中文核心期刊的时空分异特征及影响因素

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.02.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取1992—2017年版中文核心期刊（简称核心期刊），运用Moore结构值测算其内部结构变化，利用重心模型计算重心位置，通过GIS可视化分析其时空分异特征，采用普通最小二乘法评估影响模型的合理性，通过地理探测器模型定量分析其时空分异的影响因素。结果表明：1992—2017年版核心期刊数量经历“下降?上升?逐步稳定”的发展过程，以“胡焕庸线”为界东西分异明显，呈现“整体分散，局部集聚”的空间特征；内部结构变化普遍存在且程度不一，西部地区变化明显高于东中部；核心期刊重心呈东部集聚态势，阶段性特征显著；核心期刊空间分异是多因素综合作用的结果，影响因素会因时而变、因区而变，科技因素是核心期刊空间分异的主要影响因素，经济和教育影响力次之，社会和政策是影响其分布的一般因素。

关键词: 中文核心期刊, Moore结构值, 重心模型, 地理探测器模型

Abstract:

Based on the contents of Chinese core journals (core journals) from 1992 to 2017, this article uses Moore structure value to calculate the internal structure change of core journals, calculate the position of gravity center by gravity center model, analyzes its spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics through GIS visualization, assess the rationality of the impact model by ordinary least squares, and quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of spatial and temporal differentiation of core journals through geographic detector model. The results show that the number of core journals has experienced development process of ‘decline-rise-gradual stability’ from 1992 to 2017, and the East-West differentiation is obvious with ‘Heihe-Tengchong Line’ as the boundary, showing the spatial characteristics of ‘overall dispersion and local agglomeration’. The change of internal structure is ubiquitous and different, and the change of internal structure in the west is higher than that in the east and the middle. The center of gravity of core journals shows a trend of eastern agglomeration with significant features in stages. The spatial differentiation of core journals is the result of the comprehensive effects of many factors, the influential factors of core journals will vary from time and region, science and technology factors are the main influencing factors of the spatial differentiation of core journals, followed by economic and educational influence, and social and policy factors are the general influencing factors of the distribution of core journals.

Key words: Chinese core journals, Moore structure value, Barycenter model, Geodetector

中图分类号:

K902

刘海龙, 谢亚林, 王虎, 李曼. 中文核心期刊的时空分异特征及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(2): 243-251.

Liu Hailong, Xie Yalin, Wang Hu, Li Man. Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Chinese Core Journals[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(2): 243-251.

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类别	分类依据	1992年版	1996年版	2000年版	2004年版	2008年版	2011年版	2014年版	2017年版
“胡焕庸线”	以西/%	6.70	6.30	5.65	5.52	5.96	6.67	6.25	6.02
“胡焕庸线”	以东/%	93.30	93.70	94.35	94.48	94.04	93.9	93.75	93.98
主办城市结构	直辖市/个	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
	省会城市/个	27	26	27	26	27	27	27	27
	其他城市/个	70	59	53	58	60	65	65	68
主办城市占比	直辖市/%	48.40	53.97	53.83	50.92	50.17	48.36	48.79	49.85
	省会城市/%	43.72	37.65	38.84	40.29	41.54	43.00	42.84	41.27
	其他城市/%	7.88	8.38	7.34	8.79	8.29	8.64	8.38	8.88

版本	华东地区	华南地区	华北地区	华中地区	东北地区	西南地区	西北地区
1992年	X₁₄	X₈、X₅	X₁₄、X₆	X₈、X₁₄	X₉、X₆	X₈、X₅、X₇	X₁₅
1996年	X₁₄	X₅、X₇	X₁₄、X₁₃	X₈、X₂	X₉、X₆	X₉	X₁₅、X₅
2000年	X₁₄	X₅、X₃	X₁₄、X₁₃	X₈、X₃	X₉、X₆	X₇	X₁₅、X₉
2004年	X₁₄、X₇	X₅、X₈	X₁₄、X₅	X₃、X₁₃	X₉、X₆	X₉	X₁₅
2008年	X₁₄	X₅、X₉	X₁₄、X₅、X₇、X₃	X₃、X₁₃	X₇、X₆	X₉	X₁₅
2011年	X₁₄	X₅、X₈	X₁₄、X₅	X₁、X₆	X₅、X₁₅	X₈、X₃、X₂、X₆	X₁₅、X₈
2014年	X₁₄	X₅、X₉	X₁₄、X₈	X₂、X₁₅	X₉、X₆	X₈、X₅、X₄、X₆	X₁、X₄、X₁₅、X₉
2017年	X₁₄	X₉、X₈	X₁₄、X₈、X₇、X₂	X₁₅、X₇	X₉、X₆	X₇	X₁₅

解释变量	1992年	1996年	2000年	2004年	2008年	2011年	2014年	2017年	平均值
科技因素	0.9058	0.9750	0.9779	0.9770	0.9733	0.9713	0.9725	0.9707	0.9604
经济因素	0.3071	0.3895	0.4882	0.4778	0.4037	0.4948	0.4895	0.3866	0.4297
教育因素	0.4682	0.4428	0.4164	0.3979	0.3049	0.3461	0.3467	0.3430	0.3832
社会因素	0.1411	0.1826	0.3038	0.2687	0.3131	0.2925	0.2622	0.2987	0.2578
政策因素	0.1488	0.1374	0.2702	0.2205	0.2213	0.2045	0.1955	0.1370	0.1919