中国人海经济系统环境适应性演化及预警

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.002

地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 533-540.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.002

中国人海经济系统环境适应性演化及预警

李博¹(), 史钊源¹, 田闯¹, 苏飞², 彭飞¹

1.辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连 116029
2.浙江工商大学旅游与城乡规划学院,浙江杭州 310018

收稿日期:2018-03-28 修回日期:2018-07-15 出版日期:2019-04-10 发布日期:2019-04-10
作者简介:
作者简介：李博(1983-),女,吉林长春人,副教授,博士,主要从事区域发展和海洋经济地理研究。E-mail: libo_ok@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年项目(41201114)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题(16JJD790021)、辽宁省教育厅基地重点项目(JZ201783604)、大连市青年科技之星项目支持计划(2016RQ048)资助

Environmental Adaptability Evolution and Early-warning of Human-sea Economic System in China

Bo Li¹(), Zhaoyuan Shi¹, Chuang Tian¹, Fei Su², Fei Peng¹

1.Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
2. School of Tourism Urban-rural Planning, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China

Received:2018-03-28 Revised:2018-07-15 Online:2019-04-10 Published:2019-04-10
Supported by:
National Natural Science Youth Foundation of China (41201114),The MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences in University (16JJD790021), Educational Commission of Liaoning Province of China (JZ201783604), Dalian Youth Science and Technology Star Project Support Plan (2016RQ048)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于敏感性-稳定性-响应3维要素构建指标体系,运用熵值法和ARIMA-BP组合预测模型研究中国人海经济系统环境适应性的演化及预警。结果表明：① 2001~2016年中国人海经济系统环境适应性呈稳定上升态势,总体集中于中警状态,期间经历了“人海环境系统比较优势阶段→耦合协调阶段→人海经济系统比较优势阶段”的双螺旋适应过程,预计2017~2020年再次进入相互契合的轻警状态;② 16 a间中国人海经济系统环境适应性波动存在上升期短-衰退期长现象,预计未来4 a人海经济系统环境适应性在经济下行和生态约束背景下的速率不容乐观;③ 权衡人海经济系统和人海环境系统的关系,追求总体效益最大化,延长适应性周期波动中扩张期活动,差别化和灵活性的适应行为是未来主要排警对策。

关键词: 人海经济系统, 环境适应性, 环境适应性预警, ARIMA-BP模型

Abstract:

Constructing environmental adaptability index system of human-sea economic system based on adaptability factors of sensitivity, stability and response. The entropy method was used to measure the environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system from 2001 to 2016. Combined with ARIMA-BP combined forecasting model, this article forecasts the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system from 2017 to 2020 and makes a detailed analysis of the light display mechanism. The results show that: 1) The environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system continued to increase from 2001 to 2016, the warning degree rose from serious alert to slight alert and the indicator lamp turned from orange lamp to blue lamp, and 70% of the years in the medium alert. The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is a trade-off between human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system, which experienced a comparative advantage phase of human-sea environment system→coupling and coordination stage→the comparative advantage phase of human-sea economic system. It is estimated that it will re-enter the highly coordinated phase of slight alert state from 2017 to 2020. 2) From 2001 to 2016, there was a short rise period and a long decline in the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system. It is estimated that the rate of environmental adaptability fluctuation of the Chinese human-sea economic system will not be optimistic in the context of economic downturn and ecological constraints from 2017 to 2020. 3) The ARIMA-BP combination forecasting model has a good simulation effect, and it is feasible to apply it to the environmental adaptability pre-warning study of the human-sea economic system. 4) The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is unique and dynamic, thus, it is the main policing strategy for the future to weigh the relationship between the human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system in pursuit of maximizing the overall efficiency and extending the expansion period of adaptive cyclical fluctuations, and to develop a differentiated and flexible adaptation action policy.

Key words: human-sea economic system, environmental adaptability, environmental adaptability early-warning, ARIMA-BP model

中图分类号:

K902

李博, 史钊源, 田闯, 苏飞, 彭飞. 中国人海经济系统环境适应性演化及预警[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(4): 533-540.

Bo Li, Zhaoyuan Shi, Chuang Tian, Fei Su, Fei Peng. Environmental Adaptability Evolution and Early-warning of Human-sea Economic System in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(4): 533-540.

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系统层	准则层	指标和权重
人海经济系统适应性（0.588）	敏感性（0.323）	海洋产业系统结构熵（0.040）^①;海洋生产总值（0.047）;海洋渔业增加值（0.049）;沿海港口吞吐量（0.047）;旅游外汇收入（0.042）
	稳定性（0.380）	海洋油气业增加值（0.051）;海洋矿业增加值（0.053）;海洋盐业增加值（0.042）;海洋化工业增加值（0.050）;海洋生物医药业增加值（0.054）;海洋电力业增加值（0.066）;海水利用业增加值（0.046）;海洋船舶工业增加值（0.060）;海洋工程建筑业增加值（0.053）;海洋交通运输业增加值（0.041）;滨海旅游业增加值（0.048）;海洋新兴产业增加值年均增速（0.039）
	响应（0.297）	海洋博士研究生数量（0.047）;涉海就业人员数（0.033）;海洋科研教育管理服务业增加值（0.042）;海洋全员劳动生产率（0.049）
人海环境系统适应性（0.412）	敏感性（0.304）	赤潮累计面积（0.071）;全海域未达到清洁海域水质标准的面积（0.112）;海洋油气平台含油污水排海量（0.079）;海平面上升（0.065）;疏浚物海洋倾倒量（0.062）;海洋灾害总经济损失（0.049）;海水捕捞/海水养殖（0.056）
	稳定性（0.361）	海洋生物资源量^②（0.093）;海洋矿产资源系数^③（0.088）;人均海域面积（0.069）
	响应（0.335）	海洋监控站位个数（0.077）;海洋类型自然保护区个数（0.061）;全国海水淡化工程规模（0.118）

警度	警限	警情特征	指示灯
巨警（Ⅰ级）	[-∞, X-2δ]	系统处于极不适应状态,系统结构粗放并残缺不全,敏感性、脆弱性问题显著,自组织自适应能力丧失,人海经济系统和人海环境系统难以协调发展	红色
重警（Ⅱ级）	（X-2δ, X-δ]	系统处于较不适应状态,代谢循环和免疫功能存在健康问题,充满不确定性和多样性等风险,人海经济系统和人海环境系统契合程度低	橙色
中警（Ⅲ级）	（X-δ, X+δ]	系统处于临界适应状态,系统结构继续敏感恶化,但尚能维持稳定状态,风险管理响应能力趋于整合,人海经济系统和人海环境系统冲突减缓	黄色
轻警（Ⅳ级）	（X+δ, X+2δ]	系统处于较适应状态,系统结构弹性增加,恢复力涌现,开始了自发的、计划的适应性风险规避,人海经济系统和人海环境系统向平衡方向演化	蓝色
无警（Ⅴ级）	（X+2δ, ∞]	系统处于自适应状态,不断涌现新功能,整体生命力增强,行为能力和组织结构完善,人海经济系统和人海环境系统积极配合、螺旋式上升	绿色

中国人海经济系统环境适应性演化及预警

Environmental Adaptability Evolution and Early-warning of Human-sea Economic System in China

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