基于势能联系模型的区域潜在经济关系研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在区域一体化背景下，基于资金流通、产业发展、劳动力供给和交通信息4个维度构建指标体系，运用势能联系模型测度2007―2017年长三角潜在经济关系，并从空间格局和网络特征双重视角对测度结果进行深度分析。主要得出如下结论：① 长三角潜在经济关系上升态势明显，空间上表现为典型的“三圈层”结构特征；② 潜在经济关系总体上呈现极化趋势，上海与其他3省域潜在经济关系的基尼系数下降明显，但苏浙皖之间的基尼系数仍在上升；③ 潜在经济关系的点度中心性和中介中心性均呈上升态势，潜在经济关系网络表现为明显的4类凝聚子群结构；④ 长三角经济合作潜力格局呈现空间马太效应，少数城市表现出异质性特征。根据研究结论提出政策建议：优化长三角空间一体化格局，权衡区内与区外经济联系，强化合作潜力大的城市之间的经济联系，完善一体化运行的体制机制。

关键词: 潜在经济关系, 长三角, 空间格局, 网络分析, 区域一体化

Abstract:

With the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta becoming a national strategy, scientific understanding of the potential economic relations and cooperation potential among the core cities in the Yangtze River Delta has become an important theory and contemporary issue. First of all, the paper analyzes the main forming process and driving factors of potential economic relations from two aspects of external environment and internal power. It holds that globalization, localization and informatization promote the formation and evolution of potential economic relations, and explains that competition and cooperation are the key elements to measure potential economic relations from the perspective of mechanism. Then, based on the four dimensions of capital circulation, industrial development, labor supply and traffic information, the index system is constructed. The potential energy connection model is used to calculate the intensity of potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta from 2007 to 2017, and the measurement results are analyzed and mined in depth. The main research conclusions are as follows: 1) From 2007 to 2017, the potential economic relations of the Yangtze River Delta have been on the rise significantly, showing a prominent “three-layer” pattern in space, and this pattern presents a strong spatial stability. 2) The potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta generally showed a spatial polarization trend. The Gini coefficient of potential economic relations between Shanghai and the other three provinces decreased significantly, but the Gini coefficient among the three provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui still showed an upward trend. 3) The degree centrality and intermediate centrality of potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta both have risen during 2007-2017, and the distribution of intermediate centrality became more concentrated. The potential economic relations network shows four types of cohesive subgroup structure. 4) The potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta show the Matthew effect of ‘the strong always strong’ in space, and the heterogeneity of a few cities is obvious, which deserves further attention. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions: optimizing the spatial pattern of “one strong and multi-polar”, weighing the development relations between cities within and outside, strengthening the economic association between cities according to the cooperation potential, and further improving the mechanism of regional integration operation.

Key words: potential economic relations, the Yangtze River Delta, spatial pattern, network analysis, regional integration

中图分类号:

F061.5

蒋自然, 曹卫东, 王成金, 朱华友. 基于势能联系模型的区域潜在经济关系研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 1967-1977.

Jiang Ziran, Cao Weidong, Wang Chengjin, Zhu Huayou. Regional Potential Economic Relations Based on the Potential Energy Connection Model: Empirical Analysis of 26 Cities in Yangtze River Delta[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(12): 1967-1977.

图/表 11

Fig. 1

Table 1

Table 2

图2

Table 3

Table 4

图3

图4

Table 5

Ranking of the intensity of potential economic relations in the Yangtze River Delta in 2007 and 2017（top 20 and bottom 20）"

排序	2007年				2017年
排序	前20位	强度值	后20位	强度值	前20位	强度值	后20位	强度值
1	杭州?宣城	3.576	盐城?安庆	0.351	上海?宣城	4.956	盐城?安庆	0.340
2	上海?宣城	3.462	安庆?滁州	0.392	上海?舟山	4.637	南通?安庆	0.648
3	苏州?舟山	3.424	台州?安庆	0.548	上海?泰州	4.490	镇江?台州	0.726
4	苏州?宣城	3.111	镇江?台州	0.568	杭州?舟山	4.324	扬州?台州	0.761
5	南京?宣城	3.103	扬州?台州	0.581	上海?扬州	4.223	盐城?台州	0.778
6	南京?铜陵	3.094	泰州?台州	0.648	杭州?宣城	4.212	台州?安庆	0.810
7	上海?舟山	3.036	盐城?台州	0.659	上海?镇江	4.103	安庆?滁州	0.820
8	杭州?舟山	2.942	台州?滁州	0.682	南京?宣城	4.043	常州?镇江	0.885
9	合肥?铜陵	2.903	盐城?滁州	0.724	上海?嘉兴	4.025	无锡?常州	0.897
10	南京?马鞍山	2.903	台州?池州	0.797	南京?马鞍山	3.908	南通?台州	0.927
11	上海?泰州	2.892	扬州?泰州	0.825	上海?南通	3.860	常州?台州	0.952
12	杭州?嘉兴	2.872	池州?宣城	0.856	苏州?马鞍山	3.828	南通?盐城	0.986
13	铜陵?安庆	2.830	无锡?常州	0.859	南京?铜陵	3.827	台州?池州	0.990
14	上海?嘉兴	2.821	马鞍山?铜陵	0.872	上海?绍兴	3.812	扬州?池州	1.031
15	南京?滁州	2.814	台州?芜湖	0.880	上海?铜陵	3.733	宁波?合肥	1.052
16	铜陵?滁州	2.773	盐城?金华	0.891	南京?滁州	3.680	台州?滁州	1.073
17	无锡?宣城	2.739	宁波?合肥	0.902	上海?马鞍山	3.678	扬州?安庆	1.078
18	常州?宣城	2.720	扬州?镇江	0.942	上海?常州	3.657	宁波?池州	1.085
19	上海?扬州	2.718	金华?滁州	0.943	南京?泰州	3.629	台州?合肥	1.093
20	苏州?滁州	2.712	舟山?铜陵	0.943	苏州?舟山	3.622	台州?芜湖	1.127

Table 5

图5

Table 6

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评价维度	具体指标	处理方法
资金流通维度	固定资产投资占比	固定资产投资额/GDP
	储蓄水平	年末存贷款余额/GDP
	外贸水平	进出口总额/GDP
	实际利用外资	实际利用外资/GDP
产业发展维度	二产占比	第二产业生产总值/GDP
	三产占比	第三产业生产总值/GDP
	电商发展指数	网商指数×0.5+网购指数×0.5
	市场发展水平	社会消费品零售总额/GDP
劳动力供给维度	二、三产业从业人员比重	第二和第三产业从业人口/总人口
	城镇私企和个体从业人员比重	私营和个体企业从业人口/总人口
	物流业从业人员比重	交通邮政仓储从业人口/总人口
	高校学生人数比重	本科以上学历人口/总人口
	职工工资水平	职工工资总额/GDP
交通信息维度	公路里程	等级以上公路长度/km
	铁路等级	按铁路站点等级进行隶属度赋分
	互联网用户	互联网使用总用户数量/户
	百度指数	通过百度引擎搜索城市的热度

年份	平均数	中位数	标准差	峰度	偏度	最小值	最大值	观测数
2007	1.781	1.696	0.581	?0.147	0.319	0.351	3.576	325
2017	2.190	2.044	0.807	0.207	0.660	0.340	4.956	325

省、市	上海	江苏	浙江	安徽
注：括号内为2017年数据，无括号为2007年数据。
上海	—	2.363（3.697）	2.112（3.378）	2.292（3.591）
江苏	2.363（3.697）	—	1.691（1.976）	1.831（2.207）
浙江	2.112（3.378）	1.691（1.976）	—	1.523（1.933）
安徽	2.292（3.591）	1.831（2.207）	1.523（1.933）	—

省/市	上海	江苏	浙江	安徽
注：括号内为2017年数据，无括号为2007年数据。
上海	—	0.058（0.057）	0.141（0.094）	0.077（0.055）
江苏	0.058（0.057）	—	0.132（0.139）	0.129（0.145）
浙江	0.141（0.094）	0.132（0.139）	—	0.122（0.123）
安徽	0.077（0.055）	0.129（0.145）	0.122（0.123）	—

子群	2007年	2017年
子群1	上海、杭州、南京、合肥	上海、杭州、南京、合肥
子群2	苏州、无锡、常州	苏州、无锡、常州、金华
子群3	湖州、镇江、扬州、盐城、芜湖、铜陵、马鞍山、安庆、滁州、宣城、池州	湖州、南通、镇江、扬州、泰州、盐城、芜湖、铜陵、马鞍山、安庆、滁州、宣城、池州
子群4	南通、泰州、宁波、舟山、嘉兴、台州、金华、绍兴	宁波、舟山、嘉兴、台州、绍兴