地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 2010-2018.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.007

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浙江省新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情时空分布特征

白雪1,2(), 乔观民1,2,*(), 李加林1,2, 梅思雨1, 马仁锋1   

  1. 1.宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系/陆海国土空间利用与治理研究中心,浙江 宁波 315211
    2.宁波大学东海研究院, 浙江 宁波 315211
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-23 修回日期:2020-11-10 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-01-09
  • 通讯作者: 乔观民 E-mail:1972726122@qq.com;qiaogm@163.com
  • 作者简介:白雪(1996−),女,硕士,主要从事空间地理信息集成研究。E-mail: 1972726122@qq.com

Spatial-Temporal Distribution Characteristics of COVID-19 Epidemic Disease in Zhejiang Province

Bai Xue1,2(), Qiao Guanmin1,2,*(), Li Jialin1,2, Mei Siyu1, Ma Renfeng1   

  1. 1. Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques, Center for land and marine spatial utilization and governance research, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China
    2. Institute of East China Sea, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China
  • Received:2020-02-23 Revised:2020-11-10 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2021-01-09
  • Contact: Qiao Guanmin E-mail:1972726122@qq.com;qiaogm@163.com

摘要:

以浙江省新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎确诊案例数据库为基础,运用SPSS24.0进行数据挖掘和ArcGIS10.2进行空间分析,发现:① 浙江省病例新增人数时间变化符合泛泊松分布函数,男女易感染率差异不大,典型症状为发热、咳嗽和肺部影像学病变。② 病例感染率具有明显的空间聚集性,总体呈现为“一带四心”格局,“一带”为台?温沿海铁路带的县级地域单元,“四心”为宁波海曙区(11.02/10万),湖州秀洲区(4.29/10万),杭州上城区(4.06/10万)和江干区(4.80/10万),杭州桐庐县(5.78/10万)。③ 核密度集聚中心呈现北?南?北转移的态势,整体呈现“多核多心”“主核固定,多心演化”“单一主核,多心消退”和“疫情消退”4个阶段的空间演化特征。④ 浙江省的扩散率总体呈现先上升后下降态势,空间差异明显,风险管控视角分为5类地区。⑤ 根据疫情演化与传染特征,提出疫情4阶段治理策略,解决公共卫生问题的根本是推动生活圈建设,打造健康城市。

关键词: 浙江省, 新型冠状病毒, 传染扩散, 核密度分析

Abstract:

The new coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia is highly infectious, and its symptoms are hidden, which is seriously damaging to social public security. As the fourth largest epidemic area in China, it is a good case for studying the spatial diffusion of epidemics to explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatial diffusion law of COVID-19. Based on the data of pneumonia cases diagnosed with novel coronavirus infection in Zhejiang Province from January 21 to February 29, 2020, SPSS24.0 was used for data mining and ArcGIS10.2 for spatial analysis The main results are: 1) The temporal variation of the number of new cases in Zhejiang Province has the characteristics of randomness, which conforms to the Poisson distribution function. The difference in infection rates between men and women was not significant. The typical symptoms of COVID-19 were fever, cough and pulmonary imaging lesions. 2) The infection rate showed significant spatial clustering, presenting as ‘One belt and four centers’. ‘One belt’ being the county level regional unit of the Taizhou-Wenzhou coastal railway belt, ‘four centers’ being Haishu district of Ningbo City (11.02/100 000), Xiuzhou district of Huzhou City (4.29/100 000), Shangcheng district of Hangzhou City (4.06/100 000), Jianggan district of Hangzhou City (4.80/100 000), and Tonglu County of Hangzhou City (5.78/100 000). On the whole, the areas with high infection rates are mainly concentrated in the areas with strong commercial exchanges, while the areas with low infection rates are concentrated in the regions with traditional industries and relatively less developed economies. 3) The cluster center of kernel density presents a North-South-North orientation transfer. The spatial evolution characteristics are four stages: ‘multi-core and multi-center’ ‘main nucleus fixation, polycentric evolution’, ‘single main nucleus, polycentric regression’ and ‘epidemic regression’.4) the diffusion rate in Zhejiang Province was first increased from January 29 to February 4, and then decreased from February 5 to February 29. According to the diffusion source, the Epidemic areas can be divided into: ‘no infection risk area’ ‘only endogenous infection with low risk area’ ‘mainly endogenous infection and high risk area’ ‘mainly exogenous infection with controlled high risk area’ ‘only exogenous infection and controllable risk area’. The internal logic of infectious disease deduction is the transmission from exogenous diffusion to endogenous contact. 5) From the evolution of the epidemic and the characteristics of the epidemic, the four-stage treatment strategy is proposed, such as: at the first stage, the fundamental measure for controlling infectious diseases is to cut the source of infection; at the second stage, it is important to promote group governance and prevention, and realize the common governance of the government, enterprises, communities, and individuals; at the third stage, the epidemic situation is classified and regulated to restore production and life; at the final stage, it is necessary to control the imported disease source powerfully. Four stage method is treating symptoms but not root causes. It is the fundamental solution to the public health problem to promote the construction of life circle and build a healthy city.

Key words: Zhejiang Province, COVID-19, diffusion of infection, kernel density analysis

中图分类号: 

  • K901/R181.8