1961-2016年渭河流域极端降水事件研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.05.018

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1961-2016 年渭河流域26 个气象站点的逐日降水数据,选取与极端降水事件密切相关的9 个指数,利用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变点检验和方差分析等方法,揭示渭河流域极端降水事件的变化趋势、突变情况以及渭河流域上、中、下游降水情况的差异特征,对研究区未来极端降水事件提供科学预测和理论参考。结果表明：① 渭河流域上、中、下游地区及整个流域的年总降水量分别以16.588 mm/10a、8.319 mm/10a、6.703 mm/10a和9.544 mm/10a的速率下降,表明渭河流域56 a来降水总量存在逐年减少的趋势,整个渭河流域地区呈现变干的趋势。② 降水强度(SDII)、强降水总量(R95PTOT)和极端降水总量(R99PTOT)在整体上均呈现上升趋势,极端降水总量的上升趋势高于强降水总量,上游地区的上升趋势高于中下游地区,表明渭河流域极端降水强度有所增强,极端降水事件发生频率有所增大。③ 渭河流域出现极端降水事件的年份集中在20世纪90年代和21世纪初期,且降水情况的年际差异较大,中游地区的变化更为明显。④ 相关分析显示中下游地区对整个流域极端降水事件的发生情况起到较大的贡献。

关键词: 渭河流域, 极端降水, Mann-Kendall检验

Abstract:

Based on 26 of the Weihe River Basin from 1961 to 2016 in the daily precipitation data of weather stations, the selection is closely related to the extreme precipitation events 9 index, using the method of linear trend, Mann Kendall mutation point test and variance analysis, reveals the tendency of the extreme precipitation events, mutation of the Weihe River Basin and on, the precipitation of the middle and lower reaches of Weihe River Basin the differences of characteristics of extreme precipitation events for the study area in the future to provide scientific prediction and theory reference. The results showed that: 1) The annual total precipitation in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Weihe River Basin and the whole basin decreased at the rates of 16.588 mm/10a, 8.319 mm/10a, 6.703 mm/10a and 9.544 mm/10a, respectively, indicating that the total precipitation in the Weihe River Basin has been decreasing year by year in the past 56 years, and the whole Weihe river Basin has been drying up. 2) Precipitation intensity (SDII), heavy rain amount (R95PTOT) and extreme precipitation amount (R99PTOT) tend to rise on the whole, extreme precipitation amount rise higher than the strong precipitation, rise higher than the middle and lower reaches area of the upstream region, shows that the strength of the Weihe River Basin in extreme precipitation increased, the extreme precipitation event frequency is increased. 3) The years of extreme precipitation events in the Weihe River Basin were concentrated in the 1990s and the early 21st century, and the inter-annual differences in precipitation were large, with more obvious changes in the middle reaches. 4) According to the results of relevant analysis, it is concluded that the middle and lower reaches of the basin to the occurrence of extreme precipitation events play a greater role.

Key words: the Weihe River Basin, extreme precipitation, Mann-Kendall Test

中图分类号:

K903

周旗, 张海宁, 任源鑫. 1961-2016年渭河流域极端降水事件研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 833-841.

Zhou Qi, Zhang Haining, Ren Yuanxin. Extreme Precipitation Events in the Weihe River Basin from 1961 to 2016[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(5): 833-841.

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序号	名称	极端降水指数	物理意义	单位
1	CWD	持续湿润指数	日降水量≥1 mm的最大持续日数	d
2	SDII	降水强度	日降水量≥1 mm的总降水量与降水日数的比值	mm/d
3	PRCPTOT	年总降水量	年雨（雪）日降水量之和	mm
4	R10mm	强降水日数	年日降水量≥10 mm的日数	d
5	R25mm	大雨日数	年日降水量≥20 mm的日数	d
6	Rx1day	1 d最大降水量	年日降水量的最大值	mm
7	Rx5day	5 d最大降水量	年5 d连续日降水量的最大值	mm
8	R95PTOT	强降水总量	日降水量>95%分位值的总降水量	mm
9	R99PTOT	极端降水总量	日降水量>99%分位值的总降水量	mm

指数	上游		中游		下游		全流域
指数	斜率	突变年份	斜率	突变年份	斜率	突变年份	斜率	突变年份
CWD	-0.0162 ^*	1976	0.0341^*	1969	-0.0234 ^*	1974	-0.0171 ^*	1976
SDII	-0.0092	1968	0.0078	1969	0.0098	1989、2000	0.0047	1986
PRCPTOT	-1.6588	1969、1985	-0.8319	2010	-0.6703	1985	-0.9544	1985
R10mm	-0.0683 ^*	1985	-0.0534 ^*	1977	-0.0333^*	1972	-0.0483^*	1969
R25mm	-0.018	2015	-0.0138	2013	0.0013	2003	-0.0049	2008
RX1day	-0.0719 ^*	1982	0.1883 ^*	1993	0.1210 ^**	1993	0.0998^*	1993
RX5day	-0.076	1982	0.1088 ^*	1977	0.0622	1976	0.0464^*	1978
R95PTOT	-0.6509	2003	0.4345	2008	0.2684	2003	0.1137	2003
R99PTOT	-0.2172 ^**	1982、2005	0.5879 ^*	1998	0.3225 ^*	1999	0.2898 ^*	1998

流域划分	R99PTOT	CWD	R10mm	RX1day
上游	0.523	0.778	0.675	0.546
中游	0.912	0.959	0.947	0.894
下游	0.791	0.938	0.942	0.766