地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 654-662.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.04.015

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经济快速发展背景下中国民用汽车拥有量变化的时空特征

杨昆1(), 时燕1(), 罗毅1, 夏典2   

  1. 1. 云南师范大学信息学院/西部资源环境地理信息技术教育部工程研究中心, 云南 昆明 650500
    2. 云南师范大学数学学院, 云南 昆明 650500
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-15 修回日期:2018-04-12 出版日期:2019-04-10 发布日期:2019-04-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杨昆(1963-),男,云南曲靖人,教授,博导,研究方向为地理信息系统。E-mail: yangkun@ynnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41761084)、云南省自然科学基金青年项目(2016FD020)、云南师范大学研究生科研创新基金(yjs2018127)资助

Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Ownership Change of Civil Car in China

Kun Yang1(), Yan Shi1(), Yi Luo1, Dian Xia2   

  1. 1. School of Information Science and Technology, GIS Technology Engineering Research Centre for West-China Resources and Environment of Educational Ministry, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, China
    2. School of Mathematics, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, China
  • Received:2018-01-15 Revised:2018-04-12 Online:2019-04-10 Published:2019-04-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (41761084), Youth Project Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan (2016FD020), The Graduate Research Innovation Foundation of Yunnan Normal University (yjs2018127)

摘要:

基于统计数据,采用Theil指数、线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验、面板数据模型,从中国、八大经济区域、各省3个尺度分析中国民用汽车拥有量的时空变化特征及其与地区生产总值、居民消费水平、公路里程的关系。结果表明: 中国民用汽车拥有量的增长分两个阶段: 1996~2005年为缓慢增长期,2005~2015年为快速增长期; 2000~2015年中国民用汽车拥有量地区分布差异显著下降,2000~2005年区域内总差异是总差异的主要成分,北部沿海地区区域内差异是区域内总差异的主要原因,2006~2015年区域间差异是总差异的主要成分; 在不同的时间阶段及空间尺度各因素对民用汽车拥有量发展的作用方向和作用强度呈现一定的差异性。

关键词: 民用汽车, 时空特征, 经济因素, 中国

Abstract:

With the rapid development of economy, the number of China's motor vehicle rises sharply. The rapid development of the auto industry promotes the social civilization, and drives the sustained economic growth. Cars improve the efficiency of people’s traveling, at the same time, they bring some problems such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, energy consumption, which directly threat to human health and the sustainable development of social economy. To explore the temporal variation characteristics of civilian cars under the background of China’s rapid economic growth ownership is the basis to solve the problem such as traffic congestion, traffic accidents, car exhaust, it is also the premise of auto industry development and applicable policy. This article reveal the temporal variation characteristics of Chinese civil car ownership and differences, explore the relationship between the civil car ownership change and economic development. With the the number of civil car ownership, gross regional product, household consumption level, highway mileage and provinces population data in 31 provincial level administrative region in mainland China from 1996 to 2015, the empirical research is conducted by adopting Theil index, the linear trend estimation indicates, Mann - Kendall test and panel data mode, respectively, based on the national, the eight economic regions, and 31 provinces three spatial dimensions. The preliminary results shows that: 1) The scope of research and the continuous growth of China's car ownership can be divided into two stages: the first stage, 1996-2005, for the slow growth; The second stage, from 2005 to 2015, is for rapid growth; 2) From 2000 to 2015, China's civil car ownership regional differences declined obviously in 2000-2005, the differences of China’s civil car ownership in 31 provinces regions are determined by differences of within-region, and differences in Northern coastal areas are the main cause of regional differences; The differences of between-region were greater than the differences of within-region in 2006-2015; 3) In the research time range, the gross regional product, residents' consumption level, and highway mileage can improve the number of civil car ownership, and there are significant differences in the influence of three factors on the civil car ownership.

Key words: civil car ownership, spatial-temporal characteristics, economic factors, China

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9