高质量发展耦合协调时空格局演化及影响因素——以浙江省县域为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.02.005

地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 223-231.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.02.005

高质量发展耦合协调时空格局演化及影响因素——以浙江省县域为例

化祥雨¹^,²(), 金祥荣¹^,³^,*(), 吕海萍⁴, 叶娅芬⁵, 邵元海⁶

1. 浙江大学经济学院，浙江杭州 310027
2. 浙江省经济信息中心（浙江省价格研究所），浙江杭州 310006
3. 宁波大学商学院，浙江宁波 315211
4. 浙江科技学院经济与管理学院，浙江杭州 310023
5. 浙江工业大学经济学院，浙江杭州 310023
6. 海南大学管理学院，海南海口570228

收稿日期:2019-11-04 出版日期:2021-04-10 发布日期:2021-04-13
通讯作者: 金祥荣 E-mail:hxy9069@163.com;jinxiangrong@sina.com
作者简介:化祥雨（1989−），男，河南禹州人，博士，副研究员，主要研究方向为经济地理学、机器学习。E-mail: hxy9069@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（11871183，61866010，11926349）、浙江省自然科学基金项目（LQ19D010001，LY18G010018）、浙江省软科学研究计划项目（2019C35010）、浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目（21NDJC198YB）、浙江省哲学社会科学领军人才培育课题（引进人才支持）（21YJRC07ZD，21YJRC07-1YB）资助

Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of High Quality Development Coupling Coordination: Case on Counties of Zhejiang Province

Hua Xiangyu¹^,²(), Jin Xiangrong¹^,³^,*(), Lyu Haiping⁴, Ye Yafen⁵, Shao Yuanhai⁶

1. School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang, China
2. Zhejiang Economic Information Center (Zhejiang Price Research Institute), Hangzhou 310006, Zhejiang, China
3. Business School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China
4. School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou 310023, Zhejiang, China
5. School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, Zhejiang, China
6. School of Management, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, Hainan, China

Received:2019-11-04 Online:2021-04-10 Published:2021-04-13
Contact: Jin Xiangrong E-mail:hxy9069@163.com;jinxiangrong@sina.com
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China (11871183, 61866010, 11926349), Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (LQ19D010001, LY18G010018), Soft Science Research Program of Zhejiang Province (2019C35010), Philosophy and Social Science Planning General Project of Zhejiang Province (21NDJC198YB), Philosophy and Social Sciences Leading Talent Training Project of Zhejiang Province (21YJRC07ZD, 21YJRC07-1YB)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

综合运用耦合协调、空间关联分析和地理加权回归模型，对浙江省县域高质量发展耦合协调水平进行测度，进一步分析其空间演化特征及影响因素。结果表明：① 浙江省县域高质量发展整体上呈现出“东高西低、北高南低”的空间分异特征，高质量发展耦合空间格局以良好耦合为主，高质量发展协调水平以中级协调为主。② 高质量发展耦合协调空间结构呈现出向环杭州湾高度集聚态势，空间耦合冷热点区变化显著，空间演化路径以递次转移为主、跨级转移为辅，空间协调冷热点区分布格局比较稳定。③ 高质量协调发展影响因素具有明显地域特征，其作用强度自经济实力、集聚能力、政府财政支持和基础设施依次递减。

关键词: 高质量发展, 耦合协调, 时空格局演化, 地理加权回归

Abstract:

By using the entropy method, the mean square deviation weighting method, the coupling coordination model, the spatial correlation analysis method, and GWR model, the research studied the dynamic coupling coordination level, spatial-temporal pattern differentiation and influencing factors of the high quality development in counties of Zhejiang Province. It shows that over the past 10 years, the spatial differentiation of the high quality development in Zhejiang Province has shown the overall spatial characteristics of ‘high development in the east, low development in the west, high development in the north and low development in the south’; The coupling spatial pattern of high quality development is relatively stable, with good coupling as the main factor, and the coordination level of high quality development is relatively low, with intermediate coordination as the main factor, and the counties with high coupling and coordination are mainly concentrated in the area around Hangzhou Bay; The dynamic coupling and coordination spatial structure of high quality development of counties in Zhejiang Province shows a high agglomeration trend around Hangzhou Bay, with significant changes in the spatial coupling cold hot spots and spatial coordination cold hot spots, with evolution path dominated by successive transfer and supplemented by cross-level transfer, the distribution pattern is relatively stable. The influence factors of coordination of high quality development have obvious regional characteristics. The intensity of its influence factors decreases from economic strength, agglomeration capacity, government financial support and infrastructure in turn.

Key words: high quality development, coupling coordination, temporal spatial pattern evolution, geographically weighted regression

中图分类号:

F124

化祥雨, 金祥荣, 吕海萍, 叶娅芬, 邵元海. 高质量发展耦合协调时空格局演化及影响因素——以浙江省县域为例[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(2): 223-231.

Hua Xiangyu, Jin Xiangrong, Lyu Haiping, Ye Yafen, Shao Yuanhai. Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of High Quality Development Coupling Coordination: Case on Counties of Zhejiang Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(2): 223-231.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
创新发展	创新投入	R&D经费内部支出/亿元、科学研究和技术服务业从业人员比例/%
	创新产出	专利申请数/项、专利授权数/项
	创新环境	规模以上工业总产值/亿元、移动电话用户数量/万个、规模以上工业企业单位数/个
协调发展	城乡协调	农村与城镇居民人均收入比/%、工业化率/%
	产业协调	第一产业比较劳动生产率/%、第二产业比较劳动生产率/%、第三产业比较劳动生产率/%
	金融协调	存款余额︰GDP/%、贷款余额︰GDP/%
绿色发展	低碳循环	单位GDP电耗/（kW·h/万元）、单位耕地面积农业化肥使用量/（t/hm²）、民用汽车拥有量/辆
绿色发展	环境治理	有效灌溉面积/10³ hm²、水利、环境和公共设施管理业就业人员比例/%、农作物播种面积/10³ hm²
开放发展	对内开放	社会消费品零售总额占GDP比重/%、客运量/万人、货运量/万t
开放发展	对外开放	进口总额/亿元）、出口总额/亿元、外商投资企业单位数/个、实际使用外资金额/亿元
共享发展	医疗卫生	医院卫生院床位数/个、每10³人口执业（助理）医师数/人
	收入分配	人均可支配收入占人均GDP比重/%、居民最低生活保障线以下人数/人、就业率/%
	公共服务	社会福利院床位数/个、体育场馆数/个、公共图书馆藏书量/本

时间	判别指标	耦合度		协调度
时间	判别指标	邻接权重	距离权重	邻接权重	距离权重
2005年	Z得分	1.9706	1.7353	1.7121	−0.4805
	P值	0.0488^**	0.0827^*	0.0869^*	0.6309
	空间形态类型	高集聚	高集聚	高集聚	随机分布
2010年	Z得分	2.5816	2.2435	1.9055	0.0548
	P值	0.0098^***	0.0249^**	0.0567^*	0.9563
	空间形态类型	高集聚	高集聚	高集聚	随机分布
2017年	Z得分	2.3764	2.0339	2.0019	0.0890
	P值	0.0175^**	0.0420^**	0.0453^**	0.9291
	空间形态类型	高集聚	高集聚	高集聚	随机分布

高质量发展耦合协调时空格局演化及影响因素——以浙江省县域为例

Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of High Quality Development Coupling Coordination: Case on Counties of Zhejiang Province

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