地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 533-540.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.002

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中国人海经济系统环境适应性演化及预警

李博1(), 史钊源1, 田闯1, 苏飞2, 彭飞1   

  1. 1.辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连 116029
    2.浙江工商大学旅游与城乡规划学院,浙江 杭州 310018
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-28 修回日期:2018-07-15 出版日期:2019-04-10 发布日期:2019-04-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李博(1983-),女,吉林长春人,副教授,博士,主要从事区域发展和海洋经济地理研究。E-mail: libo_ok@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年项目(41201114)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题(16JJD790021)、辽宁省教育厅基地重点项目(JZ201783604)、大连市青年科技之星项目支持计划(2016RQ048)资助

Environmental Adaptability Evolution and Early-warning of Human-sea Economic System in China

Bo Li1(), Zhaoyuan Shi1, Chuang Tian1, Fei Su2, Fei Peng1   

  1. 1.Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    2. School of Tourism Urban-rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
  • Received:2018-03-28 Revised:2018-07-15 Online:2019-04-10 Published:2019-04-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Youth Foundation of China (41201114),The MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences in University (16JJD790021), Educational Commission of Liaoning Province of China (JZ201783604), Dalian Youth Science and Technology Star Project Support Plan (2016RQ048)

摘要:

基于敏感性-稳定性-响应3维要素构建指标体系,运用熵值法和ARIMA-BP组合预测模型研究中国人海经济系统环境适应性的演化及预警。结果表明:2001~2016年中国人海经济系统环境适应性呈稳定上升态势,总体集中于中警状态,期间经历了“人海环境系统比较优势阶段→耦合协调阶段→人海经济系统比较优势阶段”的双螺旋适应过程,预计2017~2020年再次进入相互契合的轻警状态;16 a间中国人海经济系统环境适应性波动存在上升期短-衰退期长现象,预计未来4 a人海经济系统环境适应性在经济下行和生态约束背景下的速率不容乐观;权衡人海经济系统和人海环境系统的关系,追求总体效益最大化,延长适应性周期波动中扩张期活动,差别化和灵活性的适应行为是未来主要排警对策。

关键词: 人海经济系统, 环境适应性, 环境适应性预警, ARIMA-BP模型

Abstract:

Constructing environmental adaptability index system of human-sea economic system based on adaptability factors of sensitivity, stability and response. The entropy method was used to measure the environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system from 2001 to 2016. Combined with ARIMA-BP combined forecasting model, this article forecasts the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system from 2017 to 2020 and makes a detailed analysis of the light display mechanism. The results show that: 1) The environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system continued to increase from 2001 to 2016, the warning degree rose from serious alert to slight alert and the indicator lamp turned from orange lamp to blue lamp, and 70% of the years in the medium alert. The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is a trade-off between human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system, which experienced a comparative advantage phase of human-sea environment system→coupling and coordination stage→the comparative advantage phase of human-sea economic system. It is estimated that it will re-enter the highly coordinated phase of slight alert state from 2017 to 2020. 2) From 2001 to 2016, there was a short rise period and a long decline in the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system. It is estimated that the rate of environmental adaptability fluctuation of the Chinese human-sea economic system will not be optimistic in the context of economic downturn and ecological constraints from 2017 to 2020. 3) The ARIMA-BP combination forecasting model has a good simulation effect, and it is feasible to apply it to the environmental adaptability pre-warning study of the human-sea economic system. 4) The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is unique and dynamic, thus, it is the main policing strategy for the future to weigh the relationship between the human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system in pursuit of maximizing the overall efficiency and extending the expansion period of adaptive cyclical fluctuations, and to develop a differentiated and flexible adaptation action policy.

Key words: human-sea economic system, environmental adaptability, environmental adaptability early-warning, ARIMA-BP model

中图分类号: 

  • K902