烈度	烈度峰值	干旱次数
东北区	3.61	3.02	13.54	58.50	4.90	4.11	18.35	44.35	11.18	9.53	43.90	20.71
黄淮海区	3.71	3.06	12.66	56.78	5.10	4.30	18.81	42.93	10.24	8.79	34.24	22.65
西北区	3.60	2.95	12.24	58.10	5.22	4.42	18.64	42.09	10.22	8.93	39.37	22.91
长江中下游区	3.90	3.22	14.06	54.01	5.67	4.86	20.66	38.69	9.18	7.98	38.06	25.17
西南区	3.93	3.16	15.50	54.29	5.63	4.60	22.64	38.96	10.56	8.67	46.00	22.28
华南区	3.74	3.10	14.34	56.19	5.47	4.59	21.77	38.89	8.99	7.63	35.60	25.19

区域	SPI-3				SPI-6				SPI-12
区域	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a
东北区	5.49	6.95	8.34	9.13	6.72	9.23	11.64	13.02	7.32	14.56	21.65	25.76
黄淮海区	5.53	7.00	8.39	9.18	6.83	9.42	11.89	13.30	7.85	14.25	20.41	23.95
西北区	5.44	6.91	8.31	9.11	6.88	9.45	11.89	13.29	8.06	14.40	20.51	24.02
长江中下游区	5.71	7.29	8.79	9.64	7.16	10.10	12.91	14.52	7.58	13.55	19.45	22.88
西南区	5.78	7.43	9.00	9.90	7.14	10.21	13.16	14.85	7.20	14.09	21.08	25.19
华南区	5.56	7.05	8.46	9.27	6.98	9.90	12.71	14.31	7.40	13.26	19.02	22.35
全区	5.58	7.1	8.53	9.35	6.92	9.64	12.26	13.75	7.51	14.10	20.57	24.33

区域	SPI-3				SPI-6				SPI-12
区域	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a
东北区	5.09	7.19	9.29	10.51	5.77	8.62	11.47	13.14	6.03	12.64	19.25	23.11
黄淮海区	5.05	7.17	9.29	10.53	5.89	8.87	11.85	13.60	6.26	12.35	18.44	22.01
西北区	4.93	6.98	9.02	10.22	5.94	9.01	12.07	13.86	6.61	12.80	18.99	22.61
长江中下游区	5.15	7.38	9.61	10.92	6.13	9.50	12.86	14.83	6.49	12.03	17.56	20.80
西南区	5.09	7.28	9.47	10.75	5.82	9.01	12.19	14.06	5.92	11.83	17.84	21.35
华南区	5.09	7.24	9.39	10.65	5.82	9.00	12.18	14.04	6.14	11.42	16.71	19.80
全区	5.08	7.22	9.36	10.62	5.88	8.95	12.01	13.80	6.19	12.24	18.30	21.84

区域	SPI-3				SPI-6				SPI-12
区域	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	30 a
东北区	7.44	1.96	0.47	0.20	12.91	3.74	1.01	0.46	44.16	18.34	7.09	3.98
黄淮海区	7.59	2.01	0.49	0.21	13.86	4.21	1.20	0.57	39.91	14.28	4.68	2.38
西北区	7.00	1.82	0.43	0.18	14.31	4.33	1.22	0.57	40.66	14.71	4.89	2.51
长江中下游区	9.05	2.68	0.72	0.33	17.74	6.35	2.16	1.14	36.80	12.51	3.95	1.97
西南区	9.28	2.91	0.85	0.40	17.14	6.12	2.09	1.10	40.87	16.11	6.08	3.43
华南区	7.98	2.18	0.54	0.24	16.20	5.50	1.76	0.89	34.96	11.17	3.30	1.59