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### 湖北省手足口病流行的地理特征及其影响因子

1. 1. 华中师范大学可持续发展研究中心/地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室，湖北 武汉 430079
2. 湖北省疾病预防控制中心，湖北 武汉 430079
• 收稿日期:2019-06-20 出版日期:2020-06-01 发布日期:2020-12-07
• 作者简介:龚胜生（1965−），男，湖南涟源人，教授，博导，主要研究健康地理、历史地理和可持续发展。E-mail： shshgong@mail.ccnu.edu.cn
• 基金资助:
湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目（2016CFA026）资助

### Geographical Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Prevalence of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Hubei Province

Gong Shengsheng1(), Wang Wuwei1, Chen Hongying2, Huang Jianwu1

1. 1. Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation of Hubei Province, Institute of Sustainable Development, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, China
2. Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, China
• Received:2019-06-20 Online:2020-06-01 Published:2020-12-07
• Supported by:
The Project for Creative Research Groups of Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (2016CFA026).

Abstract:

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major national infectious disease in recent years, and the incidence rate of HFMD in Hubei is the most serious in Central China. The study of HFMD in Hubei mainly focus on epidemiology, however, spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors have not been analyzed, and the spatial and temporal scales of the study are relatively rough. In this paper, the methods of geospatial analysis and statistics analysis are used. We aim to reveal the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of HFMD in Hubei from 2009 to 2016. Based on the case and incidence rate of HFMD and 11 indicators both in natural and economic factors, the matrix of 11 times 103 was built. The population distribution and seasonal variation of HFMD were collected by statistical methods. Then the correlation between incidence rate of HFMD and all kinds of influencing factors was analyzed. Then Moran index was used to identify the overall distribution of HFMD, and GETIS-ord index was used to measure the cold and hot spots of HFMD in Hubei. The spatial differentiation of HFMD incidence were explored by geodetector and geographically weighted regression model (GWR). The Results are as follows: 1) HFMD mainly primarily affects children under the age of 5 years, especially for 1 year old. While the incidence of HFMD in males is generally higher than that in females; the incidence of HFMD in women over 25 years old are higher than men of the same age. 2) The first incidence peak occurred from April to July, the second incidence peak occurred in November. The incidence is highest in May and the lowest in February. 3) HFMD is more prevalent in urban areas than in rural areas, and it is mainly distributed along the A-shaped urban skeleton. 4) The main meteorological factors like humidity, precipitation, temperature mainly affect the seasonal variation of HFMD, while the main socioeconomic factors like the number of beds per thousand and urbanization rate affect the inter-annual variation and spatial differentiation of HFMD. The prevalence of HFMD in underdeveloped areas is much more affected by economic factors. The incidence rate of HFMD is higher in Hubei province. Using mathematical statistics and geographical spatial analysis, this article analyzed the population characteristics, spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of HFMD epidemic in Hubei from 2009 to 2016. The results showed the population characteristics with two peak ages of 0?5 and 25?30, and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics with ‘hot spots’ and ‘cold spots’. Because the OLS regression analysis has not considered spatial heterogeneity, combined with geodetector and geographical weighted regression, the regional disparity of incidence rate of HFMD can be analyzed in counties of Hubei. It can provide policy suggestions for the surveillance and control of HFMD in Hubei.

• K901.1