中国人地关系的系统结构及2050年趋势模拟

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.02.001

地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 187-197.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.02.001

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中国人地关系的系统结构及2050年趋势模拟

李小云¹^,²^,³(), 杨宇¹^,²^,³^,*(), 刘毅¹^,²^,³, 陈源源⁴, 夏四友¹^,²

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049
3. 粤港澳大湾区战略研究院，广东广州 510070
4. 天津商业大学公共管理学院，天津 300134

收稿日期:2019-12-05 出版日期:2021-04-10 发布日期:2021-04-13
通讯作者: 杨宇 E-mail:lixy.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn;yangyu@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:李小云（1989−），女，河南新乡人，助理研究员，主要研究方向为人地关系与区域可持续发展。E-mail: lixy.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国博士后科学基金项目（2019M660775）、广东省科学院发展专项资金项目（2020GDASYL-20200102002）、粤港澳大湾区战略研究院建设专项（2019GDASYL-0202001）、国家自然科学基金项目(41430636)、中国科学院青年创新促进会项目（2018069）资助

The Systematic Structure and Trend Simulation of China’s Man-land Relationship Until 2050

Li Xiaoyun¹^,²^,³(), Yang Yu¹^,²^,³^,*(), Liu Yi¹^,²^,³, Chen Yuanyuan⁴, Xia Siyou¹^,²

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Institute of Strategy Research for the Guangdong Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China
4. School of Public Management of Tianjin Commerce University, Tianjin 300134, China

Received:2019-12-05 Online:2021-04-10 Published:2021-04-13
Contact: Yang Yu E-mail:lixy.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn;yangyu@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2019M660775), Special Foundation Project of Guangdong Academy of Sciences (2020GDASYL-20200102002), Construction Project of Institute of Strategy Research for the Guangdong Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (2019GDASYL-0202001), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41430636), the Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences (2018069)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人地关系是地理学的永恒研究主题，也是助推可持续发展理念落实的关键科学问题。基于系统理论，运用系统动力学方法，探究人地关系的内在结构及要素关联，进而构建人地系统模型，模拟在基础模式和调控模式2种发展情景下至2050年中国人地关系的发展趋势及核心特征。结果表明：在以人口?经济?社会?资源?环境组成的现代人地系统中，存在4条核心的正负反馈回路，5类要素在系统中具有不同角色：人口是主因，经济是促因，资源是支撑，环境是表征，社会是调控。2017―2050年，若任由现今的人地相处模式延续下去，核心资源环境要素将始终处于高压状态，人地系统面临崩溃风险。而在承载多种政策意图的调控发展模式下，虽然核心资源要素依然有超载状态，但系统整体趋势向好，人地关系将迎来拐点期。未来相关政策调控还需持续在能源供需缺口及减排目标上多做努力。

关键词: 人地关系, 未来趋势, 系统动力学, 模拟, 中国

Abstract:

Man-land relationship is the eternal research subject of geography and the key scientific issue to promote the implementation of sustainable development. Based on systematic thought, this paper applies system dynamic method that is good at dealing with complex interactive relations to explore the internal structure and element correlation of man-land relationships, and to construct man-land system model to simulate the development trend and core characteristics of China’s man-land relationship until the middle of this century under the two development scenarios, that is basic mode and regulatory mode. The results show that, in the contemporary man-land system composed of population, economy, society, resources and environment, there are four core positive and negative feedback loops, and the aforementioned five factors play different roles in the system, which can be summarized as: population is the main cause, economy is the promoting cause, resources are the foundation, environment is the representation, and society is the regulation. From 2017 to 2050, if the current man-land relationship mode is allowed to continue, the core resources and environmental factors will always be under high pressure, and the man-land system will face the risk of collapse. However, under the regulatory development mode bearing multiple policy intentions, although the core resource factors are still overloaded, the overall trend of the system is positive, and the man-land relationship will meet its inflection point. In the future, relevant policy regulation needs to continue to make more efforts in the gap between energy supply and demand, as well emission reduction targets.

Key words: man-land relationship, future trend, system dynamic, simulation, China

中图分类号:

K901

李小云, 杨宇, 刘毅, 陈源源, 夏四友. 中国人地关系的系统结构及2050年趋势模拟[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(2): 187-197.

Li Xiaoyun, Yang Yu, Liu Yi, Chen Yuanyuan, Xia Siyou. The Systematic Structure and Trend Simulation of China’s Man-land Relationship Until 2050[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(2): 187-197.

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指标	模式	2016年	2020年	2030年	2040年	2050年
人口增长/‰	基础模式	5.9	2.0	−0.7	−3.5	−6.5
人口增长/‰	调控模式	5.9	4.0	1.3	−1.0	−3.7
经济增长/%	基础模式	6.7	7.9	7.4	7.2	7.1
经济增长/%	调控模式	6.7	6.7	5.5	4.5	2.5
能源供给增长/%	基础模式	−0.4	3.5	2.6	1.9	0.0
能源供给增长/%	调控模式	−0.4	3.4	3.4	3.4	3.4
能源消费增长/%	基础模式	4.5	4.8	4.0	3.3	2.9
能源消费增长/%	调控模式	4.5	3.5	1.3	0.0	−1.4
能源需求弹性	—	0.8	0.98	0.7	0.4	0.35
能源结构因子	—	1.0	0.99	0.98	0.96	0.95
技术因子	—	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4

中国人地关系的系统结构及2050年趋势模拟

The Systematic Structure and Trend Simulation of China’s Man-land Relationship Until 2050

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