泛长三角城市资源环境压力演化特征及门槛效应

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.05.004

地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 701-709.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.05.004

泛长三角城市资源环境压力演化特征及门槛效应

胡美娟¹^,², 李在军³, 丁正山²(), 周年兴², 郭向阳², 李欣²

1.扬州大学旅游烹饪学院, 江苏扬州 225127
2.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏南京 210023
3.扬州大学苏中发展研究院, 江苏扬州 225009

收稿日期:2019-04-18 修回日期:2019-07-11 出版日期:2020-05-10 发布日期:2020-08-18
通讯作者: 丁正山 E-mail:dingzhengshan@263.net
作者简介:胡美娟（1991-）,女,湖北黄冈人,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为生态经济。E-mail: humeijuan156@163.com
基金资助:
江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX19_0763);国家自然科学基金项目(41671140)

The Evolution Characteristics and Threshold Effects of the Resource and Environmental Pressure in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta Cities

Hu Meijuan¹^,², Li Zaijun³, Ding zhengshan²(), Zhou Nianxing², Guo Xiangyang², Li Xin²

1. School of Tourism and Culinary Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225127, Jiangsu, China
2. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
3. Research Institute of Central Jiangsu Development, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, Jiangsu, China

Received:2019-04-18 Revised:2019-07-11 Online:2020-05-10 Published:2020-08-18
Contact: Ding zhengshan E-mail:dingzhengshan@263.net
Supported by:
Graduate Student Scientific Research Innovation Projects in Jiangsu Province(KYCX19_0763);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41671140)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于资源消耗和环境污染视角构建城市资源环境压力评价指标体系,探讨2000-2017年泛长三角城市资源环境压力时空演化特征及城镇化的门槛效应与作用机理。研究发现： ① 泛长三角地区资源环境压力呈逐年递增趋势,以“快速-中速-慢速”的节奏持续走高; ② 各城市资源环境压力均不同程度由低压力向高压力类型演替,并呈现“东高西低、南高北低”格局; ③ 经济增长、工业化水平及人口密度存在显著门槛效应,消费水平、固定资产投资、进出口贸易对资源环境压力具有显著正向作用,能源强度降低和技术创新水平提高有利于减轻资源环境压力,而环境规制和能源消费的影响作用不显著。

关键词: 资源环境压力, 城镇化, 演化特征, 门槛效应, 泛长三角

Abstract:

It is an important subject regarding sustainable urban development to promote and influence the coordination between ongoing economic development and the natural environment. From the perspective of resource consumption and environmental pollution, this article builds the evaluation index system of the urban resource and environmental pressure exploring the spatial and temporal characteristics of urban environmental pressure in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region between 2000 and 2017. It also analyzes the threshold effects and mechanism of industrialization upon environmental pressure, based on the use of the panel threshold regression model. This paper has concluded three findings as follows. Firstly, the pressure in the region were experiencing a steady annual increase, with its growth rate following the rhythm of fast-medium-slow. Secondly, the environmental pressure of all cities had seen a steady increase year on year, though to varying degrees and at significantly different growth rates: the growth rates of economically backward areas were much faster than that of the economically developed cities. The cities with different types of environmental pressure formed the layout of extending from low pressure areas to high pressure areas, with the general pattern of ‘higher in the east and south, whilst lower in the west and north’. Thirdly, as the panel threshold regression model clearly shows, a significant threshold effect had taken place with regards to Economic growth, industrialization, population density. Consumption level, fixed asset investment, import and export trade exert a remarkable positive effect on environmental pressure. The reduction of energy intensity and the improvement of technological innovation are conducive to the reduction of pressure on resources and environment, whilst environmental regulation and energy consumption show no sign of a significant impact.

Key words: resource and environment pressure, urbanization, evolutionary characteristics, threshold effect, the Pan-Yangtze River Delta

中图分类号:

F205

胡美娟, 李在军, 丁正山, 周年兴, 郭向阳, 李欣. 泛长三角城市资源环境压力演化特征及门槛效应[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 701-709.

Hu Meijuan, Li Zaijun, Ding zhengshan, Zhou Nianxing, Guo Xiangyang, Li Xin. The Evolution Characteristics and Threshold Effects of the Resource and Environmental Pressure in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta Cities[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(5): 701-709.

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门槛变量	门槛数	门槛值	F值	P值	1%	5%	10%	95%置信区间
经济发展	单一	9233元	37.280	0.003	49.960	38.430	29.303	（8862, 10569）
经济发展	双重	93107元	72.260	0.046	49.935	35.326	28.254	(92604, 93779)
工业化	单一	44.60%	38.800	0.026	44.821	31.792	24.398	（42.10%, 44.90%）
人口密度	单一	745.271人/km²	76.540	0.001	74.910	54.604	47.199	(740.484, 758.984)

变量	消费水平	固定资产投资	环境规制	外贸依存度	能源强度	城镇化-1	城镇化-2	城镇化-3	常数
经济发展	0.048^** (-2.02)	0.043^** (-2.04)	-0.011 (-0.25)	0.165^*** (-2.90)	-0.162^*** (-2.92)	-0.365^*** (-5.81)	0.112^** (-2.46)	-0.134^*** (-4.11)	0.243^*** (-14.76)
工业化	0.076^*** (-2.93)	0.123^*** (-6.21)	-0.054 (-1.16)	0.131^** (-2.19)	-0.175^*** (-3.00)	0.120^*** (-3.44)	0.210^*** (-6.05)	-	0.169^*** (-10.13)
人口密度	0.035^** (-2.46)	0.150^*** (-7.75)	-0.033 (-0.73)	0.056^* (-1.88)	-0.087^*** (-3.51)	0.096^*** (-3.80)	0.318^*** (-8.46)	-	0.169^*** (-10.48)

泛长三角城市资源环境压力演化特征及门槛效应

The Evolution Characteristics and Threshold Effects of the Resource and Environmental Pressure in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta Cities

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