地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 701-709.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.05.004
胡美娟1,2, 李在军3, 丁正山2(), 周年兴2, 郭向阳2, 李欣2
收稿日期:
2019-04-18
修回日期:
2019-07-11
出版日期:
2020-05-10
发布日期:
2020-08-18
通讯作者:
丁正山
E-mail:dingzhengshan@263.net
作者简介:
胡美娟(1991-),女,湖北黄冈人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为生态经济。E-mail: 基金资助:
Hu Meijuan1,2, Li Zaijun3, Ding zhengshan2(), Zhou Nianxing2, Guo Xiangyang2, Li Xin2
Received:
2019-04-18
Revised:
2019-07-11
Online:
2020-05-10
Published:
2020-08-18
Contact:
Ding zhengshan
E-mail:dingzhengshan@263.net
Supported by:
摘要:
基于资源消耗和环境污染视角构建城市资源环境压力评价指标体系,探讨2000-2017年泛长三角城市资源环境压力时空演化特征及城镇化的门槛效应与作用机理。研究发现: ① 泛长三角地区资源环境压力呈逐年递增趋势,以“快速-中速-慢速”的节奏持续走高; ② 各城市资源环境压力均不同程度由低压力向高压力类型演替,并呈现“东高西低、南高北低”格局; ③ 经济增长、工业化水平及人口密度存在显著门槛效应,消费水平、固定资产投资、进出口贸易对资源环境压力具有显著正向作用,能源强度降低和技术创新水平提高有利于减轻资源环境压力,而环境规制和能源消费的影响作用不显著。
中图分类号:
胡美娟, 李在军, 丁正山, 周年兴, 郭向阳, 李欣. 泛长三角城市资源环境压力演化特征及门槛效应[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 701-709.
Hu Meijuan, Li Zaijun, Ding zhengshan, Zhou Nianxing, Guo Xiangyang, Li Xin. The Evolution Characteristics and Threshold Effects of the Resource and Environmental Pressure in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta Cities[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(5): 701-709.
表1
泛长三角城市门槛变量的的门槛值估计与检验"
门槛变量 | 门槛数 | 门槛值 | F值 | P值 | 1% | 5% | 10% | 95%置信区间 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
经济发展 | 单一 | 9233元 | 37.280 | 0.003 | 49.960 | 38.430 | 29.303 | (8862, 10569) |
双重 | 93107元 | 72.260 | 0.046 | 49.935 | 35.326 | 28.254 | (92604, 93779) | |
工业化 | 单一 | 44.60% | 38.800 | 0.026 | 44.821 | 31.792 | 24.398 | (42.10%, 44.90%) |
人口密度 | 单一 | 745.271人/km2 | 76.540 | 0.001 | 74.910 | 54.604 | 47.199 | (740.484, 758.984) |
表2
泛长三角城市各变量门槛效应的回归结果"
变量 | 消费水平 | 固定资产投资 | 环境规制 | 外贸依存度 | 能源强度 | 城镇化-1 | 城镇化-2 | 城镇化-3 | 常数 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
经济发展 | 0.048** (-2.02) | 0.043** (-2.04) | -0.011 (-0.25) | 0.165*** (-2.90) | -0.162*** (-2.92) | -0.365*** (-5.81) | 0.112** (-2.46) | -0.134*** (-4.11) | 0.243*** (-14.76) |
工业化 | 0.076*** (-2.93) | 0.123*** (-6.21) | -0.054 (-1.16) | 0.131** (-2.19) | -0.175*** (-3.00) | 0.120*** (-3.44) | 0.210*** (-6.05) | - | 0.169*** (-10.13) |
人口密度 | 0.035** (-2.46) | 0.150*** (-7.75) | -0.033 (-0.73) | 0.056* (-1.88) | -0.087*** (-3.51) | 0.096*** (-3.80) | 0.318*** (-8.46) | - | 0.169*** (-10.48) |
[1] | 佟连军, 张明祥. 辽中南地区经济发展与资源环境关系[J]. 地理科学, 1999,19(6):517-520. |
[ Tong Lianjun, Zhang Mingxiang. The relationship between economic development and resources and environment in Central and Southern Liaoning. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1999,19(6):517-520.] | |
[2] |
Hartman R, Kwon O S. Sustainable growth and the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005,29(10):1701-1736.
doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2004.10.001 |
[3] |
Orubu C O, Omotor D G. Environmental quality and economic growth: Searching for environmental Kuznets curves for air and water pollutants in Africa[J]. Energy Policy, 2011,39(7):4178-4188.
doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.025 |
[4] | Schandl H, Hatfield D S, Wiedmann T et al. Decoupling global environmental pressure and economic growth: Scenarios for energy use, materials use and carbon emissions[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016,132:45-56. |
[5] |
Fang C L, Ren Y F. Analysis of energy-based metabolic efficiency and environmental pressure on the local coupling and telecoupling between urbanization and the eco-environment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2017,60(6):1083-1097.
doi: 10.1007/s11430-016-9038-6 |
[6] | 黄金川, 方创琳. 城市化与生态环境交互耦合机制与规律性分析[J]. 地理研究, 2003,22(2):211-220. |
[ Huang Jinchuan, Fang Chuanglin. Interaction coupling mechanism and regularity analysis of urbanization and ecological environment. Geographical Research, 2003,22(2):211-220.] | |
[7] |
刘贺贺, 杨青山, 张郁. 东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩分析[J]. 地理科学, 2016,36(12):1860-1869.
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.12.011 |
[ Liu Hehe, Yang Qingshan, Zhang Yu. Urbanization and ecological environment effect in Northeast China based on decoupling analysis. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016,36(12):1860-1869.] | |
[8] |
Wu W H, Niu S W. Impact study on human activity to the resource-environment based on the consumption level difference of China's provinces or autonomous regions[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2008,18(4):121-127.
doi: 10.1016/S1872-583X(09)60015-2 |
[9] |
Li G L, Zhao Y, Cui S H. Effects of urbanization on arable land requirements in China, based on food consumption patterns[J]. Food Security, 2013,5(3):439-449.
doi: 10.1007/s12571-013-0265-9 |
[10] |
Cheng X, Chen L D, Sun R H et al. Identification of regional water resource stress based on water quantity and quality: A case study in a rapid urbanization region of China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019,209:216-223.
doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.10.175 |
[11] |
Rigina O. Environmental impact assessment of the mining and concentration activities in the Kola Peninsula, Russia by multidate remote sensing[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2002,75(1):11-31.
doi: 10.1023/A:1014292201540 pmid: 15900663 |
[12] |
胡志强, 苗健铭, 苗长虹. 中国地市工业集聚与污染排放的空间特征及计量检验[J]. 地理科学, 2018,38(2):168-176.
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.02.002 |
[ Hu Zhiqiang, Miao Jianming, Miao Changhong. Spatial characteristics and measurement of industrial agglomeration and pollution emission in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018,38(2):168-176.] | |
[13] | 吴永华, 徐莉, 朱同斌. 电力工业的发展与资源-环境的脱钩关系研究[J]. 中国经济问题, 2012(4):78-86. |
[ Wu Yonghua, Xu Li, Zhu Tongbin. Decoupling research on resource-environment change from electricity growth. China Economic Studies, 2012(4):78-86.] | |
[14] |
白景锋, 张海军. 中国水-能源-粮食压力时空变动及驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2018,38(10):1653-1660.
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.10.009 |
[ Bai Jingfeng, Zhang Haijun. Spatial and temporal variation and driving force analysis of water-energy-food pressure in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018,38(10):1653-1660.] | |
[15] | 王强, 伍世代, 李婷婷. 中国工业经济转型过程中能源消费与碳排放时空特征研究[J]. 地理科学, 2011,31(1):36-41. |
[ Wang Qiang, Wu Shidai, Li Tingting. Spatio-temporal characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in industry sector during the period of economic transition in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011,31(1):36-41.] | |
[16] | 石敏俊, 郑丹, 雷平, 等. 中国工业水污染排放的空间格局及结构演变研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2017,27(5):1-7. |
[ Shi Minjun, Zheng Dan, Lei Ping et al. Evolution of spatial pattern of industrial waste-water pollution emission in China. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017,27(5):1-7.] | |
[17] |
刘海猛, 方创琳, 黄解军, 等. 京津冀城市群大气污染的时空特征与影响因素解析[J]. 地理学报, 2018,73(1):177-191.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201801015 |
[ Liu Haimeng, Fang Chaunglin, Huang Jiejun et al. The spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018,73(1):177-191.] | |
[18] |
郭莎莎, 陈明星, 刘慧. 城镇化与资源环境的耦合过程与解耦分析——以北京为例[J]. 地理研究, 2018,37(8):1599-1608.
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201808010 |
[ Guo Shasha, Chen Mingxing, Liu Hui. Coupling procedure and decoupling analysis of urbanization and resource environment: The study of Beijing. Geographical Research, 2018,37(8):1599-1608.] | |
[19] | 王红霞. 泛长三角边界之争[J]. 中国改革, 2007,22(10):41-43. |
[ Wang Hongxia. The boundary battle of Pan-Yangtze River Delta. China Reform, 2007,22(10):41-43.] | |
[20] |
Chen M X, Lu D D, Zha L S. The comprehensive evaluation of China’s urbanization and effects on resources and environment[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010,20(1):17-30.
doi: 10.1007/s11442-010-0017-0 |
[21] |
Hohmann A, Albrecht S, Lindner J P et al. Resource efficiency and environmental impact of fiber reinforced plastic processing technologies[J]. Production Engineering, 2018,12(3-4):405-417.
doi: 10.1007/s11740-018-0802-7 |
[22] |
Rigina O. Environmental impact assessment of the mining and concentration activities in the Kola Peninsula, Russia by multi-date remote sensing[J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 2002,75(1):11-31.
doi: 10.1023/A:1014292201540 pmid: 15900663 |
[23] | Chen S J, Hwang C L. Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making: Methods and applications[M]. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1992. |
[24] |
Hansen B E. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1999,93(2):345-368.
doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(99)00025-1 |
[25] |
Wang Q Y. Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata[J]. The Stata Journal, 2015,15(1):121-134.
doi: 10.1177/1536867X1501500108 |
[26] | 严翔, 成长春, 易高峰, 等. 长江经济带城镇化对能源消费的经济门槛效应[J]. 经济地理, 2019,39(1):73-81. |
[ Yan Xiang, Cheng Changchun, Yi Gaofeng et al. Economic threshold effect of urbanization on energy consumption: Take the Yangtze River Economic Zone as an example. Economic Geography, 2019,39(1):73-81.] | |
[27] | 上海市统计局, 国家统计局上海调查总队. 上海统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2018. |
[ Shanghai Statistical Bureau, Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Shanghai. Shanghai statistical yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2001-2018.] | |
[28] | 江苏省统计局, 国家统计局江苏调查总队. 江苏统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2018. |
[ Jiangsu Statistical Bureau, Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Jiangsu. Jiangsu statistical yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2001-2018.] | |
[29] | 浙江省统计局, 国家统计局浙江调查总队. 浙江统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2018. |
[ Zhejiang Statistical Bureau, Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Zhejiang. Zhejiang statistical yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2001-2018.] | |
[30] | 安徽省统计局, 国家统计局安徽调查总队. 安徽统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2001-2018. |
[ Anhui Statistical Bureau, Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Anhui. Anhui statistical yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2001-2018.] | |
[31] |
周笑, 王鹏飞. 中国工业发展的资源环境压力空间分异演化及影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2018,37(8):1541-1557.
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201808006 |
[ Zhou Xiao, Wang Pengfei. Spatial evolution and influencing factors of industrial resources and environmental pressures in Chinese cities. Geographical Research, 2018,37(8):1541-1557.] | |
[32] |
蔺雪芹, 郭一鸣, 王岱. 中国工业资源环境效率空间演化特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2019,39(3):377-386.
doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.03.003 |
[ Lin Xueqin, Guo Yiming, Wang Dai. Spatial evolution and influencing factors of industrial resource and environmental efficiency in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019,39(3):377-386.] |
[1] | 洪学婷, 黄震方, 陈晓艳, 徐冬. 场所叙事视角下乡愁的多维解构与影响机理——基于新民谣歌词与评论的分析[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(1): 55-63. |
[2] | 黄莘绒, 管卫华, 陈明星, 胡昊宇. 长三角城市群城镇化与生态环境质量优化研究[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(1): 64-73. |
[3] | 熊建新, 王文辉, 贺赛花, 尹妍, 唐朝凤. 洞庭湖区旅游城镇化系统耦合协调性时空格局及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(9): 1532-1542. |
[4] | 王富喜. 山东半岛城市群人口−土地城镇化质量测度与协调发展研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(8): 1345-1354. |
[5] | 罗小龙, 曹姝君, 顾宗倪. 回流城镇化:中部地区城镇化开启新路径[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 685-690. |
[6] | 叶超, 于洁. 迈向城乡融合:新型城镇化与乡村振兴结合研究的关键与趋势[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(4): 528-534. |
[7] | 范斐, 连欢, 王雪利, 王嵩. 区域协同创新对创新绩效的影响机制研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 165-172. |
[8] | 周李, 吴殿廷, 虞虎, 王永明, 马腾, 胡灿. 基于网络游记的城市旅游流网络结构演化研究——以北京市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 298-307. |
[9] | 刘敏, 姜会明, 姜天龙. 农机投入对农业GTFP影响及门槛效应的区域差异分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 2037-2045. |
[10] | 杨水根, 王露. 湖南省武陵山片区人口城镇化与流通产业发展协同演化及其减贫效应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(11): 1909-1920. |
[11] | 朱纪广, 许家伟, 李小建, 娄帆, 陈玉蓉. 中国土地城镇化和人口城镇化对经济增长影响效应分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(10): 1654-1662. |
[12] | 林李月, 朱宇, 柯文前. 居住选择对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响——基于一项对福建省流动人口的调查[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(9): 1464-1472. |
[13] | 顾朝林,曹根榕. 基于城镇化发展趋势的中国交通网战略布局[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(6): 865-873. |
[14] | 杜群阳, 俞航东. 2003~2015年中国城市劳动力技能互补、收入水平与人口城镇化[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(4): 525-532. |
[15] | 范建双, 周琳. 城镇化及房地产投资对中国碳排放的影响机制及效应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(4): 644-653. |
|