地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 616-625.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.011
收稿日期:
2018-02-12
修回日期:
2018-05-23
出版日期:
2019-04-10
发布日期:
2019-04-10
作者简介:
作者简介:盖美(1971-),女,辽宁大连人,博士,教授,主要从事区域经济与可持续发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2018-02-12
Revised:
2018-05-23
Online:
2019-04-10
Published:
2019-04-10
Supported by:
摘要:
采用考虑非期望产出的SBM模型对中国沿海11省区(不包括港澳台地区)海洋生态效率进行测算,借助重心模型定量刻画了2001~2015年沿海省区海洋生态效率空间格局演化特征,并基于VAR模型探究空间格局演化与其影响因素之间的动态关系。结果表明:① 沿海省区海洋生态效率呈现上升趋势,天津、上海、江苏、福建、广东海洋生态效率由相对无效跃升至相对有效,辽宁、山东、海南由相对无效上升至相对低效,河北、浙江、广西始终处于相对无效水平。② 海洋生态效率重心移动路径可分为“2001~2006年东北方向迁移阶段”和“2006~2015年西南方向迁移阶段”,但重心移动范围主要位于长三角地区。③ 针对海洋生态效率空间格局演化影响因素的分析表明,海洋产业结构对海洋生态效率的影响呈正负波动态势但以正向促进为主,随着产业结构的不断优化,负向作用不断减弱;海洋科技水平对海洋生态效率会产生显著的正向推动作用和持续效益,在海洋生态效率变动的初期刺激作用尤为强烈;环境规制作为末端处理对海洋生态效率的影响并不显著。
中图分类号:
盖美, 展亚荣. 中国沿海省区海洋生态效率空间格局演化及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(4): 616-625.
Mei Gai, Yarong Zhan. Spatial Evolution of Marine Ecological Efficiency and Its Influential Factors in China Coastal Regions[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(4): 616-625.
表2
2001~2015年研究区海洋生态效率值"
省份 | 2001年 | 2003年 | 2005年 | 2007年 | 2009年 | 2011年 | 2013年 | 2015年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
天津 | 0.090 | 0.136 | 0.223 | 0.261 | 0.342 | 0.504 | 0.719 | 1.000 |
河北 | 0.080 | 0.096 | 0.121 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.280 | 0.339 | 0.393 |
辽宁 | 0.101 | 0.129 | 0.168 | 0.249 | 0.298 | 0.392 | 0.462 | 0.529 |
上海 | 0.157 | 0.191 | 0.349 | 0.538 | 0.611 | 0.738 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
江苏 | 0.091 | 0.132 | 0.180 | 0.291 | 0.374 | 0.517 | 0.666 | 1.000 |
浙江 | 0.102 | 0.132 | 0.158 | 0.178 | 0.234 | 0.276 | 0.317 | 0.390 |
福建 | 0.140 | 0.185 | 0.197 | 0.254 | 0.327 | 0.477 | 0.628 | 1.000 |
山东 | 0.105 | 0.137 | 0.170 | 0.260 | 0.332 | 0.418 | 0.526 | 0.623 |
广东 | 0.120 | 0.137 | 0.225 | 0.266 | 0.337 | 0.476 | 0.638 | 1.000 |
广西 | 0.097 | 0.085 | 0.116 | 0.161 | 0.201 | 0.270 | 0.307 | 0.380 |
海南 | 0.100 | 0.112 | 0.143 | 0.186 | 0.216 | 0.268 | 0.341 | 0.414 |
全国 | 0.108 | 0.134 | 0.187 | 0.263 | 0.317 | 0.420 | 0.540 | 0.703 |
表3
方差分解结果"
预测 期 | 标准 误差 | 海洋生态 效率 | 海洋产业 结构 | 海洋科技 支撑能力 | 环境 规制 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.087291 | 100.0000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
2 | 0.145331 | 77.94765 | 14.80597 | 7.112295 | 0.134084 |
3 | 0.155663 | 79.51105 | 13.49888 | 6.711822 | 0.278251 |
4 | 0.156729 | 78.62873 | 13.80305 | 7.257021 | 0.311202 |
5 | 0.160084 | 78.44338 | 13.23761 | 7.966028 | 0.352987 |
6 | 0.163419 | 78.89708 | 12.88941 | 7.824911 | 0.388597 |
7 | 0.165299 | 78.47688 | 13.08834 | 8.044011 | 0.390775 |
8 | 0.165630 | 78.23466 | 13.25014 | 8.125937 | 0.389263 |
9 | 0.166024 | 78.2619 | 13.24389 | 8.106213 | 0.388004 |
10 | 0.166714 | 78.27585 | 13.20672 | 8.128495 | 0.388932 |
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