关键词: 经济结构, 结构失衡, 经济增长, 空间计量模型, 东北地区

Abstract:

Along with the economy development goes into a new normal in China, the economic structure imbalance becomes one of highlighted economic problems, especially in Northeast China. This phenomenon has attracted wide attention from scholars and society. The state government points out that the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, are not only important measurements to promote healthy development of national economy, but also vital methods to prosper the economy in Northeast China. Therefore, it is of important academic significance and practical value to analyze economic structure imbalance and its influence on economic growth. Based on this, this study establishes an evaluation index of economic structure imbalance, including industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, financial structure, regional economic structure and international payments structure, explores level of economic structure and its spatial-temporal characteristics of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2015 by using factor analysis method and ArcGIS spatial analysis method. Due to the spatial effects of per capita GDP, then the paper sets up spatial econometrics models (including spatial lag model, spatial error model and spatial Durbin model) in order to explore the impact of economic structure imbalance on economic growth in Northeast China, which are different from traditional regression models ignoring space factors. The results show that: 1) Generally speaking, the economic structure in Northeast China is in imbalanced condition, but the level of imbalance is continuously decreasing. There is spatial heterogeneity in the level of imbalance, and the high level of imbalance area mainly concentrates in resource-based and old industrial cities. 2) High-value areas with imbalanced level of economic structure are surrounded by low-value areas, presenting a typical "core-periphery" distribution pattern in space. 3) Among three spatial econometrics models, the regression result obtained by spatial Durbin model is more convincing than the other two. The model reveals that the impact of economic structure imbalance is of a periodic characteristic. In the period of 2003 to 2008, it inhibits economic growth and generates significantly negative spillover effects. However, from 2009 to 2015, it promotes economic growth, that is “imbalance but growth”. The reasons for this seemingly contradictory are as followings: on one hand, from the previous analysis, the imbalance level of economic structure has been declining after adjustment, and appears a trend towards equilibrium. According to the principle of evolutionary economy, when the economic structure changes from imbalance to equilibrium, new drivers emerge and promote economic growth. On the other hand, in the Northeast China, the main driving forces for economic growth origin from the secondary, tertiary industry and investment, structure imbalance within a certain range can still stimulate economic growth weakly.

Key words: economic structure, structure imbalance, economic growth, spatial econometric model, Northeast China