地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 654-662.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.015
收稿日期:
2018-01-15
修回日期:
2018-04-12
出版日期:
2019-04-10
发布日期:
2019-04-10
作者简介:
作者简介:杨昆(1963-),男,云南曲靖人,教授,博导,研究方向为地理信息系统。E-mail:
基金资助:
Kun Yang1(), Yan Shi1(
), Yi Luo1, Dian Xia2
Received:
2018-01-15
Revised:
2018-04-12
Online:
2019-04-10
Published:
2019-04-10
Supported by:
摘要:
基于统计数据,采用Theil指数、线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验、面板数据模型,从中国、八大经济区域、各省3个尺度分析中国民用汽车拥有量的时空变化特征及其与地区生产总值、居民消费水平、公路里程的关系。结果表明:① 中国民用汽车拥有量的增长分两个阶段: 1996~2005年为缓慢增长期,2005~2015年为快速增长期;② 2000~2015年中国民用汽车拥有量地区分布差异显著下降,2000~2005年区域内总差异是总差异的主要成分,北部沿海地区区域内差异是区域内总差异的主要原因,2006~2015年区域间差异是总差异的主要成分;③ 在不同的时间阶段及空间尺度各因素对民用汽车拥有量发展的作用方向和作用强度呈现一定的差异性。
中图分类号:
杨昆, 时燕, 罗毅, 夏典. 经济快速发展背景下中国民用汽车拥有量变化的时空特征[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(4): 654-662.
Kun Yang, Yan Shi, Yi Luo, Dian Xia. Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Ownership Change of Civil Car in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(4): 654-662.
表1
中国各省民用汽车拥有量的趋势及突变检验结果"
区域 | 省份 | 突变时间 | 线性回归方程 | R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
北部沿海 | 山东 | 2005~2006 | y = 71.629x-268.900 | 0.836 |
河北 | 2005~2006 | y = 48.68x- 157.210 | 0.840 | |
北京市 | 2005~2006 | y = 28.558x-28.703 | 0.952 | |
天津市 | 2005~2006 | y = 13.39x-27.413 | 0.854 | |
东部沿海 | 江苏 | 2005~2006 | y = 58.641x-235.590 | 0.840 |
浙江 | 2005~2006 | y = 55.337x-216.610 | 0.869 | |
上海市 | 2005~2006 | y = 12.97x-14.588 | 0.936 | |
黄河中游 | 河南 | 2005~2006 | y = 43.877x-160.410 | 0.789 |
山西 | 2005~2006 | y = 22.067x- 61.320 | 0.874 | |
陕西 | 2005~2006 | y = 19.795x-71.686 | 0.805 | |
内蒙 | 2005~2006 | y = 18.035x- 60.807 | 0.853 | |
西南 | 四川 | 2005~2006 | y = 33.979x-106.200 | 0.827 |
云南 | 2005~2006 | y = 21.493x-56.431 | 0.841 | |
广西 | 2005~2006 | y = 16.128x-57.086 | 0.803 | |
贵州 | 2005~2006 | y = 12.337x-44.612 | 0.788 | |
重庆 | 2005~2006 | y = 11.968x-42.849 | 0.809 | |
南部沿海 | 广东 | 2005~2006 | y = 69.319x-181.410 | 0.897 |
福建 | 2005~2006 | y = 20.412x-76.640 | 0.844 | |
海南 | 2008~2009 | y = 3.6674x-9.8428 | 0.814 | |
长江中游 | 安徽 | 2005~2006 | y = 22.006x-79.384 | 0.821 |
湖南 | 2005~2006 | y = 21.823x-73.186 | 0.796 | |
湖北 | 2005~2006 | y = 20.988x-64.700 | 0.803 | |
山西 | 2005~2006 | y = 14.945x-57.502 | 0.800 | |
东北 | 辽宁 | 2006~2007 | y = 25.821x-56.724 | 0.848 |
黑龙江 | 2006~2007 | y = 15.974x-31.290 | 0.859 | |
吉林 | 2005~2006 | y = 14.011x-36.674 | 0.836 | |
西北 | 新疆 | 2005~2006 | y = 13.009x-35.861 | 0.797 |
甘肃 | 2006~2007 | y = 9.3993x-32.537 | 0.742 | |
宁夏 | 2005~2006 | y = 4.6055x-17.397 | 0.792 | |
青海 | 2006~2007 | y = 3.3268x-10.517 | 0.767 | |
西藏 | 2005~2006 | y = 1.4932x-3.2315 | 0.882 |
表2
中国民用汽车发展的空间差异变化趋势及突变检验"
差异类型 | 泰尔指 数均值 | 泰尔指数的M-K检验 | 2015年 | 贡献率M-K检验 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
倾向率 | 统计量 | 突变时间 | 趋势 | 泰尔指数 | 贡献率(%) | 倾向率 | 统计量 | |||||
T | 0.0591 | -0.0084 | -4.72*** | 2009~2015 | ↓ | 0.044 | 100 | - | - | |||
TW | 0.0516 | -0.0025 | -2.92*** | 2013~2014 | ↓ | 0.034 | 57.1 | 0.0247 | 5.35*** | |||
Tb | 0.1106 | -0.0057 | -5.26*** | 2008~2014 | ↓ | 0.010 | 42.9 | -0.0247 | 3.67*** | |||
Tk | 东北 | 0.0104 | 0.0001 | 0.85 | 2007~2011 | - | 0.010 | 2.1 | -0.00141 | -1.39* | ||
北部沿海 | 0.1432 | -0.0174 | -5.17*** | 2008~2014 | ↓ | 0.143 | 7.0 | -0.0203 | -5.08*** | |||
东部沿海 | 0.0329 | -0.0040 | -4.00*** | 2005~2015 | ↓ | 0.033 | 5.9 | 0.000565 | 2.74*** | |||
南部沿海 | 0.0265 | -0.0032 | -4.81*** | 2009~2015 | ↓ | 0.026 | 1.5 | -0.00232 | -4.18*** | |||
黄河中游 | 0.0312 | -0.0019 | -2.56*** | 2012~2015 | ↓ | 0.031 | 3.2 | 0.000419 | 0.85 | |||
长江中游 | 0.0045 | -0.0006 | -4.27*** | 2007~2008 | ↓ | 0.005 | 0.4 | -0.00023 | -2.83*** | |||
西南 | 0.0224 | -0.0026 | -4.90*** | 2008~2009 | ↓ | 0.022 | 1.5 | -0.0015 | -4.45*** | |||
西北 | 0.0527 | -0.0029 | -4.45*** | 2008~2009 | ↓ | 0.053 | 1.6 | 0.0001 | 0.49 |
表3
面板数据检验结果"
单位根检验 | 1996~2005年 | 2006~2015年 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
变量 | 检验方法 | ||||||||
LLC | IPS | ADF-Fisher | PP-Fisher | LLC | IPS | ADF-Fisher | PP-Fisher | ||
lnX1 | 4.23 | 5.18 | 11.82 | 16.46 | 1.88 | 4.93 | 10.78 | 7.55 | |
lnX2 | -8.15*** | 0.40 | 65.24 | 28.24 | -2.91*** | 2.18 | 34.36 | 23.44 | |
lnX3 | -21.64*** | 0.42 | 80.58*** | 78.53* | 17.04 | 0.62 | 2.59 | 0.15 | |
lnY | 8.66 | 5.14 | 5.14 | 6.37 | 2.44 | 3.06 | 29.44 | 33.11 | |
ΔlnX1 | -12.52*** | -1.41* | 99.78*** | 240.85*** | -13.99*** | -0.96 | 85.45** | 131.09*** | |
ΔlnX2 | -20.42*** | -2.89*** | 139.54*** | 213.77*** | -18.05*** | -1.91** | 107.16*** | 135.30*** | |
ΔlnX3 | -12.27*** | -1.02 | 88.80** | 161.36*** | -32.40*** | -3.56*** | 141.17*** | 173.82*** | |
ΔlnY | -10.48*** | -5.58*** | 157.35*** | 204.70*** | -29.89*** | -4.27*** | 162.89*** | 83.85** | |
协整检验 | pedroni检验 | Kao检验 | |||||||
统计量 时间 | Panel v -Statistic | Panel rho -Statistic | Panel PP -Statistic | Panel ADF -Statistic | Group rho -Statistic | Group PP -Statistic | Group ADF Statistic | ADF | |
1996~2005年 | -3.91 | 3.39 | -15.03*** | 1.19 | 6.14 | -20.95*** | -4.89*** | -2.88*** | |
2006~2015年 | -1.54 | 5.83 | -5.06*** | -5.15*** | 7.40 | -13.53*** | -7.37*** | -4.48*** |
表4
面板数据模型检验结果"
时间 | 变量 | 全国 及各省尺度 | 八大经济区域尺度 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z1 | Z2 | Z3 | Z4 | Z5 | Z6 | Z7 | Z8 | |||
1996~2005 | R2 | 0.988 | 0.987 | 0.991 | 0.988 | 0.983 | 0.995 | 0.974 | 0.956 | 0.976 |
F检验 | 74.27*** | 19.75*** | 55.18*** | 92.46*** | 7.73*** | 165.32*** | 46.21*** | 3.62** | 2.86* | |
Huasman检验 | 10.22*** | 89.87*** | 10.30*** | 277.38*** | 23.19*** | - | 138.63*** | - | - | |
结论 | ① | ① | ① | ① | ① | ① | ① | ② | ② | |
样本数 | 310 | 50 | 50 | 40 | 40 | 30 | 40 | 30 | 30 | |
2006~2015 | R2 | 0.994 | 0.980 | 0.991 | 0.989 | 0.990 | 0.999 | 0.983 | 0.995 | 0.985 |
F检验 | 233.07*** | 19.75*** | 55.18*** | 103.05*** | 5.32*** | 99.69*** | 40.16*** | 15.50*** | 1.26 | |
Huasman检验 | 14.38*** | 12.26*** | 10.30** | 346.61*** | 35.31*** | - | 135.11*** | - | - | |
结论 | ① | ① | ① | ① | ① | ① | ① | ① | ② | |
样本数 | 310 | 50 | 50 | 40 | 40 | 30 | 40 | 30 | 30 |
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