大城市近郊农地流转的时空特征及影响因素

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以武汉市蔡甸区为例，结合多源、多时段的村级农地流转数据，采用探索性空间分析和多元线性回归分析方法，揭示大城市近郊农地流转的时空特征及影响因素。研究发现：① 流转规模呈跨越式增长，经历快速增长和短期减速增长两个阶段，流转速度受土地政策影响较大；农地流转的空间分布由随机转向集聚，高高集聚区由主干道沿线转移至以农业为主的平原街镇，低低集聚区由不显著到集中于城镇化水平较高的街镇；② 控制自然、区位、社会经济等因素后，发现流转主体、流转用途对农地流转具有显著影响。建议清楚把握农地流转时空演化特征，合理选择流转主体和流转用途，以优化大城市近郊的人地关系，促进城乡统筹和乡村振兴。

关键词: 大城市近郊, 农地流转, 土地资本化, 乡村转型, 武汉

Abstract:

The paper takes Caidian district in the suburb of Wuhan as an example, combines panel data of farmland circulation at the village level, and adopts the methods of Exploratory Spatial Analysis and Multiple Linear Regression Model to reveal the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of farmland circulation, respectively. The study finds that: 1) Farmland circulation area shows a leapfrog growth in general, experiences two stages of increasing growth and decreasing growth in specific, and the circulation speed is greatly affected by land policy; The spatial distribution changes from random dispersion to agglomeration. The high-value agglomeration area changes from a few towns along the main road to wide plain agricultural towns, while the low-value agglomeration area changes from inexistence to towns around urban cores; 2) After controlling factors such as geographic conditions, location, socio-economic elements, we find that types of investors and uses for circulation have very significant influence on farmland circulation ratio. The policy implications are as follows: policy implementation should fully consider spatio-temporal characteristics of farmland circulation, focus more on investor types and uses for circulation, to build coordinated relationship between land and people in metropolitan suburbs, and to promote coordinated rural-urban development and rural revitalization.

Key words: metropolitan suburbs, farmland circulation, land capitalization, rural transformation, Wuhan

中图分类号:

K901.2

许红梅, 郭炎, 李志刚, 林赛南, 李娈琼. 大城市近郊农地流转的时空特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 2055-2063.

Xu Hongmei, Guo Yan, Li Zhigang, Lin Sainan, Li Luanqiong. Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Farmland Circulation and Influencing Factors in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Caidian District, Wuhan City[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(12): 2055-2063.

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年份	Moran’s I	E（I）	Sd.	P（I）	Z（I）
注：E（I）为数学期望值；Sd.为标准差；P（I）为显著性水平；Z（I）代表Z检验结果。
2007	0.0179	?0.0035	0.0292	0.1640	0.7187
2008	0.0210	?0.0035	0.0324	0.1710	0.8020
2009	0.0295	?0.0035	0.0373	0.1690	0.8898
2010	0.0619	?0.0035	0.0392	0.0670	1.6850
2011	0.0984	?0.0035	0.0397	0.0110	2.6174
2012	0.2120	?0.0035	0.0404	0.0010	5.3765
2013	0.2489	?0.0035	0.0410	0.0010	6.2185
2014	0.2899	?0.0035	0.0419	0.0010	7.0301
2015	0.2904	?0.0035	0.0417	0.0010	7.0647
2016	0.3002	?0.0035	0.0412	0.0010	7.3799
2017	0.2941	?0.0035	0.0413	0.0010	7.2345

	类别	变量名称	变量含义	均值	标准差
控制因素	自然条件	平均高程/m	村庄平均高程	25.30	6.99
	自然条件	平均坡度/（°）	村庄平均坡度	1.42	0.87
	区位条件	距乡镇中心距离/km	村庄距所在乡镇中心的距离	3.87	2.28
	区位条件	距主干道距离/km	村庄距最近高速、国道和省道距离	1.53	1.74
	社会经济条件	外出务工人口占比/%	村庄外出务工人口/户籍总人口	11.01	6.62
		人均承包耕地面积/hm²	村庄承包耕地总面积/户籍总人口	0.10	0.07
		家庭平均收入/元	村庄农民经营所得总收入/农户数	63584.38	15336.58
		非农收入占比/%	村庄农民外出劳务总收入/农民经营所得总收入	33.90	19.63
关键因素	流转主体	专业大户/hm²	流向专业大户的面积取对数	0.29	0.97
		家庭农场/hm²	流向家庭农场的面积取对数	0.28	0.89
		农民合作社/hm²	流向农民合作社的面积取对数	0.57	1.46
		农业企业/hm²	流向农业企业的面积取对数	1.28	1.86
	流转用途	传统农业/hm²	流向粮食种植的面积取对数	0.68	1.49
		现代农业/hm²	流向花卉苗木、水产养殖、蔬菜种植的面积取对数	1.37	1.94
		休闲农业/hm²	流向休闲旅游的面积取对数	0.20	0.79

自变量	模型一		模型二
自变量	B	t	B	t
注：B为标准化系数； ^、^、^**、为P<0.1、P<0.05、P<0.01；“?”为无此项。
自然条件
平均高程	0.045	0.490	?0.073	?1.089
平均坡度	?0.142	?1.558	?0.038	?0.561
区位条件
距乡镇中心距离	0.050	0.876	0.007	0.171
距主干道距离	?0.212^***	?3.471	?0.077^*	?1.719
社会经济条件
外出务工人口占比	0.068	1.100	0.087^*	1.915
人均承包耕地面积	0.323^***	5.349	?0.064	?1.276
家庭平均收入	0.040	0.704	0.043	1.047
非农收入占比	0.182^***	3.109	0.091^**	2.107
流转主体
专业大户	?	?	?0.022	?0.431
家庭农场	?	?	0.006	0.120
农民合作社	?	?	0.354^***	6.012
农业企业	?	?	0.335^***	4.251
流转用途
传统农业	?	?	0.128^**	2.048
现代农业	?	?	0.247^***	2.972
休闲农业	?	?	0.009	0.184
F	7.102	?	24.924	?
Adjusted R²	0.145	?	0.556	?
Durbin-Watson	2.133	?	2.027	?
样本量	288	?	288	?