2003~2015年中国城市劳动力技能互补、收入水平与人口城镇化

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2003~2015年中国256个地级市面板数据,对城市中高低技能劳动力耦合协调度进行衡量,并就扩大低技能劳动力规模对城市收入水平的影响进行了分析。主要结论为：① 过去10 a间,中国市级层面的高低技能劳动力耦合协调度总体上升,但上升幅度存在显著的区域间差异;② 七大国土区域内部的高低技能劳动力耦合协调度差异不断扩大,表明城市间高低技能劳动力流动正在加速;③ SLM和SEM模型均表明,地市级层面的低技能劳动力比重、城市收入水平和城市规模三者正相关,说明城市经济规模越大,扩大其低技能劳动力比重,越有助于提升城市总体收入水平。

关键词: 技能互补, 收入水平, 职工工资, 人口城镇化

Abstract:

China has been entered the new period of urbanization. In order to investigate the role of skill complementarity in this process, firstly, the coupling coordination degree of high-low skilled labor force in 285 prefecture level cities in 2003-2012 was measured, selecting ‘information transmission, software and information technology service’‘financial service’‘wholesale and retail trade industry’ and ‘accommodation and catering industry’ as main representative industries. Then, the effect of expanding the scale of low-skilled labor force on worker’s income analyzed, both on national level and regional level. Finally, the effects of several kinds of public services are also been discussed. The three main findings were as followed. Firstly, the coupling coordination degree of high-low skilled labor force at prefecture level was generally increased in the past decade, while varied across regions greatly. In descending order of improvement degree, the 7 main national regions can be sorted as followed: northwestern (0.427), southwestern (0.353), eastern (0.346), middle (0.253), southern (0.192), northern (0.190), northeastern (0.143) China. This may be related to the intra-regional difference in industrial structure. For example, in the period been investigated, the eastern China experienced increasing labor force cost, which leaded to a back-flow of labor force from the eastern to the western areas. Secondly, the standard error of coupling coordination degree of cities within 7 main national regions was increased, which implied an accelerated flow of labor force in these regions. Especially, the value in the eastern China increased from 0.367 to 0.410, which may be related to economic development periods, while the value in southwestern China decreased from 0.410 to 0.377, in the northeastern China the value increased from 0.365 up to 0.453, which may also be reflection of its economic situation.Thirdly, percentage of low-skilled labor force, urban income level and urban size were positively related, which showed that the larger the city was, the greater positive effect would be expanding low-skilled labor force scale on urban income. This finding may suggest that, in current period of urbanization in China, expanding the population of low-skilled labor force in middle and large cities can be beneficial for increasing of urban wage level.

Key words: skill complementarity, income level, worker’s income, urbanization

中图分类号:

F291.1

杜群阳, 俞航东. 2003~2015年中国城市劳动力技能互补、收入水平与人口城镇化[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(4): 525-532.

Qunyang Du, Hangdong Yu. Skill Complementarity of Labor Force, Income Level and Urbanization in China’s Cities in 2003-2015[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(4): 525-532.

图/表 3

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变量	空间滞后模型SLM点项目			空间误差模型SEM
lnwrp	0.027**(0.029)			0.057**(0.026)
lntrans		0.023**(0.025)			0.023**(0.025)
lnaccp			0.026**(0.020)			0.026**(0.020)
lngdp	0.070**(0.035)	0.218***(0.030)	0.217***(0.030)	0.229(0.030)**	0.218***(0.030)	0.217***(0.030)
lnindp	0.092*(0.058)	0.057(0.053)	0.067*(0.054)	0.013**(0.052)	0.057**(0.053)	0.067*(0.054)
lnigp	0.071**(0.037)	0.150***(0.035 )	0.143***(0.035)	0.157(0.034)	0.150***(0.035)	0.143***(0.035)
lnfdi	0.056***(0.009)	0.019**(0.009)	0.017**(0.009)	0.017**(0.009)	0.019**(0.009)	0.017*(0.009)
lnscie	0.047***(0.014)	0.005(0.013 )	0.004(0.013)	0.003***(0.013)	0.005(0.013 )	0.004(0.013)
lnhosp	0.025(0.032 )	0.159***(0.028)	0.154***(0.028 )	0.155(0.028)	0.159***(0.028)	0.154***(0.028)
lnpark	0.048**(0.024)	0.054**(0.021)	0.049**(0.022)	0.048**(0.021)	0.054**(0.021)	0.049**(0.022)
常数	8.332***(0.253)	7.348***(0.270)	7.355***(0.267)	7.148**(0.270)	7.349***(0.270)	7.356***(0.267)
ρ/λ	0.076	0.074	0.065	0.026	0.022	0.011
Logl	30.77	53.653	54.140	55.562	53.653	54.140
SC	0.427	0.524	0.526	0.528	0.520	0.523

变量	空间滞后模型SLM			空间误差模型SEM
lnwrp	0.017**(0.030)			0.017**(0.030)
lntrans		0.018*(0.033)			0.018*(0.033)
lnaccp			0.006*(0.024)			0.006*(0.024)
lngdp	0.161*** (0.044)	0.147***(0.044)	0.150***(0.044)	0.161***(0.044)	0.147***(0.044)	0.150***(0.044)
常数	0.032	0.034	0.038	0.038	0.035	0.045
ρ/λ	5.900	8.620	8.735	5.900	8.620	8.732
Log l	0.224	0.207	0.206	0.224	0.207	0.206
SC	0.058	0.048	0.078	0.059	0.049	0.079