地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 2000-2009.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.006
收稿日期:
2020-01-16
修回日期:
2020-04-26
出版日期:
2020-12-25
发布日期:
2021-01-09
通讯作者:
娄金男
E-mail:chenxh440@163.com;2363143541@qq.com
作者简介:
陈晓红(1978−),女,山东日照人,教授,博导,主要研究方向为区域分析与规划,区域协调发展。E-mail:
Chen Xiaohong(), Lou Jinnan(
), Wang Ying
Received:
2020-01-16
Revised:
2020-04-26
Online:
2020-12-25
Published:
2021-01-09
Contact:
Lou Jinnan
E-mail:chenxh440@163.com;2363143541@qq.com
摘要:
哈长城市群作为引领东北地区高质量发展的重要增长极,其城市韧性的提升对提高东北地区高质量发展的强韧性及可持续性具有重要意义。以2010—2018年哈长城市群11个地级市为例,基于“生态?经济?社会?工程”的评估框架构建城市韧性评价体系。采用熵权?TOPSIS评价模型对哈长城市群城市韧性进行综合测度,并运用ArcGIS空间分析工具、BP神经网络模型等方法探讨其时空格局演变规律及动态模拟。结果表明:① 哈长城市群城市韧性整体水平较低;较高、高度韧性主要分布在核心地区,呈“点状零散”分布,低度、较低韧性主要分布在外围地区,呈“边缘广泛分布”的空间格局。② 从其演化趋势类型特征看,2010—2018年,呈发散趋势的城市多于呈收敛趋势的城市,表明城市韧性在演化过程中空间差异呈逐渐增大趋势。③ 经济恢复力、工资收入、金融资本、公共资源保障、教育水平、交通设施水平等是影响哈长城市群城市韧性的主要因素。④ 在动态模拟方面,2020—2030年,城市韧性发展较缓慢,韧性等级逐渐降低,且以一级韧性和二级韧性为主,韧性等级较高的城市所占比重较少。在未来发展趋势上,城市韧性时空差异明显,东西方向上呈现“东高西低”态势,在南北方向上呈“倒U型”式分布,表明哈长城市群内部核心城市韧性高点突出,多数外围城市韧性偏低。
中图分类号:
陈晓红, 娄金男, 王颖. 哈长城市群城市韧性的时空格局演变及动态模拟研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 2000-2009.
Chen Xiaohong, Lou Jinnan, Wang Ying. Evolution and Dynamic Simulation of the Temporal-Spatial Pattern of Urban Resilience in Harbin-Changchun Urban Group[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(12): 2000-2009.
Table 1
Evaluation index system of urban resilience of “Harbin-Changchun” Urban Group"
目标层 | 子目标层 | 指标层 | 指标单位及性质 | 指标含义 |
注:表中“+”号代表该指标为正向指标,“?”号代表该指标为负向指标。 | ||||
城市韧性 | 经济韧性 | 人均GDP(X1) | 元/(+) | 经济总量 |
人均固定资产投资(X2) | 元/人(+) | 投资强度 | ||
第三产业占GDP比重(X3) | %(+) | 经济结构 | ||
实际利用外资金额(X4) | 万美元(+) | 外贸依存度 | ||
公共财政收入占GDP比重(X5) | %(+) | 经济增长 | ||
人均金融机构存款余额(X6) | 元/人(+) | 经济恢复力 | ||
教育支出占财政支出的比重(X7) | %(+) | 教育投入 | ||
科学支出占财政支出的比重(X8) | %(+) | 科技投入 | ||
社会韧性 | 在岗职工平均工资(X9) | 元(+) | 居民工资收入 | |
人均城乡居民存储年末余额(X10) | 元/人(+) | 金融资本 | ||
每万人拥有全市医院、卫生院床位数(X11) | 张(+) | 医疗卫生投入 | ||
公共管理与社会组织人员占总人口比(X12) | %(+) | 社会管理水平 | ||
城镇登记失业人口占总人口比重(X13) | %(?) | 失业结构 | ||
百人公共图书馆藏书(X14) | 册/百人(+) | 公共资源保障 | ||
每万人中普通高等学校在校学生数(X15) | 人(+) | 教育水平 | ||
第三产业从业人员比重(X16) | %(+) | 就业结构 | ||
生态韧性 | 人均绿地面积(X17) | m2(+) | 环境保育水平 | |
建成区绿化覆盖率(X18) | %(+) | 城市绿化水平 | ||
城镇生活污水集中处理率(X19) | %(+) | 环境治理响应 | ||
工业固体废物综合利用率(X20) | %(+) | 废物综合利用 | ||
生活垃圾无害化处理率(X21) | %(+) | 环境整治情况 | ||
万元GDP工业废水排放量(X22) | t(?) | 环境污染压力 | ||
万元GDP工业SO2排放量(X23) | t(?) | 废气排放强度 | ||
工程韧性 | 人均生活用水量(X24) | t(?) | 水资源利用效率 | |
燃气普及率(X25) | %(+) | 燃气资源供给 | ||
人均用电量(X26) | kWh(?) | 电力发展水平 | ||
每万人拥有的公共汽车量(X27) | 辆(+) | 交通设施水平 | ||
人均城市道路面积(X28) | m2(+) | 基础设施建设 | ||
每万人拥有的国际互联网用户数(X29) | 户(+) | 网络普及程度 |
Table 3
Detection of spatial differentiation for urban resilience in the “Harbin-Changchun” Urban Group"
年份 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
注:Xi(i=1,2,…,29)指标含义见 | ||||||||||
2010年 | X6(0.92) | X4(0.89) | X27(0.88) | X13(0.82) | X10(0.79) | X14(0.78) | X19(0.75) | X15(0.74) | X11(0.72) | X9(0.61) |
2014年 | X14(0.97) | X9(0.96) | X10(0.94) | X22(0.93) | X6(0.90) | X15(0.88) | X4(0.84) | X24(0.84) | X11(0.82) | X27(0.81) |
2018年 | X1(0.97) | X4(0.97) | X6(0.96) | X9(0.96) | X10(0.96) | X15(0.95) | X14(0.93) | X29(0.91) | X5(0.88) | X26(0.82) |
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