地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 2085-2093.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.015

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山区农户双重风险感知对搬迁意愿和搬迁行为的影响

陈勇(), 李青雪, 曹杨(), 徐玉梅   

  1. 四川大学环境与区域发展研究所/四川大学人口研究所,四川 成都 610065
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-05 修回日期:2020-01-04 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-01-09
  • 通讯作者: 曹杨 E-mail:yongchen@scu.edu.cn;yang_cao@scu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:陈勇(1965−),男,四川宣汉人,教授,博士,研究方向为人口、环境与可持续发展。E-mail: yongchen@scu.edu.cn

Impact of Farmers’ Dual Risk Perceptions on Resettlement Intentions and Behaviors: A Case Study of Former Caopo Township in Southwestern China

Chen Yong(), Li Qingxue, Cao Yang(), Xu Yumei   

  1. Institute of Environment and Regional Development, Institute of Population Research, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, Sichuan, China
  • Received:2019-11-05 Revised:2020-01-04 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2021-01-09
  • Contact: Cao Yang E-mail:yongchen@scu.edu.cn;yang_cao@scu.edu.cn

摘要:

以受汶川“5.12”地震和“7.10”特大山洪泥石流灾害严重影响的汶川县原草坡乡为例,从农户风险感知现状出发,考察风险感知对搬迁意愿和搬迁行为的不同影响。研究结果表明:农户对自然灾害风险感知越强、对搬迁安置风险感知越弱,其搬迁意愿越强;较高的自然灾害风险感知会提高农户搬离灾害隐患点或风险区的概率,较强的搬迁安置风险感知会降低农户全家搬迁的可能性;搬迁安置风险感知对未搬迁和部分搬迁农户的影响程度超过自然灾害风险感知的影响。基于汶川县原草坡乡的实证研究,提出避灾搬迁安置决策中的“双重风险感知”假说。

关键词: 避灾搬迁, 搬迁意愿, 搬迁行为, 双重风险感知

Abstract:

In China a large rural population inhabits mountain areas where people are prone to a variety of natural hazards such as flood and landslide. In order to reduce disaster risks, the Chinese government has increasingly and extensively resorted to relocation of people at risk areas. Due to constraints for finding safe places for reconstruction of houses, distant relocation is sometimes seen as an expedient option. However, such resettlement programs, if not well planned and implemented, may incur relocation risks for those displaced, which include landlessness, unemployment, poor housing quality, indebtedness, marginalization, increased cash payment on food, adaptation of climate. Risk perception refers to the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. Existing studies show that attributes of risk and household characteristics may affect people’s risk perception, which may further influence people’s relocation decision-making regarding when and where to migrate. Taking the case of former Caopo Township in Wenchuan county in the southwestern Sichuan Province of China, using sample survey and in-depth interview with rural households, village leaders and local officials, this paper proposes the concepualization of ‘dual risk perceptions’-perception of natural hazard risk and perception of relocation risk: both having informed resettlement intentions and behaviors of people to be displaced. It is concluded that dual risk perceptions have significant and robust consequences on people’s intention to migrate, households with higher perception of natural hazard risk have greater propensity to migrate, while those with a higher perception of relocation risk tend not to migrate. It is also shown that dual risk perceptions have marked consequences on people’s migration behaviors: a stronger perception of relocation risks makes people more likely not to resettle their whole family while a higher perception of natural hazard risk will increase the possibity of people’s relocation from areas at risk; migration intention has significant consequence on behavior of those staying at their origin places, while those having no intention to migrate are more likely not to relocate; family size plays a significant role in people’s migration behaviors as larger families are more likely not relocate the whole family; family income only affects people’ behavior of those who do not relocate as those who have a higher income have a higher propensity to relocate; relocation risk perception is more influenctial than natural hazard risk perception for households whose family members do not totally relocate. Households who are reluctant to migrate show perception of higher relocation risk than natural hazard risk. This research reveals that, although preventive resettlement is planned and implemented for disaster risk reduction, people may apt to remain in areas at risk of disaster if they perceive higher risk arising from relocation. All in all, migration behavior of people living at risk of disaster is a complicated process concerning their perception of disaster risk and relocation risk, relocation intention and household characteristics. All these factors should be taken into account in planning preventive resettlement.

Key words: preventive resettlement, migration intention, migration behavior, dual risk perceptions

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