中国区域水资源系统韧性与效率的发展协调关系评价

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在界定水资源系统韧性概念的基础上，综合应用赋权法、SBM-DEA模型及发展协调度模型对2000—2016年全国31个省区的区域水资源系统的效率、韧性以及两者之间的发展协调关系进行评价。结果如下：① 中国区域水资源系统效率整体上处于非有效区，在研究期间呈现出在波动中上升的趋势。② 中国区域水资源系统韧性的平均值为0.39，总体水平较低，研究期间整体上呈波动上升趋势。③ 中国区域水资源系统效率与韧性的发展度总体呈现平稳上升—较快上升—急剧下降—上升的趋势，呈倒“U”型发展；协调度在研究期间呈现波动中上升趋势，大部分省区的发展度较好，而协调度较弱。④ 2000—2016年，水资源效率与韧性的发展协调度一直维持着“东?中?西”阶梯式递减格局，失调省区的数量降低，初级协调、中级协调、良好协调省区的数量逐渐提升，整体向协调趋势发展；空间格局上呈现由2000年倒“E”型对称式分布格局向如今北部围绕天津、中部围绕上海、南部围绕广东的三级格局演变，格局分布与中国三大经济区基本吻合，可知中国水资源系统效率与韧性的发展协调水平与经济发展水平之间有明显的关系。

关键词: 水资源系统效率, 水资源系统韧性, 复合生态系统, 发展协调关系

Abstract:

On the basis of defining the concept of water resources system resilience, the comprehensive application of the weighting method, the SBM-DEA model, and the development coordination model for the efficiency, resilience, and both of regional water resources systems in 31 provinces and regions in China from 2000 to 2016 Evaluation of the development coordination relationship. The results are as follows: 1) The efficiency of China’s regional water resources system as a whole is in an ineffective zone, and it has shown an upward trend in fluctuations during the study period. 2) The average toughness of regional water resources system in China is 0.39, which is low on the whole and fluctuates on the whole during the study period. 3) The development degree of the efficiency and resilience of China’s regional water resources system generally shows a steady rise—rapid rise—rapid decline—increasing trend, showing an inverted “U” -shaped development; the degree of coordination shows an upward trend in fluctuation during the study period, and most provinces The development degree of the district is good, but the coordination degree is weak. 4) From 2000 to 2016, the coordination degree of the development of water resources efficiency and resilience has maintained a “east-middle-west” stepwise decreasing pattern, the number of imbalanced provinces and regions has decreased, and the number of primary, intermediate, and well-coordinated provinces has gradually increased. The overall development is in a coordinated trend; the spatial pattern has evolved from an inverted “E” symmetrical distribution pattern in 2000 to a three-level pattern that now surrounds Tianjin in the north, Shanghai in the middle, and Guangdong in the south. The pattern distribution is similar to the three economic zones in China. Basically, we can see that there is a clear relationship between the level of coordinated development of the efficiency and resilience of China’s water resources system and the level of economic development.

Key words: water resource system efficiency, water resource system resilience, complex ecosystem, development coordination relationship

中图分类号:

F129.9

孙才志, 孟程程. 中国区域水资源系统韧性与效率的发展协调关系评价[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 2094-2104.

Sun Caizhi, Meng Chengcheng. Evaluation of the Development Coordination Relationship Between Resilience and Efficiency of Regional Water Resources System in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(12): 2094-2104.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

2000—2016年中国水资源系统效率和韧性测度结果

年份	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016	平均值
注：受篇幅限制，本文选取偶数年份发展水平；表中数值为水资源效率/水资源韧性。
北京	1.00/0.74	0.92/0.67	0.88/0.72	0.86/0.74	0.91/0.70	1.00/0.70	1.00/0.71	0.99/0.68	1.00/0.69	0.93/0.71
天津	0.64/0.52	1.00/0.53	0.88/0.56	0.92/0.51	1.00/0.50	0.91/0.53	0.99/0.55	0.94/0.47	1.00/0.48	0.92/0.51
河北	0.27/0.38	0.29/0.37	0.43/0.36	0.47/0.36	0.50/0.36	0.50/0.35	0.46/0.40	0.44/0.36	0.51/0.39	0.44/0.38
山西	0.50/0.36	0.40/0.34	0.49/0.37	0.51/0.38	0.49/0.37	0.44/0.36	0.41/0.39	0.38/0.33	0.39/0.37	0.44/0.36
内蒙古	1.00/0.35	0.66/0.34	0.43/0.33	0.43/0.34	0.46/0.34	0.46/0.34	0.46/0.34	0.42/0.34	0.44/0.36	0.52/0.34
辽宁	0.48/0.44	0.45/0.43	0.55/0.44	0.56/0.39	0.57/0.39	0.55/0.39	0.49/0.39	0.45/0.40	0.50/0.37	0.51/0.41
吉林	0.58/0.36	0.37/0.38	0.42/0.35	0.45/0.38	0.45/0.36	0.42/0.33	0.42/0.33	0.38/0.32	0.41/0.34	0.43/0.35
黑龙江	0.28/0.34	0.28/0.32	0.36/0.33	0.39/0.34	0.40/0.33	0.41/0.35	0.41/0.34	0.39/0.32	0.40/0.34	0.37/0.34
上海	0.69/0.66	0.70/0.69	0.78/0.71	0.86/0.69	0.91/0.63	0.96/0.58	1.00/0.62	0.88/0.60	1.00/0.63	0.85/0.65
江苏	0.39/0.59	0.38/0.58	0.58/0.61	0.63/0.62	0.78/0.67	0.97/0.73	1.00/0.64	0.70/0.65	0.91/0.69	0.70/0.64
浙江	0.40/0.51	0.44/0.50	0.63/0.56	0.63/0.58	0.64/0.54	0.62/0.58	0.56/0.51	0.63/0.55	0.87/0.64	0.61/0.55
安徽	0.30/0.17	0.31/0.16	0.46/0.18	0.49/0.19	0.54/0.18	0.57/0.16	0.55/0.20	0.48/0.19	0.52/0.23	0.47/0.38
福建	0.36/0.43	0.39/0.43	0.53/0.45	0.58/0.47	0.62/0.40	0.61/0.42	0.52/0.41	0.48/0.39	0.50/0.42	0.52/0.43
江西	0.32/0.37	0.31/0.36	0.39/0.38	0.39/0.41	0.42/0.38	0.43/0.38	0.39/0.40	0.36/0.42	0.38/0.42	0.38/0.38
山东	0.48/0.46	0.38/0.44	0.53/0.48	0.56/0.46	0.62/0.43	0.69/0.50	0.71/0.44	0.67/0.46	0.86/0.51	0.60/0.49
河南	0.25/0.35	0.26/0.36	0.36/0.37	0.38/0.27	0.39/0.36	0.37/0.29	0.34/0.36	0.30/0.35	0.32/0.37	0.33/0.36
湖北	0.27/0.32	0.29/0.30	0.40/0.29	0.44/0.31	0.50/0.29	0.52/0.26	0.49/0.30	0.43/0.32	0.45/0.32	0.42/0.31
湖南	0.32/0.37	0.30/0.38	0.40/0.38	0.42/0.16	0.44/0.17	0.45/0.15	0.41/0.16	0.40/0.15	0.42/0.16	0.40/0.36
广东	0.39/0.59	0.43/0.58	0.70/0.55	0.87/0.59	1.00/0.51	1.00/0.55	1.00/0.56	0.87/0.58	1.00/0.53	0.82/0.56
广西	0.31/0.26	0.31/0.25	0.43/0.29	0.45/0.28	0.48/0.29	0.48/0.26	0.42/0.27	0.39/0.27	0.42/0.25	0.41/0.27
海南	0.81/0.43	0.97/0.41	0.95/0.38	0.91/0.38	1.00/0.44	1.00/0.39	0.91/0.39	0.78/0.37	0.82/0.43	0.90/0.40
重庆	1.00/0.44	0.46/0.46	0.56/0.46	0.58/0.46	0.60/0.38	0.62/0.37	0.61/0.36	0.55/0.38	0.64/0.41	0.61/0.41
四川	0.67/0.39	0.87/0.37	0.94/0.39	1.00/0.36	0.60/0.37	0.63/0.35	1.00/0.35	0.61/0.40	0.70/0.40	0.81/0.38
贵州	0.28/0.12	0.25/0.13	0.31/0.14	0.33/0.14	0.38/0.13	0.40/0.20	0.40/0.13	0.35/0.17	0.35/0.16	0.34/0.17
云南	0.25/0.18	0.27/0.15	0.38/0.15	0.38/0.15	0.37/0.12	0.39/0.12	0.35/0.12	0.32/0.11	0.32/0.13	0.34/0.19
西藏	1.00/0.24	1.00/0.26	0.85/0.27	0.86/0.26	0.80/0.26	0.85/0.24	0.84/0.26	0.67/0.27	0.73/0.29	0.78/0.31
陕西	0.30/0.27	0.31/0.27	0.37/0.29	0.39/0.27	0.41/0.24	0.39/0.31	0.37/0.27	0.34/0.27	0.35/0.30	0.36/0.27
甘肃	1.00/0.23	0.49/0.23	0.53/0.25	0.50/0.26	0.51/0.23	0.49/0.27	0.47/0.24	0.41/0.25	0.40/0.24	0.52/0.24
青海	1.00/0.25	0.62/0.25	0.85/0.24	0.77/0.25	0.69/0.26	0.69/0.29	0.70/0.23	0.60/0.22	0.59/0.25	0.70/0.24
宁夏	1.00/0.24	1.00/0.25	1.00/0.25	0.69/0.26	0.74/0.23	0.76/0.31	0.66/0.23	0.57/0.21	0.61/0.21	0.77/0.23
新疆	0.28/0.19	0.26/0.20	0.31/0.15	0.30/0.14	0.33/0.13	0.33/0.13	0.32/0.15	0.28/0.15	0.27/0.22	0.30/0.17

表2

图2

图3

表3

图4

表4

图5

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目标层	准则层	指标层	单位	属性	权重
注:“+”为正向指标；“−”为负向指标。
经济因素	经济结构	产业结构优化度	%	+	0.0848
	经济发展水平	人均GDP	元	+	0.0506
	金融环境	实际外商直接投资	亿元	+	0.0890
社会因素	科技发展	R&D经费占GDP比重	%	+	0.0234
	创新能力	科技市场成交额	万元	+	0.1064
	人口发展	万人拥有医生数	人	+	0.0417
		失业率	%	−	0.0412
	政府管理	水资源政策和法规	个	+	0.0617
		水信访数量	封	−	0.0587
	文化因素	水文化相关的活动	个	+	0.0791
	用水结构	工业用水比值	%	+	0.0360
		农业用水比重	%	+	0.0160
	基础设施	供水管道密度		+	0.0446
		排水管道密度		+	0.0424
资源环境因素	水资源禀赋	人均水资源量	m³/人	+	0.1578
	资源环境承载力	灰水足迹强度	m³/亿元	−	0.0237
	环保投资	污染治理投资总额占GDP比重	%	+	0.0427

变化趋势曲线类型	省区	变化趋势曲线类型	省区
平稳型	京、津、冀、皖、赣、豫、鄂、湘、桂、黔、云、陕、甘、新	波动型	渝
下降型	藏、黑、吉、辽、蒙、晋	上升型	苏、鲁、川、沪
倒U型	闽、粤、浙、琼	正U型	宁、青