浙江省人口健康脆弱性评估及影响因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.08.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用集对分析法从敏感性和应对性2个方面对浙江省11个地市的人口健康脆弱性进行评估。研究表明：① 从敏感性和应对性2个维度对城市人口健康脆弱性进行评估的方法具有一定可靠性，但在突发大型流行性病毒感染疫情的情境下仍需进一步完善；② 各地市脆弱性指数排名与敏感性指数保持较高一致性，而与应对性指数则表现出异质性和随机性，认为降低敏感性是降低城市人口健康脆弱性指数的关键；③ 城市人口健康脆弱性评价还应该增加城市对大型突发公共卫生事件的敏感性和应对能力的考量，相应的评估方法和模型仍有待进一步研究。

关键词: 人口健康, 脆弱性评估, 集对分析, 障碍因素

Abstract:

Population health vulnerability has gradually become a new hotspot in the field of vulnerability research. Reducing the urban population health vulnerability and improving the population health resilience are not only important to the connotations of building healthy city, but also an important support to enhance the ability to respond to urban public health emergencies. This paper use authoritative data such as statistical yearbooks and government statistical bulletins to build a population health vulnerability assessment index system from the two dimensions of population health sensitivity and coping. Using the set pair analysis method to evaluate the health vulnerability of 11 cities in Zhejiang Province from three aspects: degree of identity, degree of difference and degree of opposition. The research shows that: 1) The ranking of the vulnerability index of each city maintains a high consistency with the sensitivity index, and shows heterogeneity and randomness with the coping index. 2) From the perspective of the overall trend, the impact of sensitivity on the vulnerability index is greater than coping index, indicating that attention should be paid to sensitivity indicators in constructing healthy cities, and reducing sensitivity is the key to reducing the urban population's health vulnerability index. 3) The main factors influencing the health vulnerability of the urban population tend to be the same, but the core leading factors are different. In the process of constructing a healthy city, the corresponding construction measures should be proposed on the basis of full evaluation and research. 4) Sensitivity and response capability to large public health emergencies should be taken into account in the assessment of urban population health vulnerability.

Key words: population health, vulnerability assessment, set pair analysis, obstacle factor

中图分类号:

C913.6

童磊, 郑珂, 苏飞, 汤青, 曹轶蓉, 郑艳艳. 浙江省人口健康脆弱性评估及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(8): 1293-1299.

Tong Lei, Zheng Ke, Su Fei, Tang Qing, Cao Yirong, Zheng Yanyan. Analysis of Population Health Vulnerability Assessment and Influencing Factors in Zhejiang Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(8): 1293-1299.

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目标层	准侧层	代码	指标层	指标含义	权重
区域人口健康脆弱性	敏感性（+）	S1	60岁及以上人口所占比重（%）	反映地区人口年龄结构（+）	0.0504
		S2	15岁及以上人口文盲率（%）	反映地区人口受教育水平（+）	0.0826
		S3	甲乙类传染病发病率（1/10万）	反映地区卫生防疫水平（+）	0.0556
		S4	孕产妇死亡率（1/10万）	反映地区妇女保健情况（+）	0.0634
		S5	5岁以下儿童死亡率（‰）	反映地区儿童保健情况（+）	0.0360
		S6	门、急诊诊疗人次（1/10万）	反映地区个体健康状况（+）	0.0927
		S7	人均废水排放总量（t/人）	反映地区水环境质量状况（+）	0.0471
		S8	人均工业废气排放量（m³/人）	反映地区大气质量状况（+）	0.0692
		S9	年末城镇人口比重（%）	反映地区城市化水平（?）	0.0356
	应对性（?）	R1	人均GDP（元/人）	反映地区经济发展水平（+）	0.0895
		R2	建成区绿化覆盖率（%）	反映地区环境承载能力（+）	0.0452
		R3	城镇居民基本医疗保险参保率（%）	反映地区个体健康投入状况（+）	0.0542
		R4	人均可支配收入（元/人）	反映地区居民生活水平（+）	0.0445
		R5	人均财政医疗卫生支出（元/人）	反映政府医疗卫生投入强度（+）	0.0651
		R6	人均财政环境保护支出（元/人）	反映地区环境保护能力（+）	0.0624
		R7	人均财政社会保障和就业支出（元/人）	反映地区社会保障水平（+）	0.0524
		R8	医疗机构床位数（张/10³人）	反映地区医疗服务可及性（+）	0.0541

城市	敏感性指数	应对性指数	脆弱性指数	等级
绍兴市	0.4091	0.4633	0.4741	低
台州市	0.5683	0.5778	0.5329	低
杭州市	0.7077	0.5724	0.5624	中等
温州市	0.6670	0.6063	0.5909	中等
湖州市	0.7561	0.5156	0.6234	较高
嘉兴市	0.7590	0.5466	0.6344	较高
衢州市	0.7572	0.6297	0.6357	较高
宁波市	0.7995	0.4206	0.6376	较高
金华市	0.8144	0.5423	0.7012	高
丽水市	0.8290	0.6822	0.7030	高
舟山市	0.8584	0.4383	0.7178	高

城市	第一障碍因子	障碍度	第二障碍因子	障碍度	第三障碍因子	障碍度	第四障碍因子	障碍度	第五障碍因子	障碍度
杭州市	S6	14.14	R1	13.66	R6	9.52	R3	8.27	R8	8.26
宁波市	R1	16.27	S8	12.99	S6	11.41	R7	10.14	S7	9.98
温州市	S2	28.96	R4	14.00	S5	13.45	R3	10.33	S4	9.95
嘉兴市	R6	10.93	S1	10.45	S7	9.87	R3	8.41	R1	7.72
湖州市	R2	12.12	S8	11.09	R6	11.09	S1	8.31	S2	7.97
绍兴市	R1	6.56	S7	6.81	S1	8.31	R4	5.65	R2	12.12
金华市	S4	12.47	S3	11.09	R6	10.53	S1	7.24	S2	6.26
衢州市	S2	13.47	S8	12.99	R6	10.30	R3	7.20	R7	7.17
舟山市	R1	13.40	S4	12.56	R5	11.78	S1	9.99	R7	8.82
台州市	S2	26.87	S5	11.71	R3	11.19	R2	8.33	S9	7.66
丽水市	R5	12.14	S3	10.36	S4	10.26	R3	8.71	R2	8.43